This could change, but based on where we look to be heading, my money is on China.

Iran

• As the US destroys more infrastructure, Iranian need exponentially increases and they will have few other places to turn.
• Iran also will need modernized weapon systems after the shellacking they took in this war.

China desperately wants oil supply not subject to interdiction at sea.

• From Iran, an overland pipeline is possible through Pakistan and then into China.

• Iran would also become the key platform connecting Chinese military and economic power through the middle east and into Europe.
• Of course, China also gains a huge seat at the table in the middle east.

Iran already has a 25-year agreement (2021) that offers China a deep discount for oil in exchange for modernizing infrastructure. Obviously, the cards will all be in China's favor in any new/expanded deal. Expect to see China owning a hefty percentage of Iranian oil fields/production.

Regionally:
Europe loses as China gains, because they refuse to help the US. (good)
Other Arab states lose, no one comes out ahead if China (or its proxy) becomes your next door neighbor.

Decay said:

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Is there maybe one specific country that does not get exactly what it wants every time the US does anything

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California, Minnesota, and Canada...they are states though sorry.

The war has nothing to do with a potential pipeline. If it was feasible it should have already been done.

Best case scenario seems a lot worse for China. The U.S. and its allies maintain more influence in the region.

Worst case seems about status quo. Iran and China do what they would have anyway.

China.

Due to our munitions expenditures we lost conventional deterrence in the WestPac for the next 5 years.

They could make a move on TWN and we couldn't stop them unless we decided to go nuclear.

Decay said:

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Is there maybe one specific country that seems to get exactly what it wants every time the US does anything

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A troll, for sure, but, Israel and the US come out as big winners. Face it, a great deal of what Israel does militarily and economically are the result of a constant threat from Iran and its proxies in the Middle East. If Iran is subdued it opens the door for peace settlements with the Saudis and others. Israel doesn't screw with other countries unless they screw with Israel - those other countries (or terrorist organizations) just ran out of daddy's bank roll and weapons. It also settles oil and other markets which benefits the US. A side benefit should also be less war material for the Russians.

K2-HMFIC said:

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China.

Due to our munitions expenditures we lost conventional deterrence in the WestPac for the next 5 years.

They could make a move on TWN and we couldn't stop them unless we decided to go nuclear.

---

So then that's the deterrent. As long as Trump is in charge, China won't lift a chopstick towards Taiwan.

K2-HMFIC said:

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China.

Due to our munitions expenditures we lost conventional deterrence in the WestPac for the next 5 years.

They could make a move on TWN and we couldn't stop them unless we decided to go nuclear.

---

Talking heads have said for years China is going to make a move on Taiwan. Hasn't happened yet. Wake me up when China sends their navy over.

aggies101 said:

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Obvious answer is Israel.

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OP says this is correct. FWIW. ETA - Yeah I'm pretty dumb, some of the time.

flown-the-coop said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

---

China.

Due to our munitions expenditures we lost conventional deterrence in the WestPac for the next 5 years.

They could make a move on TWN and we couldn't stop them unless we decided to go nuclear.

---

So then that's the deterrent. As long as Trump is in charge, China won't lift a chopstick towards Taiwan.

---

So your argument is that Trump would use nukes to defend TWN?

Because if he does…we know what that means.

Houston Lee said:

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Over_ed said:

---

This could change, but based on where we look to be heading, my money is on China.

...
Regionally:
Europe loses as China gains, because they refuse to help the US. (good)
Other Arab states lose, no one comes out ahead if China (or its proxy) becomes your next door neighbor.

---

How does China win? Right now, the USA has a leg up on the control of Iranian oil…

---

I could be wrong, but I don't see a likely path where Iran could stop a group from lighting up tankers, even if they wanted. W/o that, no control at all.

The Ex Officio Director said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

China.

Due to our munitions expenditures we lost conventional deterrence in the WestPac for the next 5 years.

They could make a move on TWN and we couldn't stop them unless we decided to go nuclear.

---

Talking heads have said for years China is going to make a move on Taiwan. Hasn't happened yet. Wake me up when China sends their navy over.

---

Sir,

You just described deterrence.

Well done.

K2-HMFIC said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

China.

Due to our munitions expenditures we lost conventional deterrence in the WestPac for the next 5 years.

