About flipping time.

Logos Stick said:

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on the year! Let's go! Trump doing work! Healing the world and the stock market.

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And oil prices falling. Damn we should be tired of winning.

My take...
While on the macro and long term scale the markets are very (even completely) efficient, on the shorter scales they are jittery and prone to panic. It's unpleasant, but it's ok if you're accustomed to it. The market wants to know that they've seen everything coming and have the future completely priced in. This is important to remember. The market doesn't move on good news. Good news should have already been priced in because the market saw it coming. They move on the promise or expectation of continued good news.

Unforeseen developments that catch the markets by surprise lead to that jittery panic and induce selloffs. They sting and they're unpleasant but generally speaking these are events to buy into.

Pullbacks are a good thing. They ultimately free up the capital needed to rebalance the market as a whole.

Edit to add... Unless you have a specific reason to be bearish, then you should be bullish.

Logos Stick said:

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on the year! Let's go! Trump doing work! Healing the world and the stock market.

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double aught said:

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Just imagine where it would be if he didn't bomb Iran. Or impose tariffs.

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about the same place? But all the idjiots who have tried to time the market by reverse-engineering the tweeter-in-chief's mood disorder would probably be wealthier.

double aught said:

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Just imagine where it would be if he didn't bomb Iran. Or impose tariffs.

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Our thumb wouldn't be on the world's economy.

If only the U.S. would keep up this dealing from a position of strength in the coming years.

I've thought about this and I think there's some strategy on Trumps part that he learned from COVID.

His last Presidency was ended by COVID, which ruined his last year and his run.

I think they started out this term to do things that might short term "damage" public perception early in the Presidency so that by the end of the term, those items are resolved and things are a smoother path for the next guy.

So tariffs caused a collapse and then we recovered. Bombed Iran, things collapsed and are recovering. Goal is to have these major milestones out of the way early enough to give a clear path to the next candidate.

AgLiving06 said:

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I've thought about this and I think there's some strategy on Trumps part that he learned from COVID.

His last Presidency was ended by COVID, which ruined his last year and his run.

I think they started out this term to do things that might short term "damage" public perception early in the Presidency so that by the end of the term, those items are resolved and things are a smoother path for the next guy.

So tariffs caused a collapse and then we recovered. Bombed Iran, things collapsed and are recovering. Goal is to have these major milestones out of the way early enough to give a clear path to the next candidate.

---

Now that is 4D chess

Dan Carlin said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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I've thought about this and I think there's some strategy on Trumps part that he learned from COVID.

His last Presidency was ended by COVID, which ruined his last year and his run.

I think they started out this term to do things that might short term "damage" public perception early in the Presidency so that by the end of the term, those items are resolved and things are a smoother path for the next guy.

So tariffs caused a collapse and then we recovered. Bombed Iran, things collapsed and are recovering. Goal is to have these major milestones out of the way early enough to give a clear path to the next candidate.

---

So needlessly do a bunch of stupid stuff that weakens America's global positioning, increases inflation, and transfers wealth away from middle America. Awesome. Can't wait for the next trick "they" pull off.

---

It has to be incredibly freeing to say whatever you want and not care when other people laugh at it.

2026NCAggies said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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I've thought about this and I think there's some strategy on Trumps part that he learned from COVID.

His last Presidency was ended by COVID, which ruined his last year and his run.

I think they started out this term to do things that might short term "damage" public perception early in the Presidency so that by the end of the term, those items are resolved and things are a smoother path for the next guy.

So tariffs caused a collapse and then we recovered. Bombed Iran, things collapsed and are recovering. Goal is to have these major milestones out of the way early enough to give a clear path to the next candidate.

---

Now that is 4D chess

---

First year lowering tax brackets tax rates permanently (yes dems will kick them back up) is greatly underrated.

Even more important for your retirement planning, Trump kept the opportunity to blast funds out of your 401K and put them in a Roth for those of us below the typical $10M estate on Texags -- who have so much money they don't worry about taxes. :-)

If your income is say $200K that means you can get $200K out of your 401K and into a Roth at a last dollar tax rate of only 24% each year. This will decrease mandatory RMDs, lower your overall tax bill in retirement and perhaps let you avoid Medicare surcharges. It also locks in your tax rate at 24% for that money.

If the next president is a Democrat, this option will (almost certainly) not be available.

It's raining money

Dan Carlin said:

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AgLiving06 said:

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I've thought about this and I think there's some strategy on Trumps part that he learned from COVID.

His last Presidency was ended by COVID, which ruined his last year and his run.

I think they started out this term to do things that might short term "damage" public perception early in the Presidency so that by the end of the term, those items are resolved and things are a smoother path for the next guy.

