We could have kept it on the other thread but I figured we'd start an official since we always do.

Draws released on Friday.

I'm a huge Fed guy, but I'd make Djoker the favorite, with Fed and Murray very close as the 2nd favorite.

Side note, is Rafa ever going to be the same?

Looking forward to the tournament starting tomorrow night.

The first night match at Laver is a good one. The home favorite, Lleyton Hewitt, will take on Janko Tipsarevic. On paper, it would seem like Tipsy would take this one easily, but Hewitt gets up for majors, particularly the Aussie Open. I imagine when this draw came out, both players grumbled a little bit.

let's do this thing! Hope it's a great tournament.

Off to a rousing start...Venus late to the court and Sharapova playing shaky early tennis.

The Johnson-Almagro match has been the best of day 1 so far.

Tough loss for Johnson. He played good tennis, but it looked like he just ran out of steam in the fifth set.

Ryan Harrison is in a bit of trouble against Santiago Giraldo on court 8. He's down 4-1 in the third set tied at one set apiece.

I think Rafa is done as a top 5 player due to the fact he simply will not play enough events to accumulate points. The hard court season is just too much for his knees to take. The Spanish must put a ton of emphasis on developing tennis pleyers because they produce a bunch of them.

I read yesterday that Federer was paid $12 million for a two month exhibition circuit through South America. I was in Argentina just before he was to play Del Potro.

[This message has been edited by ce1994 (edited 1/14/2013 2:31p).]

$12 million to tour South America for a couple months....not a bad gig.

Haase vs. Murray
Wozniacki vs. Lisicki
Schiavone vs. Kvitova
Vania King vs. Kirilenko
Oudin vs. Robson

All interesting matches on tonight.

Also Fed and Serena even though they should roll.

Serena's down.

Right leg buckled, getting the ankle re-taped.

[This message has been edited by TXAggie2011 (edited 1/14/2013 8:53p).]

directv is great getting to utilize the open mix and pick which match you want to watch.

I'm with you on Rafa, '94. If he manages his schedule well and limits the tournaments he enters, I think he can still be a dangerous player that wins French Opens. But, for the reasons you stated, I think he is all but done as a perennial top 4 player that is a threat to win all four majors.

Joker will start having physical problems as well. Watching him slide on hard courts makes me cringe. Age catches up with us all.

Continuing the Rafa discussion, my reaction when watching him play the first time was "he is so physical there is no way that he will have a long career." I honestly am amazed that he went this long with only a couple of health problems. Being known for outlasting people in 5 setters doesn't bode well for tennis longevity.

A strange but true comparison to Rafa versus Roger would be RGIII to Peyton Manning. One is a grinder while the other is all about finesse and making it look easy. (obviously ignoring that RGIII is a rook and Peyton is a vet).

My bet on Rafa: One more FO with one other major thrown in.

Luck:

He is not going to beat any of the top players on a hard court after a two week grind. He is also not going to win on grass because of the speed of play. Also, again those majors are two weeks long and when he gets into the last week he would have to play some of the top players. Look at Del Potro. When Rafa was in his prime Del Potro blasted him out of the US Open as if he were playing a child. He destroyed him. But then a chronic injury reared its head and he has since been a dangerous player but not one you would put heavy money on to win a major. This is a chronic injury for Nadal. Lleyton Hewitt walks around like an old man.

The comparison between Nadal and Hewitt is a good one. Obviously Nadal's peak was higher and he was there for a longer period of time, but they are pretty similar.

Both players are grinders and they are both paying for it. I wouldn't be shocked if Nadal ended up having to make a decision that Hewitt has had to make of late between retiring or just "merely existing on tour" to use a phrase coined by Roddick when he retired.

I would like to take full credit for that comparison but I can't. I read an article a few years about it. They were talking about how Hewitt was limping around in a press conference and a guy stated "that will be Nadal in a few years". Nadal is a beast and it has been an enormous pleasure watching him but he is done. I don't think he will win the French this year. I think Joker or Del Porto takes it. Heck, maybe Ferrer can take it this year.

Joker with his draw wins the Aussie
Joker wins the French
Fed wins Wimbledon
Joker wins the US

A three slam year for Joker. I just don't think Andy Murray has the mental make up to do it. The US Open was his nut. He then fell back to earth at the year end finals.

down goes DelPo to Chardy in 5. Good comeback by Del Potro, but he blew it in the 5th.

Seppi is about to upset Cilic possibly.

