I think the answer is
Juan Guaido.
Everybody acts like Machado and her Vente Venezuela party is the only opposition group in Venezuela.
There are several parties in Venezuela that have been battling Maduro for years, and she & her party are one of the weaker ones. Many other opposition parties and leaders have been exiled, imprisoned, or killed; and several would be more popular and potentially stronger than Machado if reinstated as the leaders.
I'd keep an eye on
Juan Guaido. He was hand-selected by the Venezuelan National Assembly (kind of like their Congress) to be President back in 2019 and was considerably more popular than Machado according to most of those in the know. One of the main reasons Machado's candidate was elected in 2024 is that Guaido (back in 2021) led the charge in uniting most of the opposition parties by creating the
Unitary Platform.
And for the record, Machado did not technically run for President against Maduro. She was elected by the Unitary Platform to represent them (kind of like a primary) but had to drop out before the election because Maduro invented a law many years before against "anti-government protests" which is punishable by being banned from holding public office for 15 yrs. It's how Maduro was "legally" able to reject Guaido's presidency and prevent Machado from running in 2024. She stepped back into a party leadership role so an "eligible" candidate could run instead (Edmundo Gonzalez).
One by one, Maduro has been ridding the country of opposition leaders and running off millions of their followers, and he started with the most influential. Machado had a lot of enthusiasm in her circle, but her political & popular support nationally was not as enthusiastic. Machado was selected by the Unitary Platform because she was the best of what was left. Most of the folks voting for her and Edmundo Gonzalez were associating them with Guaido, or were simply voting against Maduro.
The Venezuelans that are being overlooked most are the 8 million or so that have fled the country since Maduro's takeover and will be looking to return. Who would they support most? For most of the folks who seem to know what they're talking about, Juan Guaido is the one Venezuelans rally behind.
Another thing to consider is that Guaido has been protected here in America since he was exiled in 2023. The Trump administration (and the CIA) was a huge supporter of his back in the day, and that support has been very bipartisan through the Biden Administration and Trump 2.0 ever since.
Machado, on the other hand, was extracted from Venezuela by an American extraction team, but she was never brought to the US. Maybe that was our decision, maybe it was hers, so take that for what it's worth.
Oddly enough, Machado and her party are further to the right than Guaido and his party which is more centrist. But the question isn't really which ideology is the most comparable to MAGA, it's which group will have the most support and is more easily controlled by the US.
The people love Guaido. The legislature loves him. The political leaders of just about every group that wasn't part of the Maduro regime loves him. Trump and the US apparently love him. So again, my money is on Juan Guaido.