Seems like every ISD in Tarrant County has "shrinking enrollment".

Not too many years ago, we were opening a new elementary school every year but now the school age population is shrinking? At the same time the population of Tarrant County is growing faster than almost any other county in the US?

https://www.wfaa.com/article/money/tarrant-county-dallas-county-population-increase-metric/287-abc9e0e6-89c7-4585-9aec-c51486926a0f

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The county centered on Fort Worth continues to see some of the most explosive growth in the nation, according to recent numbers released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Tarrant County, which includes cities such as Fort Worth and Arlington, added an estimated 32,793 people from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024 about 89 people per day, including both natural increase and migration. That's more than the prior year, which saw the addition of about 82 people a day.

On a percentage basis, Tarrant County's population grew 1.5%, well above the national average of 0.4%. It was also significantly higher than the 0.8% growth in Dallas County.

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But ISDs are now opening enrollment and inviting kids to come on in.

So is it charter schools and home schooling that is siphoning off all the kids who must be moving here and more (since public school populations are shrinking)?

And studies have shown that 2nd and 3rd gen Hispanics born to illegals also have fewer babies. The assertion that Hispanics are breeding here in America is false. The more educated and wealthy a population becomes, the fewer children it has. Doesn't matter the ethnicity or race.

rocky the dog said:

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"shrinking enrollment"

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Kids are smaller than they used to be.

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I'm waiting for 'horn' to start posting memes.

"Dogs and cats, living together...mass hysteria" on F16.

:-)

Anybody aware of any data on the trend of increased home-school plus private school vs. the decline in public school attendance?

Even beyond population changes, I would think more people are pulling their kids out of public schools because of the **** show they've become. Those who can pay for private school do, and those who can't opt for home-schooling or some collective community remote schooling.

This is a well known phenomenon at least with college enrollment over the next few years. During and after the financial crisis of 2008-2009, people stopped having nearly as many kids. College applications nationwide are peaking I believe this year or next, and then will be dropping off significantly over the next 5 years. Right now is the hardest it has ever been to get into college. I do t think the birth rate recovered either, so I'd expect that elementary and middle schools are starting to feel the pinch as their student populations don't replenish.

DallasAg 94 said:

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Exactly. Frisco had a population of 40k in 2000. It is now 250k.

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And they're also already starting to close schools due to enrollment issues. Probably over-developed in response to the big pop boom but a sign that even the "popular" suburbs are having that issue too.

The only logical explanation is that the parent's with means are putting their kids into private schools or are home schooling.

A couple of months ago it was announced that the state was having to come in and take over FW ISD because it was a complete CF which tells me their leftists ruined it enough that parents have been taking their kids out for some time.

My school district near DFW airport had a huge fight about shutting down an elementary school because of falling enrollment. The school designated, rioted and overturned the decision and now they are slashing tons of other stuff.

Our issue is housing cost. We are affluent and all the older folks are not leaving town as they age.

Thus there is not enough housing stock, and since the inflation craze and high interest rates it's difficult for young families to move into our city. A side note is that 25% of our housing stock is leased which is just crazy.

rocky the dog said:

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"shrinking enrollment"

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Kids are smaller than they used to be.

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Lol!

Definitely POTD right here.

Stressboy said:

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My school district near DFW airport had a huge fight about shutting down an elementary school because of falling enrollment. The school designated, rioted and overturned the decision and now they are slashing tons of other stuff.

Our issue is housing cost. We are affluent and all the older folks are not leaving town as they age.

Thus there is not enough housing stock, and since the inflation craze and high interest rates it's difficult for young families to move into our city. A side note is that 25% of our housing stock is leased which is just crazy.

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So irresponsible. We are going to force you to pay property taxes to fund us even though we aren't needed.

Even Dallas ISD shut down several schools about a decade ago because there simply weren't enough students to operate the schools.

The lower birth rate many identified is probably the biggest factor. However, one thing that has been interesting to see is the "popular" areas which saw strong spikes in housing prices. It makes it significantly harder for families with young kids to afford to move into these areas and a shrinking enrollment follows. Add to lots of people in many of the older, but still desirable areas not moving since they are locked into their mortgages so units are not turning to families with kids. Eans (Westlake) is experiencing this and closing schools while also being open that they are accepting transfers.

Stressboy said:

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My school district near DFW airport had a huge fight about shutting down an elementary school because of falling enrollment. The school designated, rioted and overturned the decision and now they are slashing tons of other stuff.

