Look for lower nominal GDP numbers as a result.

US Trade Deficit blows out to $70.3BN, Exp. $55.5BN, last $53.0bn

So much for that

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 19, 2026

So much for US consumers buying more products driving imports and reduction in exports of certain items like nonmonetary gold.

But let's not let context get in the way of economic scare figures.

Look for GDP to be higher than projected, a trend that will grow as the year goes on.

I imagine that is your reaction when trying to read the WSJ or any financial publication.

Exports down 1.7% and imports up 3.1%. Everything you wrote was false.

TRM said:

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Exports down 1.7% and imports up 3.1%. Everything you wrote was false.

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Exports of nonmonetary gold down.

Imports higher due to consumers buying more.

Neither of those predict low GDP. Sometimes increasing trade deficits can forebear lowering GDP. It would certainly be a caution sign given all the other economic indicators. But here it appears to be a red herring.

Will be interesting to see if the imports relate more to productive investment (GDP to be realized later) or just consumption leakage.

What constitute nonmonetary gold? Not sure I understand that category of goods.

akm91 said:

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What constitute nonmonetary gold? Not sure I understand that category of goods.

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Privately held gold (commercial, private) vs sovereign gold. Nonmonetary = not a countries gold

Sims said:

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Will be interesting to see if the imports relate more to productive investment (GDP to be realized later) or just consumption leakage.

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Probably a bit of both. Increase in imports were juiced by computer, telecom and oil.

Broader point is the deficit increasing is not an absolute indicator or something bad or lowering GDP. It's possible, but it would not be consistent with the broader fact pattern of an economy on the precipice of a boom.

Oh Yes! Let's all wet our pants over one month's data, shall we? For those of you that want to see the actual data, short term, and long term trends (instead of getting all of your insight from tweets), it's here.


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOPGSTB

TRM said:

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Look for lower nominal GDP numbers as a result.

US Trade Deficit blows out to $70.3BN, Exp. $55.5BN, last $53.0bn

So much for that

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 19, 2026

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You called it. 4th Qtr GDP at 1.4%

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/20/pce-inflation-december-2025.html

flown-the-coop said:

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So much for US consumers buying more products driving imports and reduction in exports of certain items like nonmonetary gold.

But let's not let context get in the way of economic scare figures.

Look for GDP to be higher than projected, a trend that will grow as the year goes on.

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And…. GDP came in way below

Maybe in 10 years we'll be able to have the discussion widely predicted by economists before tariffs - that tariffs actually weaken manufacturing in the country wielding them. Manufacturing job losses clearly show that we are in a blue collar recession at the moment. But, I can't imagine evidence and empirical data to sway the religious support of our dear leader to bring us back to earth until he's long gone…. If ever.

Biggest drag was lower govt spending. I'll accept that.

Bingo. People really need to start digging past the deadlines.

In the meantime, let them dance on this number. I will buy any dip and keep on trucking (no offense to blue collar truckers in the throws of a recession).