To piggy back off keegan, no matter the country, area, state, wearing masks, not wearing masks, lockdowns, no lockdowns, etc. It seems to follow the same pattern everywhere. A really quick spike/surge (we are going through that in texas), then a steady fall afterwards long before what would be perceived as herd immunity, which indicates a very high percentage has some kind of natural immunity / defense for this. Yes, extra social distancing measures and masks might help the fall too, but I think it goes well beyond that.
I've been convinced for a long time that herd immunity will beat the vaccine, although I'll gladly take the vaccine if possible. Particularly if it prevents future waves assuming natural immunity might not last forever. To me, that's what good the vaccine will do. Not to really help much in this run of the disease, but to prevent it from flaring up in the future.