They could make a move on TWN and we couldn't stop them unless we decided to go nuclear.

---

So then that's the deterrent. As long as Trump is in charge, China won't lift a chopstick towards Taiwan.

---

So your argument is that Trump would use nukes to defend TWN?

Because if he does…we know what that means.

---

China going to have any sand turned into fine china?

4,000 years China has been unable to project power. But year, I guess it could happen. Sure.

K2-HMFIC said:

---

The Ex Officio Director said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

China.

Due to our munitions expenditures we lost conventional deterrence in the WestPac for the next 5 years.

They could make a move on TWN and we couldn't stop them unless we decided to go nuclear.

---

Talking heads have said for years China is going to make a move on Taiwan. Hasn't happened yet. Wake me up when China sends their navy over.

---

Sir,

You just described deterrence.

Well done.

---

China wont make a move againts Taiwan, because they can not financially afford it. China moves on Taiwan, US stops all imports of Chinese ships, Chinees economy takes a faster dump than our economy. China is forced to withdraw from Taiwan without a shot being fired. Why do you think China never made a move when Biden was in office. Even poopy pants would have sanctioned the sh*t out of China.

Best China can do is hack our infrastructure and have spies sleep with democratic politicians.

Israel, UAE, SA, Oman, Quatar,US

The Ex Officio Director said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

The Ex Officio Director said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

China.

Due to our munitions expenditures we lost conventional deterrence in the WestPac for the next 5 years.

They could make a move on TWN and we couldn't stop them unless we decided to go nuclear.

---

Talking heads have said for years China is going to make a move on Taiwan. Hasn't happened yet. Wake me up when China sends their navy over.

---

Sir,

You just described deterrence.

Well done.

---

China wont make a move againts Taiwan, because they can not financially afford it. China moves on Taiwan, US stops all imports of Chinese ships, Chinees economy takes a faster dump than our economy. China is forced to withdraw from Taiwan without a shot being fired. Why do you think China never made a move when Biden was in office. Even poopy pants would have sanctioned the sh*t out of China.

Best China can do is hack our infrastructure and have spies sleep with democratic politicians.

---

It's not wether you think China can afford it, it's whether they think they can.

Xi has publicly said he wants his military ready to be able to take Taiwan by next year…now for the first time…the US doesn't have the munitions to intervene.

So the only other option left, as FTC advocates for, is nuclear.

Uhhh., how long would that pipeline have to be to get somewhere it could be used? 3,000 miles with a lot going through the Himalayas and Gobi desert?

Quote:

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Israel and the US come out as big winners. Face it, a great deal of what Israel does militarily and economically are the result of a constant threat from Iran and its proxies in the Middle East. If Iran is subdued it opens the door for peace settlements with the Saudis and others. Israel doesn't screw with other countries unless they screw with Israel - those other countries (or terrorist organizations) just ran out of daddy's bank roll and weapons. It also settles oil and other markets which benefits the US. A side benefit should also be less war material for the Russians.

---

Iran and it's proxies have been a threat to Israel and almost every other country in the Middle East. Removing Iran as a threat opens the door to a lot of things and closes the door to China & Russia presence in the ME.

I think Israel is the biggest loser in all this. They are losing major support in the US over the perception (real or not) that we were suckered into this thing. I hope this buys them a good decade of peace because it's going to take at least that long before any administration will action anything on their behalf.

Houston Lee said:

---

Over_ed said:

---

This could change, but based on where we look to be heading, my money is on China.

Iran

• As the US destroys more infrastructure, Iranian need exponentially increases and they will have few other places to turn.
• Iran also will need modernized weapon systems after the shellacking they took in this war.

China desperately wants oil supply not subject to interdiction at sea.

• From Iran, an overland pipeline is possible through Pakistan and then into China.

• Iran would also become the key platform connecting Chinese military and economic power through the middle east and into Europe.
• Of course, China also gains a huge seat at the table in the middle east.

Iran already has a 25-year agreement (2021) that offers China a deep discount for oil in exchange for modernizing infrastructure. Obviously, the cards will all be in China's favor in any new/expanded deal. Expect to see China owning a hefty percentage of Iranian oil fields/production.

