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The GFS and NOGAPS have a different pattern...with
more ridging extending westward to the north of Ike that keeps the
hurricane moving basically westward. The ECMWF has done very well
with Ike thus far...and has relatively high skill in forecasting
the large scale patterns at the longer ranges. Out of respect for
this model the official forecast is shifted slightly slower and to
the right of the previous forecast...and is pretty close to the
dynamical model consensus.

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The problem here is speed of the system. The GFS is fast to the west, and if that is the case, the implication is the stronger ridge to the north gets the storm quicker to the west and then there is no turn northwest till after landfall near BRO.

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A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas
There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.

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