Don't know if you guys saw this, but she broke 2 school records against UNT, and beat the winning score from the 3-m at NCAA's last year (which was the pool record).

http://www.aggieathletics.com/sports/w-swim/recaps/020610aab.html

Guess that extended stay at home did her some good!

It was one heck of a performance. I knew she was good before but wow...

Big12s in just over two weeks. We're gonna need those diving points.

Anyone tried to handicap the meet?

Thought about it, but it's really hard without lineups. Jaeles diving ought make us a favorite, if we weren't already. Heiss and Wilkinson seem to be on a mission this year.

Maybe I'll make a best guess later just to see what happens.

I think the meet should be close. tu will come in as the favorite due to their higher ranking all year and by virtue of winning the dual meet. But the Big12s have different scoring - 2nd, 3rd, etc. is worth more.

There should be very few sure things in this meet. Probably Alia in breaststroke and Hersey in fly. Alia's wins in breaststroke will unfortunately be offset by tu taking 2-4th.

I'll guess on the following wins:

A&M
Wilkinson (100free, 200free, 200IM)
Alia (100 breast, 200 breast)
Heiss (500 free, 200 back)
Patrick (1 board, sweep unlikely)

tu
Hersey (100 fly, 200 fly)
Gingrich (400 IM, 1650)
Bispo (?)

We could split the medley relays and freestyle relays.

Some big swims could come from Maureen Mclaine in the 500 and 1650. She has been huge this year. Can Chernoff hang with Hersey in the 100 fly?

tu could over-use Hersey - who could finish 1 or 2 in a bunch of events - and leave her too tired.

It should be a great meet!

Bispo hasn't been swimming great as of late. Maria actually will come in as the top seed in the 50 free, which is awesome. That would be a huge bonus if she could pull off that win.

I think Gingrich is too good this season for Maureen to pull off the upset, but it'd be a hell of a thing if she did! McLaine is improving fast though, and could be the class of the conference next year.

My big ? is what is Alia going to swim besides the breaststrokes? She's got a chance at medaling in quite a few other events, and since she's got her A cuts/is such a heavy favorite in the Br, she'll probably swim a full gauntlet of events. If she can place high in some of her peripherals (200 I.M, 50 free) that could be a huge boost.

It's really hard to peg everything, since t.u. swam all of their best times the December 3rd weekend, and our girls swam theirs the november 20th weekend. Other than the top 2 spots, it's tough to peg the rest of the positions. Guess we'll have to wait and see!

Goblu - based on recent swims Alia doesn't look good either. Beaten recently in the 100 and just not fast. None of our girls have had a decent 50 recently except Wilkinson on a relay.

But I assume they'll all be ready to race in two weeks.

I am all around more optimistic though than I was at the beginning of the season. tu hasn't been quite as fast as predicted. We'll soon see how well Brackins gets her girls ready.

quote:

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Goblu - based on recent swims Alia doesn't look good either.

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Good point! Should be a good meet all around.

It seems to me as though we still have a little more depth to fill out our relays without having to reach too far down our lineups, so I think we'll win more of those than we lose.

Spicewood - Sarah Woods dropped a very nice 22.51 relay split against UH on Friday the went 22.8 the next day. Those are pretty solid

I wouldn't worry about Alia...when it's time to get up and go, she will. She always has. As a wild guess, I would think she would swim the IM because her breaststroke is just too much better than most of the other ladies that will swim it. She's a sub-2 minute IMer snd that will place in the top four. I think placing that high for her in the 50 free would be more difficult with Sommer, Woods, Bispo and Adams in there.

[This message has been edited by Look Out Below (edited 2/9/2010 9:57p).]

The IM makes sense because it is on the first day (with no breastroke events). Shes a heck of a butterflyer too, I think she scored really well 2 years ago in the 100 fly (3rd maybe?). But that is on the same day as her 100 breast. Who knows tho, i guess it could be either. Doubt she will do the 50 tho, LOB is right, that event is stacked to begin with, and breaking into the top is so much more difficult in such a short race.

