First Street Foundation new climate study

2,548 Views | 23 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by spicyitalian
Clob94
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Spoiler alert:

We are not going to be dead in 12 years like AOC said.


https://firststreet.org/press/press-release-2022-heat-model-launch/

Quote:

The model highlights the local impacts of climate change by identifying the seven hottest days expected for any property this year, and using that metric to calculate how many of those days would be experienced in 30 years. The most severe shift in local temperatures is found in Miami-Dade County where the 7 hottest days, currently at 103F, will increase to 34 days at that same temperature by 2053.
Short read but completely full of bull snot.

These people just make this crap up.
CDUB98
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Is this the same one that said TX up towards MI would experience at least one 125 degree day per year by 2053?
aggie93
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Love how they think they can predict the exact temperature in Miami 30 years from now.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
StrikeWater00
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nm

mc_shipman
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Their models can't even predict the temperature last year with all the information known.
Funky Winkerbean
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Not one climate model in the history of climate models has ever been accurate.

But this one is (wink,wink,nudge,nudge)
BluHorseShu
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CDUB98 said:

Is this the same one that said TX up towards MI would experience at least one 125 degree day per year by 2053?
I don't know where you are in Texas…but things are worse this summer than any summer since I've lived here in the 70's. But maybe I'm just getting older and complain more about the heat. The climate is changing. Anyone who doesn't believe that has their head in the sand. This is vastly different than arguing the cause of the change. Ultimately people who deny it won't believe the climate is changing until it consistently affects them directly. The climate has always gone through periods of change (not caused by people). The last ice age was only an 8 degree avg temp difference than our current average.
Ag with kids
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Funky Winkerbean said:

Not one climate model in the history of climate models has ever been accurate.

But this one is (wink,wink,nudge,nudge)
I did flight simulation for 20+ years.

To be able to achieve Level D certification, you had to "tune" your model using very specific flight test data. There was no way to get the basic physics model or even a table based model to get close enough to reality.

And this is for extremely well known physics with TONS of VERY SPECIFIC test data - ACTUAL real time data.

So, pardon my skepticism when I'm told that a model that doesn't really cover the VAST amount of the variables in detail is going to be that correct...
fightingfarmer09
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BluHorseShu said:

CDUB98 said:

Is this the same one that said TX up towards MI would experience at least one 125 degree day per year by 2053?
I don't know where you are in Texas…but things are worse this summer than any summer since I've lived here in the 70's. But maybe I'm just getting older and complain more about the heat. The climate is changing. Anyone who doesn't believe that has their head in the sand. This is vastly different than arguing the cause of the change. Ultimately people who deny it won't believe the climate is changing until it consistently affects them directly. The climate has always gone through periods of change (not caused by people). The last ice age was only an 8 degree avg temp difference than our current average.


2011 says hello.

1950s as well.

Current drought as of Aug 2:


Aug 9 2011:
LOYAL AG
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BluHorseShu said:

CDUB98 said:

Is this the same one that said TX up towards MI would experience at least one 125 degree day per year by 2053?
I don't know where you are in Texas…but things are worse this summer than any summer since I've lived here in the 70's. But maybe I'm just getting older and complain more about the heat. The climate is changing. Anyone who doesn't believe that has their head in the sand. This is vastly different than arguing the cause of the change. Ultimately people who deny it won't believe the climate is changing until it consistently affects them directly. The climate has always gone through periods of change (not caused by people). The last ice age was only an 8 degree avg temp difference than our current average.
Its you. This isn't any worse than 2011 or whatever summer we had 60+ days over 100. It's dry and hot which isn't unusual in Texas. Now what is worse is that the utilities haven't kept up with population growth in their ability to supply water and power and as a result all of our lawns are dead.
Ag with kids
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BluHorseShu said:

CDUB98 said:

Is this the same one that said TX up towards MI would experience at least one 125 degree day per year by 2053?
I don't know where you are in Texas…but things are worse this summer than any summer since I've lived here in the 70's. But maybe I'm just getting older and complain more about the heat. The climate is changing. Anyone who doesn't believe that has their head in the sand. This is vastly different than arguing the cause of the change. Ultimately people who deny it won't believe the climate is changing until it consistently affects them directly. The climate has always gone through periods of change (not caused by people). The last ice age was only an 8 degree avg temp difference than our current average.
a) The years 1980 and 2011 would like to call bull****
b) What "last ice age"? We're still in the current ice age...We're just in an interglacial period. And based on the Vostok Ice Core data, we're getting very damn close to the end of it if historical precedents continue. So...we may just drop those 8 degrees within the next 1000 years (although the data implies it may be less).
jeremy
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fightingfarmer09 said:

BluHorseShu said:

CDUB98 said:

Is this the same one that said TX up towards MI would experience at least one 125 degree day per year by 2053?
I don't know where you are in Texas…but things are worse this summer than any summer since I've lived here in the 70's. But maybe I'm just getting older and complain more about the heat. The climate is changing. Anyone who doesn't believe that has their head in the sand. This is vastly different than arguing the cause of the change. Ultimately people who deny it won't believe the climate is changing until it consistently affects them directly. The climate has always gone through periods of change (not caused by people). The last ice age was only an 8 degree avg temp difference than our current average.


2011 says hello.

1950s as well.

Current drought as of Aug 2:


Aug 9 2011:




Exactly. It's hotter because we are told every day it's hotter and we're softer. It was hotter when I was a kid and I went to the pool, rode my bike, worked on my bmx track, etc. I didn't care. The difference is what you are used to and what is being screamed at you 24/7.
Ag with kids
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LOYAL AG said:

BluHorseShu said:

CDUB98 said:

Is this the same one that said TX up towards MI would experience at least one 125 degree day per year by 2053?
I don't know where you are in Texas…but things are worse this summer than any summer since I've lived here in the 70's. But maybe I'm just getting older and complain more about the heat. The climate is changing. Anyone who doesn't believe that has their head in the sand. This is vastly different than arguing the cause of the change. Ultimately people who deny it won't believe the climate is changing until it consistently affects them directly. The climate has always gone through periods of change (not caused by people). The last ice age was only an 8 degree avg temp difference than our current average.
Its you. This isn't any worse than 2011 or whatever summer we had 60+ days over 100. It's dry and hot which isn't unusual in Texas. Now what is worse is that the utilities haven't kept up with population growth in their ability to supply water and power and as a result all of our lawns are dead.
THIS is this issue.

We haven't been building up our energy infrastructure to match all the population growth and relocation.

But, we have allowed precious resources to be diverted to "renewable energy" that doesn't provide the reliability or baseload power needed. But, Uncle Sugar...umm...Sam...gave away some free samples to get everyone hooked on the "renewables".

We need a bunch of new power plants around Houston, San Antonio/Austin, DFW and several more in the growing east Texas and South Texas regions. **** El Paso because they're basically New Mexico (but, DAMN!!! They make good food). I don't care if those plants are natural gas or nuclear but NG would be quicker to bring on line. (NOTE: I would prefer molten salt nuclear reactors, but...)
Ag with kids
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jeremy said:

fightingfarmer09 said:

BluHorseShu said:

CDUB98 said:

Is this the same one that said TX up towards MI would experience at least one 125 degree day per year by 2053?
I don't know where you are in Texas…but things are worse this summer than any summer since I've lived here in the 70's. But maybe I'm just getting older and complain more about the heat. The climate is changing. Anyone who doesn't believe that has their head in the sand. This is vastly different than arguing the cause of the change. Ultimately people who deny it won't believe the climate is changing until it consistently affects them directly. The climate has always gone through periods of change (not caused by people). The last ice age was only an 8 degree avg temp difference than our current average.


2011 says hello.

1950s as well.

Current drought as of Aug 2:


Aug 9 2011:




Exactly. It's hotter because we are told every day it's hotter and we're softer. It was hotter when I was a kid and I went to the pool, rode my bike, worked on my bmx track, etc. I didn't care. The difference is what you are used to and what is being screamed at you 24/7.
I lived overseas until I was 10. Japan, Germany, then England. Then, I moved to Texas in 1978...in August.

Two years later was 1980. It wasn't **** to a 12 year old kid who had grown up with the 70s and 80s being a heat wave. (I actually heard a weatherman in England say we were going to have the "Sizzling 70s")

(Disclosure: We did come back to the US a few times when I was growing up so I had gone through Texas heat before)
CDUB98
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BluHorseShu said:

CDUB98 said:

Is this the same one that said TX up towards MI would experience at least one 125 degree day per year by 2053?
I don't know where you are in Texas…but things are worse this summer than any summer since I've lived here in the 70's. But maybe I'm just getting older and complain more about the heat. The climate is changing. Anyone who doesn't believe that has their head in the sand. This is vastly different than arguing the cause of the change. Ultimately people who deny it won't believe the climate is changing until it consistently affects them directly. The climate has always gone through periods of change (not caused by people). The last ice age was only an 8 degree avg temp difference than our current average.


