With the recent tumble, what are our chances of making the playoffs this year

2-7 in Big 12 play...I would say not good.

2-7 in Big12. 9-8 overall.
11 matches remain in the second half of the season. We must win half of them.

Here's how I see it:

UPCOMING (expected wins in bold, expected losses in italics)
previous result
-----------------------------
10/18 @ Iowa State
(first meeting this year). IMO they haven’t maintained their 2005 level, when they won both matches. The trip up there will be tough, but a win is possible. Edit: Okay, somehow I missed this one. We actually won both matches last year.

10/21 Kansas
2-3 EXTREMELY close loss at Kansas, only 4 points of differential. First match with Courtnee setting full time. A month of experience and on our court I think we should expect a win.

10/25 Colorado
0-3 Loss at Colorado. They are one of the surprises of the Big12 this year, but I think if we can avoid getting aced 11 times on our home court, it’s a tossup.

10/28 @ Oklahoma
0-3 Loss to this season’s other Big12 surprise. They blocked us off the court in Rollie, which usually means bad passing. This may be a hard match to win.

11/01 Baylor
3-1 Win at Wacko. Either our defense was great or their offense was terrible. We outdug them 80-53. Their block is slow - Christi Hahn is fast. We should win this at home.

11/04 @ Kansas State
3-2 Win at home. We cleared the bench for this one. Courtnee was finding herself. Our defense and middle attack was good, but the Outsides had very low percentages, which again indicates passing breakdown. Please, girls, just serve the ball IN. I know KSU has a good following, but with our lineup finally settling down, we can win this match.

11/08 @ Texas
1-3 Loss at home. Honestly, we are physically overmatched, and our freshman don’t yet have enough experience to know how to out-finesse a team that is bigger and faster and stronger. I would be surprised if we managed to push them to 5 games, much less win.

11/12 Iowa State
(2nd meeting this year). At home, with four weeks to study the tape, we will need to win this to prove ourselves to the powers that be, especially if we lose the first match.

11/15 @ Nebraska
0-3 Loss at home, but closer than I thought it would be. The Husker crowd does great things for them. Let’s at least try to take a game off them.

11/18 @ Texas Tech
2-3 Loss at home bu another razor thin margin. This is definitely the WTF match of the year. We were tied or better than them in several stats, but our errors all came at the worst times. No momentum ever built. As far as I’m concerned, if we don’t win the rematch we don’t belong in the postseason.

11/22 Missouri
2-3 Loss at Missouri. As a fan, this one really hurts. We outdug them, outhit them, outblocked them. Then we turned around and gave them the match by serving the ball into the net and shanking the service receptions into the stands. If we’d beat them at home we’d have enough luster for a comfortable at-large bid. I think the rematch is almost a must-win. It is the last match of our season and will follow closely after losses to Nebraska and Texas, meaning it will either cement or soften the committee's judgment of us. If we lose at home, it will be hard for them to put us in the bracket, especially any 1-3 loss or sweep which would end the Corbellis’ NCAA streak. Missouri has proven vulnerable, but their coaches always do a great scouting job. We will have to bring the A game.


So that's 4 expected wins, 3 expected losses, and four I'm not sure of. If those seven go as expected, then we just need to split the remainder to be considered. It will be an uphill battle, and the silly mistakes HAVE TO STOP.


[This message has been edited by wannaggie (edited 10/18/2006 9:14p).]

Zero

Barring a miracle, NumberEin is correct. Every year the top ~50 teams separate themselves into different tiers of performance, with the breaks between tiers coming in different places each year.

This is the least stable year in recent history.
In the last five years there have been one or two extremely strong teams at the top, then another group between 2-7, a huge dogfight between 8-18, and an all out melee between 19-50. This year, on the other hand, it almost looks like there are only two groups: the top 5 teams, and then the other 45 who haven't definitively sorted themselves into order.

So what does that mean for Aggie Volleyball?

It means the NCAA committee will have a VERY LONG list of teams on the bubble, and with a bad conference rank we will be VERY LOW on that list. There will be 50 other teams with just as much of a claim to an at-large bid. Without status of a regional host to push us over the top - and face it Ags, last year we were a questionable entry - there is no way the committee will take 8 Big12 teams out of deference to Corbelli's streak, even if we manage to squeak out a .500 finish. We have multiple bad losses and the only decent win came in preseason against a Minnesota team that had some of its best players on NCAA suspension at the time.

I'm sorry to say it, but the postseason appearance streak ends this year.