LOB - not trying to be argumentative. Those 50 times were all relay splits, and only the 22.51 is close to sub-23 flat start. Wilkinson split 22.35 with a safe .42 RT - easily sub 23.

I'm not saying the 22.51 is a bad time. But is has been awhile since anyone flat started below 23. We don't have anyone with Triin's speed (and neither does tu). The race should be good. What do we think it will take to win? 22.4?

As for Alia's other events. I agree based on event scheduling the 200 IM makes sense. I can't imagine her racing 100 fly on the same day as the 100 breast.

Yes the times they have swam just recently overall haven't been what we saw say in November, however, you also have to take into account where they are in the season. They are only a few weeks out from Big 12s! They are all tired from holiday training and you know Steve hasn't let up on the intensity since then. He wants to make sure that everyone finishes off with a great base to be able to rest from. I am just amazed at how well some of them are doing and I credit that to the person. There are just so many girls on the team that are natural born racers and no matter how tired they are or how much they hurt, they don't let that even bother them. I am excited to see how our girls and boys teams do at the meet coming up here in 2 weeks.

Please don't get me wrong. I am optimistic. I completely understand the taper process. I know how Steve's (and Tracy's) teams have swum in the past.

Neither tu nor A&M has a dominant sprinter this year. In the past Triin almost always won the 50. This year it should be much closer.

If I had to guess about Alia - Steve is training Alia to peak for the NCAAs as much as possible and Alia will not be completely rested for Big12s.

I think the 50 is wide open. Any one of those four I mentioned earlier can win it. I think it will take a 22.3 but I think any of those four are capable of that.

Traditionsgal is giving you some good first-hand insight on how the girls train too. 'Awhile' would mean the last, and only, time they rested at all this season.

[This message has been edited by Look Out Below (edited 2/10/2010 3:23p).]

Can someone lay out exactly how divers affect roster limits? If I understand correctly, if they dive no more than 2 events, then they can count as 1/3 of a roster spot. Is this right?

For diving only, 1 spot on the A team roster = six events; you can divide it up however you like...for instance:

1) 2 girls doing 3 events
2) 3 girls doing 2 events
3) 1 girl doing 3 events, 1 girl doing 2 events and one girl doing 1 event

It's pretty limitless. All you have to keep in mind is 1 A team roster spot = 6 events.

Oh and Spicewood, I annually handicap the meet in great detail. I'm not going to say what I came up with since many of the ladies cruise this forum but I will say what I came up with was so close that the chances are good that the meet may not be decided until the final relay (not necessarily who wins the final relay like in 2007, but not far from it). Every point will matter.

[This message has been edited by Look Out Below (edited 2/11/2010 1:45p).]

LOB, thanks for the info.

In vague terms, what do you use to decide events? For example, Hersey didn't swim the 200 fly last year.

Also, do you know when they're going to post psych sheets?

Many different factors. I think it would be logical for Texas to split Hersey and Gingrich up so they don't overlap events. They both have the talent to win three events but it's up to our girls to stop them.

I have Hersey doing 100/200 fly and 200 IM and Gingrich doing 400 IM/500/1650. It's my opinion that Texas put Hersey in the 200 back last year with no Heiss to contend with which gave them a very strong chance to get 20 points in an event they were generally weak in (outside of Riefenstahl who looked bad the first two days). I think they switch Hersey back to the 200 fly this year vs. facing off with Heiss who ranks #1 in the 200 back. With Hersey back in the 200 fly, you move Gingrich out of the 200 fly and into the 1650, where she ranks #1, so they don't have to beat each other out for points. Ditto moving Hersey out of the 400 IM (and leaving Gingrich who currently ranks #1) and into the 100 fly.

With those two (Gingrich and Hersey) not racing each other, you give them both the chance to hang 60 points up each -- which they need because this meet will be super close. Now do I think they will score 60 each? -- ummmm no. But it's not out of the realm of possibility and they will both score well into the 50's regardless.