Our issue is housing cost. We are affluent and all the older folks are not leaving town as they age.

Thus there is not enough housing stock, and since the inflation craze and high interest rates it's difficult for young families to move into our city. A side note is that 25% of our housing stock is leased which is just crazy.

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We closed Pinkerton Elementary in Coppell, more to follow

Eventually interest rates will come down and people will sell, and kids will move in

It's a real problem in many rural districts too.

1) less overall kids
2) even fewer US kids, enrollment crisis would be even larger without the illegal population.
3) more options for the limited kids, so they go to charter school etc.

If nothing by changes I could see where many districts are educating illegals almost exclusively.

1/3 of the kids in our elementary school are in ESL exclusive classes. Yet our Spanish classes in high school are online because we can't find a teacher.

Definitely lack of kids and parents can't move out of their paid home since it's too expensive.

Also, kids don't want their parents to live with them and vice versa.

TheMasterplan said:

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Definitely lack of kids and parents can't move out of their paid home since it's too expensive.

Also, kids don't want their parents to live with them and vice versa.

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I didn't realize there was a movement of minors wanting to live on their own without their parents.

I go through a school zone on my way to the office, almost no kids in the crosswalk, go a block and the church charter school crosswalk is packed

Property taxes need to start decreasing to reflect declining school enrollments. Will they? F* no.

Men are having fewer kids.

YouBet said:

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Property taxes need to start decreasing to reflect declining school enrollments. Will they? F* no.

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They're talking about moving the property tax deduction to 55 instead of thr current 65

jamey said:

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YouBet said:

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Property taxes need to start decreasing to reflect declining school enrollments. Will they? F* no.

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They're talking about moving the property tax deduction to 55 instead of thr current 65

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Do you mean the homestead cap?

YouBet said:

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jamey said:

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YouBet said:

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Property taxes need to start decreasing to reflect declining school enrollments. Will they? F* no.

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They're talking about moving the property tax deduction to 55 instead of thr current 65

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Do you mean the homestead cap?

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I think so. It effectively for the most part freezes property taxes.

jamey said:

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YouBet said:

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jamey said:

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YouBet said:

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Property taxes need to start decreasing to reflect declining school enrollments. Will they? F* no.

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They're talking about moving the property tax deduction to 55 instead of thr current 65

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Do you mean the homestead cap?

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I think so. It effectively for the most part freezes property taxes.

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Yes, the homestead cap then. That would be nice for me since I'm 52 and close to that.

Homestead cap is different than the over 65 exemption.

akaggie05 said:

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Homestead cap is different than the over 65 exemption.

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Right, talking about the exemption increase for 65+.

Homeschool
Academy's centered on Sport and / or Faith
Charter Schools
Private Schools

Public schools are basically go watch a YouTube video to learn plus woke. So many are opting out.

YouBet said:

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Property taxes need to start decreasing to reflect declining school enrollments. Will they? F* no.

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Gotta still build and maintain those Taj Mahal football stadiums.

backintexas2013 said:

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Can't speak for tarrant county but Austin ISD is shrinking because people are moving out of Austin. They are having to combine schools because of it. Families are moving out and younger people are moving in. Then when they have kids they move out to better schools.

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My wife grew up in east Austin minutes from downtown. My MIL still lives in their original house built in the 80s. East Austin used to be full of families, but now those families have left. Now you see is mostly young couples with their dogs. They've been closing down schools in east Austin for a while now.

In 1970, around 2% of kids who attended Catholic school came from non-Catholic families. It's now around 22%.

People are desperate for their kids to be anywhere other than a public school.

https://www.fox7austin.com/news/seniors-texas-property-tax-breaks

Texas 'Operation Double Nickel'
What's new:
Through Operation Double Nickel, Texas would extend the senior status to about 3.3 million more residents, Patrick says.

The property tax savings would include the freezing of school-related property tax valuations, which locks the amount of property tax designated for schools to the year a resident qualifies for the exemption. That would mean the year a Texas homeowner turns 55, that section of property tax would stop increasing.

Texas seniors are partially exempt from school property tax as well. This amount was recently increased from $10,000 to $60,000.

Qualifying Texans are expected to save about $900 to $1,000 per year if the proposal is passed; up to $10,000 in savings between the new qualifying age of 55 and the previous bar of 65.