Curious what you guys think about this.

I'm not buying our publicized approach that we are willing to work with the current vice president of Venezuela or anyone else that was part of Maduro's regime.

Surely that's a placeholder type of policy.

Trump has proven to be a pretty good tactician. I can't believe we would honestly consider allowing ANYONE that was a part of that government to continue in a position of influence. Especially a woman who was hand picked by Maduro to be his VP.

Thoughts?

Def not this current Maduro VP. Also, the opposition leader Machado isnt someone Trump has promoted.

Maybe there is a way to have a lame duck interim leader while the US oversees a free election.

Quote:

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Surely that's a placeholder type of policy.

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It is. There will be elections hopefully without the fraud as soon as they can be arranged.

Yea hope this does not crash down on us. I saw that after the vice president of Venezuela was sworn in they sent out troops and police to find the collaborators who helped the US

The Fall Guy said:

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Yea hope this does not crash down on us. I saw that after the vice president of Venezuela was sworn in they sent out troops and police to find the collaborators who helped the US

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Yep, saw that.

I just think the best policy when you're dealing with cancer is to remove all of it at once. You never leave some of it around hoping it will just die off.

The only thing I can think of is that doing it this way reduces the appearance of "regime change" , as opposed to a criminal extradition.

They're basically using it as an excuse to crack down on anyone who supported the US or the forced extradition of Maduro. To think that the remnants of the regime that propped up Maduro would ever hold fair and free elections in which they could lose is farcical. I think what is more likely is that the Trump admin would recognize any outcome as fair and legitimate as long as the victor played ball.

Rodriguez has the support of the military and government apparatchiks that Maduro and Chavez kept well taken care of. None of them really want a change in the status quo. I don't think she'd have any trouble rigging an election through intimidation, ballot stuffing, or other means at this point. Machado may have popular support amongst Venezuelans, but she would have a much harder time reigning in the bureaucracy and military and maintaining order. If you're looking for a puppet or at least someone subservient, Rodriguez is probably more capable of delivering and a safer bet.

Concerning to say the least

The reason they have to go with delcy right now is because none of the opposition is still in the country. That and the military is loyal to the Bolivarians (aka, communists)

It's a terrible choice, but really the only viable one we have

Hoping we've got a thumb on this

We'll see

The Fall Guy said:

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Yea hope this does not crash down on us. I saw that after the vice president of Venezuela was sworn in they sent out troops and police to find the collaborators who helped the US

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Let it "slip" that it was some of the other bad guys. Let them kill each other.

That results in civil war. No one wants that.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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They're basically using it as an excuse to crack down on anyone who supported the US or the forced extradition of Maduro. To think that the remnants of the regime that propped up Maduro would ever hold fair and free elections in which they could lose is farcical. I think what is more likely is that the Trump admin would recognize any outcome as fair and legitimate as long as the victor played ball.

Rodriguez has the support of the military and government apparatchiks that Maduro and Chavez kept well taken care of. None of them really want a change in the status quo. I don't think she'd have any trouble rigging an election through intimidation, ballot stuffing, or other means at this point. Machado may have popular support amongst Venezuelans, but she would have a much harder time reigning in the bureaucracy and military and maintaining order. If you're looking for a puppet or at least someone subservient, Rodriguez is probably more capable of delivering and a safer bet.

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The FT is reporting Delcy and her brother have been in negotiations with the US for months on putting Maduro to pasture. Are they going to arrest themselves? The move here is clearly to get the 3 capos pointing fingers at each other while we hold leverage

"Rodrguez, a canny political operator, was envisaged as head of a transitional government in secret talks that her politician brother, Jorge, led with Washington last year about a post-Maduro future, said two people familiar with the discussions. At that time, the negotiations had involved Maduro going safely into exile"

VP lady is going to be transitioning pres until elections are held soon- she has been told you will do this our way or you can come join your buddy and his wife. She will be given the task of dismantling the forces that protected Maduro1 seems like a lot of Cuban enforcers many of which we may have killed in the bombings. This lady is only a puppet or she will be ground into hamburger helper

Exactly.

and we need not to publicly endorse anyone, let this VP have her 90-180 days or whatever to get things moving

Let the Vz have their elections and elect their own leader

ABATTBQ11 said:

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They're basically using it as an excuse to crack down on anyone who supported the US or the forced extradition of Maduro. To think that the remnants of the regime that propped up Maduro would ever hold fair and free elections in which they could lose is farcical. I think what is more likely is that the Trump admin would recognize any outcome as fair and legitimate as long as the victor played ball.

Rodriguez has the support of the military and government apparatchiks that Maduro and Chavez kept well taken care of. None of them really want a change in the status quo. I don't think she'd have any trouble rigging an election through intimidation, ballot stuffing, or other means at this point. Machado may have popular support amongst Venezuelans, but she would have a much harder time reigning in the bureaucracy and military and maintaining order. If you're looking for a puppet or at least someone subservient, Rodriguez is probably more capable of delivering and a safer bet.

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This the problem with instituting a Deep State in your country. Take note.

pacecar02 said:

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and we need not to publicly endorse anyone, let this VP have her 90-180 days or whatever to get things moving

Let the Vz have their elections and elect their own leader

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As long as they are not allowed to cheat. I like the purple finger idea such as in Afghanistan.

Ahh, yes.

The old purple finger

They tracked him using his own China phone. He did it to himself. Now they're 're trying to blame others for him getting caught?

In all seriousness, there is a 0% chance that we don't oversee that election and participate in the counting and verifying of votes.

We aren't just going to trust them to do it right this time.

fullback44 said:

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VP lady is going to be transitioning pres until elections are held soon- she has been told you will do this our way or you can come join your buddy and his wife. She will be given the task of dismantling the forces that protected Maduro1 seems like a lot of Cuban enforcers many of which we may have killed in the bombings. This lady is only a puppet or she will be ground into hamburger helper

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She's going to be in for a world of hurt. We are going to leak repeatedly that she sold out Maduro. The Cubans are going to want her dead if she cooperates with cutting off oil flows to Cuba. The Interior Minister and the their SecDef probably want her dead too. Her only defense is that we and the other non-Chavista portions of VZ society want her to stay alive and manage the transition instead of letting the country collapse.

One way to NOT get in Trump's good graces would be to hunt down whoever helped Trump get her dictator. This does not square with wanting to get along with Washington, during any "transition". Guess we'll wait and see how it all works out for her. If I were her I'd disappear somewhere.

Find the snitch

4 said:

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In all seriousness, there is a 0% chance that we don't oversee that election and participate in the counting and verifying of votes.

We aren't just going to trust them to do it right this time.

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I don't see that happening. That would require a large physical presence in the country, which we don't want to do, and in the event Rodriguez loses she would simply claim we put our finger on the scale and use her loyalty from the military and existing government to stay in power. Could we remove her like Maduro? Maybe, but then we're back to a situation with a Chavista bureaucracy and military running everything and the next communist up. The only way to transition that by force is with a lot of boots on the ground and a large scale engagement. I don't think it'll be Iraq 3.0, but it would certainly cost lives and money.

In the event she wins, we would be painting ourselves into a political corner by having Venezuela "legitimately" elect a socialist/communist dictator in an election we sanctioned and oversaw.

not sure she makes it to the end of the month

I don't really trust anything that Zeihan says, but he always an interesting listen.

Don't forget we told her we were going to continue the oil embargo until she did what we wanted. Granted, I guess whoever is actually in charge of their oil tankers are going to make a mass run for the ocean, or already are attempting to.