Odd flex.

I live in Houston. It's been a crappy summer.

Of course the climate changes, but predicting 22 temperature rise within a specific strip of the US within 30 years doesn't pass the logic test. Nor does the fact that 125 temperatures happen only in a few certain parts of the earth, and even there, rarely.

But, hey, hope your rant helped you feel better.
The Fife
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I remember 1998 was pretty rough, but it was more front loaded and hot in June-1st half of July instead of what people seem to be talking about now.
Funky Winkerbean
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Now let's talk about the cold weather..
richardag
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LOYAL AG said:

BluHorseShu said:

CDUB98 said:

Is this the same one that said TX up towards MI would experience at least one 125 degree day per year by 2053?
I don't know where you are in Texas…but things are worse this summer than any summer since I've lived here in the 70's. But maybe I'm just getting older and complain more about the heat. The climate is changing. Anyone who doesn't believe that has their head in the sand. This is vastly different than arguing the cause of the change. Ultimately people who deny it won't believe the climate is changing until it consistently affects them directly. The climate has always gone through periods of change (not caused by people). The last ice age was only an 8 degree avg temp difference than our current average.
Its you. This isn't any worse than 2011 or whatever summer we had 60+ days over 100. It's dry and hot which isn't unusual in Texas. Now what is worse is that the utilities haven't kept up with population growth in their ability to supply water and power and as a result all of our lawns are dead.
1980?
Remembering the 1980 Dallas Heatwave
  • It was 30 years ago this week that a 42-day string of 100 degree days the longest heat wave by far in the region's history was broken. For one day. More triple digits followed, and when autumn mercifully arrived, temperatures had hit the century mark 69 times.
Just to make my life miserable the air conditioning at work was broken down for 3 weeks during that 42 day stretch, if memory serves.
TAMU1990
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BluHorseShu said:

CDUB98 said:

Is this the same one that said TX up towards MI would experience at least one 125 degree day per year by 2053?
I don't know where you are in Texas…but things are worse this summer than any summer since I've lived here in the 70's. But maybe I'm just getting older and complain more about the heat. The climate is changing. Anyone who doesn't believe that has their head in the sand. This is vastly different than arguing the cause of the change. Ultimately people who deny it won't believe the climate is changing until it consistently affects them directly. The climate has always gone through periods of change (not caused by people). The last ice age was only an 8 degree avg temp difference than our current average.
Compare the 2022 drought to other major droughts in Texas - 2011 and 1980. This one is not any different. In fact, 2022 isn't the droughts to end all droughts. It looks like Texas has a drought once a decade.
Definitely Not A Cop
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Wasn't last summer one of the coldest summers in Texas history?
nortex97
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Arctic sea ice is very worrying. Not.



12 year mid-August high. Quick, everyone, go buy an electric car today.
LOYAL AG
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Definitely Not A Cop said:

Wasn't last summer one of the coldest summers in Texas history?


I'd say yes but I don't have a lengthy perspective on this one. I will say last summer was the first time I rode Hotter N Hell which, if you don't know, is a 100 mile bike ride in Wichita Falls at the end of August. It's hot and windy and everyone still talks about 2011 when the forecast high was 114. Last year was my first and my wife likes to tease me that it was only moderately warm and definitely not Hotter N Hell. It was only 94 that day. I spent about six weeks ramping up for it and the whole stretch was just like that, highs in the mid-90's. Our heat wave last year came in October.
CDUB98
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LOYAL AG said:

Definitely Not A Cop said:

Wasn't last summer one of the coldest summers in Texas history?


I'd say yes but I don't have a lengthy perspective on this one. I will say last summer was the first time I rode Hotter N Hell which, if you don't know, is a 100 mile bike ride in Wichita Falls at the end of August. It's hot and windy and everyone still talks about 2011 when the forecast high was 114. Last year was my first and my wife likes to tease me that it was only moderately warm and definitely not Hotter N Hell. It was only 94 that day. I spent about six weeks ramping up for it and the whole stretch was just like that, highs in the mid-90's. Our heat wave last year came in October.


LOL

I've ridden that ride many times, including last year and 2011. Last year was definitely a little cooler in comparison. 2011 was an absolute beast. My cycling computer showed a temperature of 124 at one point due to all the heat coming back from the road and the direct sunlight.
spicyitalian
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https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/

Out of curiosity I have been going back through what I remembered to be the worst years in my head. Turns out we don't always remember things as well as we think. Check out your own area and past years trends and you'll find out that while this year is bad, it definitely isn't the worst.
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