Regionally:
Europe loses as China gains, because they refuse to help the US. (good)
Other Arab states lose, no one comes out ahead if China (or its proxy) becomes your next door neighbor.

---

How does China win? Right now, the USA has a leg up on the control of Iranian oil…

---

Agree. China is the biggest loser here. China threatens to withhold rare earth minerals and we turn around and took control of their access to Venezuela oil and now we're either going to take control of Iran's oil exports or take them offline for a decade.

This is so incredibly bad for China that any arguments to the contrary are either laughably bad takes or just public manifestations of TDS.

Rising oil prices, easing sanctions, and NATO losing all effectiveness and cohesion.

The biggest winner so far is Russia.

NATO previously lost its effectiveness and cohesiveness. This event has exposed it. Overall, it's good for the US to understand this now as opposed to later.

The Chi-Coms can survive $150 oil longer than Rs in congress can

K2-HMFIC said:

---

The Ex Officio Director said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

The Ex Officio Director said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

China.

Due to our munitions expenditures we lost conventional deterrence in the WestPac for the next 5 years.

They could make a move on TWN and we couldn't stop them unless we decided to go nuclear.

---

Talking heads have said for years China is going to make a move on Taiwan. Hasn't happened yet. Wake me up when China sends their navy over.

---

Sir,

You just described deterrence.

Well done.

---

China wont make a move againts Taiwan, because they can not financially afford it. China moves on Taiwan, US stops all imports of Chinese ships, Chinees economy takes a faster dump than our economy. China is forced to withdraw from Taiwan without a shot being fired. Why do you think China never made a move when Biden was in office. Even poopy pants would have sanctioned the sh*t out of China.

Best China can do is hack our infrastructure and have spies sleep with democratic politicians.

---

It's not wether you think China can afford it, it's whether they think they can.

Xi has publicly said he wants his military ready to be able to take Taiwan by next year…now for the first time…the US doesn't have the munitions to intervene.

So the only other option left, as FTC advocates for, is nuclear.

---

The suggestion that we don't have the munitions to intervene ignores….I don't know….maybe a century of evidence to the contrary. If you think for a minute we don't have enough sitting around to scare the piss out of China and Russia, you are not living in reality.

That doesn't even take into account the level of production we could reach if we are forced into a wartime economy.

K2-HMFIC said:

---

The Ex Officio Director said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

The Ex Officio Director said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

China.

Due to our munitions expenditures we lost conventional deterrence in the WestPac for the next 5 years.

They could make a move on TWN and we couldn't stop them unless we decided to go nuclear.

---

Talking heads have said for years China is going to make a move on Taiwan. Hasn't happened yet. Wake me up when China sends their navy over.

---

Sir,

You just described deterrence.

Well done.

---

China wont make a move againts Taiwan, because they can not financially afford it. China moves on Taiwan, US stops all imports of Chinese ships, Chinees economy takes a faster dump than our economy. China is forced to withdraw from Taiwan without a shot being fired. Why do you think China never made a move when Biden was in office. Even poopy pants would have sanctioned the sh*t out of China.

Best China can do is hack our infrastructure and have spies sleep with democratic politicians.

---

It's not wether you think China can afford it, it's whether they think they can.

Xi has publicly said he wants his military ready to be able to take Taiwan by next year…now for the first time…the US doesn't have the munitions to intervene.

So the only other option left, as FTC advocates for, is nuclear.

---

Luckily for us China is run by rational people. Just like the USSR, MAD applies to China not to mention their reliance on us for their economy.

Other considerations:

1. Xi sacked almost his entire senior level of leaders after VZ. Speculation from two fronts as to why - (1) their notable military tech failures (2) coup by his senior staff who wanted to attack Taiwan now.

2. Japan is still sitting there with the #2 Navy on the planet and continues to build up militarily. They aren't a pushover.

3. We've had "advisors" in Taiwan for a while now helping them to beef up their own defenses.

The western countries and Asia are selling their gold to buy USA dollars as we r rich in oil and gas and we are the only game in town and we only accept dollars, and on top of that, If the strait closes completely, China loses big time.

Europe 18 month Futures for Natural gas is $20/mcf (thousand cubic feet) while in the USA it's $3.00mcf.

Houston ship channel or call it the Houston Strait is the biggest winner.