Anyone gonna stay up for Roger v Tomic?

Not everyone prefers this kind of outcome, but I think it's fun that we are going to have a Chardy/Seppi matchup in the round of 16.

Chardy has a ton of talent, but he runs hot and cold as much as just about anyone else on tour. No one really ever seems to believe in him. Brad Gilbert seemed convinced, even as Chardy was up two sets on Del Potro, that he was going to blow the lead. And he was almost right. DelPo came back and won the third and fourth set before Chardy stormed back to win. Seppi is one of the stories I really like to see. He's 28 years old, he's been on tour forever, but he's only started playing his best tennis in the last two years.

I DVRed the Fed/Tomic match and I'm certainly glad I did that rather than stay up to watch live. Tomic got Fed to a tiebeaker in the second set, but other than that, Fed had his way.

It's still really, really early in his career, but it's hard not to see the parallels between Tomic and Mark Philippoussis. Philippoussis was a nice player that could, in theory, beat just about everyone on tour, but more often than not, he was just a foil for the best players on the big stages. He was ranked as high as eighth in his career, but I'm not sure he was ever truly considered one of the greats of the 1990s. He also ran afoul of Tennis Australia on the regular. He feuded with Davis Cup mates Lleyton Hewitt and Pat Rafter and he was flaky about his availability for Davis Cup play.

Tomic has a pretty diverse game and he's fit enough that he is in just about every match he plays in, but his resume is largely devoid of big wins. When he has come up against the Federers of the world, he is simply outclassed. He came into this tournament with his first tournament win and a win over Djokovic under his belt, but Federer's win over him looked as easy as ever. Then, of course, there are the questions about his effort. He has been given the moniker "Tomic the Tank Engine." He has also had his issues with Tennis Australia. He and DC captain Pat Rafter don't see eye to eye and even some of the other Aussie DC players seem to be a bit annoyed with his behavior.

The announcers made Tomic sound like a real turd. He also was very gassed as a 20 year old. I smell a flame out. Frankly I do not see him as top 10. Too much talent on the men's circuit.

Djoker vs Wawrinka in an epic epic match

Wow. Djoker gets through

Just finished watching. Really wanted Wawrinka to win. I watched the first two sets but fell asleep till 3-3 in the fifth.

Outstanding match!



_______________________________________________________
Bacon: The duct tape of the kitchen.

Which allows me to pile on Tomic again. Here was the 15th seed that took Joker to the absolute limit in the round of 16. He did not lose that match. Joker won it. No way Tomic will evolve into that. IMO he does not make it to top 10.

What an incredible match between Wawrinka and Djokovic. I set the DVR to run two hours long and I still didn't get the entire match. It cut off at 6-all in the fifth set.

When Stan was up a set and 4-1 in the second set, I thought it was all but over. He was just playing out of his mind. But it just goes to show how great Djokovic is.

You have got to hand it to Ferrer. The guy just hustles his tail off out there. Here's to hoping he wins the French Open.

Looking toward tonight. Andy Murray got a pretty good break with some upsets so he should progress through in straight sets. Roger Federer will have a decidedly more dangerous match but I predict he will win in 4 sets. Tsonga is a good player that has had his best results at the Australian. I feel better about the game being at night because of the breeze. That seems to help Fed against some of the harder hitters. I don't mean wind like at the US OPEN where it can blow you off your feet.

I am looking forward to these matches. Truth be told given a choice of being at the Australian Open men's final versus the Supebowl I would pick tennis.

Fed has looked outstanding so far, but I agree it will be a tough match.

Agree in ferrer too. Tough competitor. Hope he can get find glory at the French because it won't happen here

A telling stat about Federer and one that I never really considered until the graphic came up is his conversion of break point chances. As good as he is his ability to convert break point chances is astoundingly bad. That really makes sense considering that even when Nadal is kicking his brains out Fed still won more points. It was just the points he was winning.

Hoping Sloane Stephens can take Serena out. It'd be fun to see a really young American in the semi's and possibly Finals. Still hope Maria takes it all though.

Serena is going to kill her. She does not even look like the same player from a year ago. She has lost a ton of weight. Serena Willimas is going to do some serious damage this year on the women's side.

Not so fast...

If you are a real stat junky, here is a cool blog entry on the stats of the first week of the AO.

http://www.changeovertennis.com/australian-open-week-one-stats-mens/

Sloane playing well. Although Serena is injured so it's hard to gauge exactly. But still, not bad. Hope she takes this 3rd set.