Psyche sheets won't be posted until the week of the meet I believe. I would check A&M's championships website for them. Honestly I think the psyche sheets are meaningless unless you find out someone is hurt and won't be competing. We won't know who is swimming what or who is A team and who is B until Wednesday/Thursday morning.

[This message has been edited by Look Out Below (edited 2/11/2010 3:36p).]

From a pervious forum, didn't we determine that Jaele does not do platform? My daughter said Texas has very talented platform divers. Does anyone know how many divers will be competing and how many events do each of them do? If 1 spot = 6 events, do the divers take up more than 1 spot and knock a swimmer out?

Diving will likely get 1 spot, I would guess. The top 6 diving spots can outscore the 3 equivalent individual events that the 16th swimmer would score, but beyond that, it becomes a pretty big gamble to run the next 6 best events out there (if that makes sense). Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa State are significantly better at diving than they are at swimming (last year in the 1 meter, 5 of the finalists came from these 3 teams, and the other 3 were from t.u.), so there's more of a risk of being knocked out of the big points. We only have 5 available divers I believe, so that means that to use up a second roster spot, at least 2 girls would have to dive all 3, and considering Jaele, our best diver by far, doesn't do platform, that means 2 of your lesser divers do all 3, or Jaele does platform which she's not great at.

Anywho, my guess is that we just use 1 roster spot on diving.

You both make valid points but there are three things to take into account:

1) A diver can compete and score the same number of points in as many events as a swimmer but only counts half as much against the A team total; you flat out get more bang for your buck if you have a good group of divers (which we do)

2) While you are correct about last year's diving results wolverine, this year the Big 12 is VERY weak in diving, Texas included. Just look at the UH Invite results, our lowest scoring diver was beating KU's #2 diver on both boards -- and keep in mind this meet was before Lerew even got here.

I did some fairly thorough research on this the other night. It seems that each of the four north schools only have 1 diver even in the same zip code as Jaele. The rest of their teams' next best divers might not be as good as our #5 diver. Texas only has two in the same zip code as Jaele and two others that are not near as good; also their #2 diver from a year ago is redshirting while they lost their Livingston their national champion to attrition. Texas only has three total that do tower (and only have two that, in my opinion, are good to decent at it).

3) Our girls have been diving VERY well since Jay Lerew has come on board; if they dive like they did against Houston/North Texas, they will score a large number of points

My educated guess is that A&M will use two spots for diving this year while Texas will use one. A&M has 3-4 girls that can dive tower if needed (and keep in mind that only three schools in the Big 12 even have a tower so scoring in that event is even easier coupled by the fact that the conference is weaker than usual). In this scenario, A&M has five girls to use 12 spots. I definitely think Patrick will do two and Potvin will do three. That leaves Haynes, Lujan, and/or Watson to use the other seven spots -- two will do two events and one will do three. It all depends on what Lerew thinks will work best.

In the current Big 12 environment, all five have the talent and guidance to final on multiple boards in my opinion. The important thing to remember is that you have to have a 3rd, 4th and 5th diver combining to score what a #17 swimmer would by themself. I think the odds of our #3-5 divers as a group outscoring our #17 swimmer are much, much higher this year. This is a much welcome problem to have.

Good point. You're probably right.

I'll rephrase then- In a typical year, we're likely to only use 1. But maybe this year we'll use 2! :-). Agreed, welcome problem to have.

Do we get 18 or 16 spots??

18 spots

Hmm! Where am I thinking 16 from? Is NCAA's 16?

Not sure. I'm pretty sure NCAA's is 18 too.

oops forgot about not wanting to give out that kind of info... I am sorry!! I must be getting old and forgot that not only aggies can read this!

[This message has been edited by swimmingmom (edited 2/13/2010 2:10p).]

either way, i hope we don't give an information out that might help the opponent.

or just spill the beans. whatever is best, mom.

No worries swimmom...we are all excited to see what will happen, who does what, and just how good we'll be! Can't wait!