I agree that China is not the biggest winner here. That defies reality IMO.

All this did was serve as a reminder how much China is dependent on someone else for oil. Building a pipeline from Iran to China is forever away unless they've already started this and I'm unaware of it. It's been fairly widely reported that their Belt & Road initiative has had mixed results....at best so not sure how successful that would be anyway.

And if the next POTUS continues with Monroe Doctrine 2.0, then they won't have access to our hemisphere anymore which they are on record as saying they are going to do everything they can to infiltrate it and usurp our influence here.

flashplayer said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

---

The Ex Officio Director said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

The Ex Officio Director said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

China.

Due to our munitions expenditures we lost conventional deterrence in the WestPac for the next 5 years.

They could make a move on TWN and we couldn't stop them unless we decided to go nuclear.

---

Talking heads have said for years China is going to make a move on Taiwan. Hasn't happened yet. Wake me up when China sends their navy over.

---

Sir,

You just described deterrence.

Well done.

---

China wont make a move againts Taiwan, because they can not financially afford it. China moves on Taiwan, US stops all imports of Chinese ships, Chinees economy takes a faster dump than our economy. China is forced to withdraw from Taiwan without a shot being fired. Why do you think China never made a move when Biden was in office. Even poopy pants would have sanctioned the sh*t out of China.

Best China can do is hack our infrastructure and have spies sleep with democratic politicians.

---

It's not wether you think China can afford it, it's whether they think they can.

Xi has publicly said he wants his military ready to be able to take Taiwan by next year…now for the first time…the US doesn't have the munitions to intervene.

So the only other option left, as FTC advocates for, is nuclear.

---

The suggestion that we don't have the munitions to intervene ignores….I don't know….maybe a century of evidence to the contrary. If you think for a minute we don't have enough sitting around to scare the piss out of China and Russia, you are not living in reality.

That doesn't even take into account the level of production we could reach if we are forced into a wartime economy.

---

We don't.


Due to Iran…it'll likely take us 5-7 years to recover our preferred munitions inventories.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-892077

For JASSM-ER alone…just based on what's consumed we're already three years away from getting back up to where we were in Jan.

flown-the-coop said:

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The answer is The United States of America. End of thread.

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I'm starting to think FTC is playing a long game Texags has never seen.

Your conclusion banks on the idea that we will magically allow supply to stay low for a prolonged period and won't attempt to resupply at a reasonable pace. I reject that idea for two reasons. First because it flies in the face of history to a large degree. Secondly, we will pivot to a more drone heavy force and flex our financial advantage over others with numbers that will overwhelm them. This pivot has already allowed Ukraine to grind the Russians to a quagmire and is clearly the next frontier even based on our experience in Iran. I have no doubt we will learn from that and adapt even better long term positioning in the never ending arms race.

flashplayer said:

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Your conclusion banks on the idea that we will magically allow supply to stay low for a prolonged period and won't attempt to resupply at a reasonable pace. I reject that idea for two reasons. First because it flies in the face of history to a large degree. Secondly, we will pivot to a more drone heavy force and flex our financial advantage over others with numbers that will overwhelm them. This pivot has already allowed Ukraine to grind the Russians to a quagmire and is clearly the next frontier even based on our experience in Iran. I have no doubt we will learn from that and adapt even better long term positioning in the never ending arms race.

---

The issue is in lower tier suppliers who constrain growth…solid rocket motors, chemicals, rare earths etc.

And while drones are helpful…they don't solve Air Defense (patriots), penetrating strike (JASSM), or long range fires (TLAM)

There is literally no amount of money that make us grow these faster… we're in a bad spot for the next few years.

K2-HMFIC said:

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China.

Due to our munitions expenditures we lost conventional deterrence in the WestPac for the next 5 years.

They could make a move on TWN and we couldn't stop them unless we decided to go nuclear.

---

That's simply false. Doesn't even stand up to a cursory analysis of how China might invade Taiwan. What are the mechanics of China invading Taiwan? Land, air or sea? Can't be land, obviously so air or sea. Ok, which of those can we no longer fight off as a result of this action? There's been no dogfighting in this war so our supply of air to air missiles is fine and I'm confident we didn't make a dent in our ability to sink troop transport ships.