So tariffs caused a collapse and then we recovered. Bombed Iran, things collapsed and are recovering. Goal is to have these major milestones out of the way early enough to give a clear path to the next candidate.

---

So needlessly do a bunch of stupid stuff that weakens America's global positioning, increases inflation, and transfers wealth away from middle America. Awesome. Can't wait for the next trick "they" pull off.

---

Wait! You think America is weaker in the world today than we were in 12/31/24? I gotta hear this. Please explain.

Dan Carlin said:

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AgLiving06 said:

---

I've thought about this and I think there's some strategy on Trumps part that he learned from COVID.

His last Presidency was ended by COVID, which ruined his last year and his run.

I think they started out this term to do things that might short term "damage" public perception early in the Presidency so that by the end of the term, those items are resolved and things are a smoother path for the next guy.

So tariffs caused a collapse and then we recovered. Bombed Iran, things collapsed and are recovering. Goal is to have these major milestones out of the way early enough to give a clear path to the next candidate.

---

So needlessly do a bunch of stupid stuff that weakens America's global positioning, increases inflation, and transfers wealth away from middle America. Awesome. Can't wait for the next trick "they" pull off.

---

I am not big on the tariffs, but you can easily argue that if Trump got what he wanted on tariffs it would reduce the rate of increase on the deficit. Which is big for those younger than older X.

Tariffs have the strongest change on "poor" Americans. Anything they buy with a tariff lets them contribute to paying for our country. I don't see the "middle America" being disadvantaged. And TacoDino is correct in his comment too.

The tariffs got the attention of the entire world, in particular Europe, which they were intended to do.

And they are directly responsible for forcing some of these slack ass countries to address long held imbalances and ignoring of responsibilities.

The tariffs are resetting worldwide expectations and national pecking order, which needed to be done.

They're also serving the secondary benefit of revealing who our true allies are.

If he hadn't implemented those tariffs, we would continue to be the world's financial c*ckold. And that crap needed to end.

Dan Carlin said:

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AgLiving06 said:

---

I've thought about this and I think there's some strategy on Trumps part that he learned from COVID.

His last Presidency was ended by COVID, which ruined his last year and his run.

I think they started out this term to do things that might short term "damage" public perception early in the Presidency so that by the end of the term, those items are resolved and things are a smoother path for the next guy.

So tariffs caused a collapse and then we recovered. Bombed Iran, things collapsed and are recovering. Goal is to have these major milestones out of the way early enough to give a clear path to the next candidate.

---

So needlessly do a bunch of stupid stuff that weakens America's global positioning, increases inflation, and transfers wealth away from middle America. Awesome. Can't wait for the next trick "they" pull off.

---

America is the strongest she's ever been under Trump on the world stage!!!

Technically, tariffs don't increase inflation. Trump's goal there is to bring back manufacturing - and jobs - to the states. You might disagree with the strategy, but it's not stupid. Every government on the planet uses tariffs, always have.

Liberals don't understand math, economics or human nature.

Logos Stick said:

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Dan Carlin said:

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AgLiving06 said:

---

I've thought about this and I think there's some strategy on Trumps part that he learned from COVID.

His last Presidency was ended by COVID, which ruined his last year and his run.

I think they started out this term to do things that might short term "damage" public perception early in the Presidency so that by the end of the term, those items are resolved and things are a smoother path for the next guy.

So tariffs caused a collapse and then we recovered. Bombed Iran, things collapsed and are recovering. Goal is to have these major milestones out of the way early enough to give a clear path to the next candidate.

---

So needlessly do a bunch of stupid stuff that weakens America's global positioning, increases inflation, and transfers wealth away from middle America. Awesome. Can't wait for the next trick "they" pull off.

---

America is the strongest she's ever been under Trump on the world stage!!!

Technically, tariffs don't increase inflation. Trump's goal there is to bring back manufacturing - and jobs - to the states. You might disagree with the strategy, but it's not stupid. Every government on the planet uses tariffs, always have.

Liberals don't understand math, economics or human nature.

---

Can you list out what companies are building new factories and manufacturing plants that were not already planned before Trump was in office?

And can you provide the data or exact metrics that prove America is the strongest on the world stage in the history of America under Trump.

Dan Carlin said:

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AgLiving06 said:

---

I've thought about this and I think there's some strategy on Trumps part that he learned from COVID.

His last Presidency was ended by COVID, which ruined his last year and his run.

I think they started out this term to do things that might short term "damage" public perception early in the Presidency so that by the end of the term, those items are resolved and things are a smoother path for the next guy.

So tariffs caused a collapse and then we recovered. Bombed Iran, things collapsed and are recovering. Goal is to have these major milestones out of the way early enough to give a clear path to the next candidate.

---

So needlessly do a bunch of stupid stuff that weakens America's global positioning, increases inflation, and transfers wealth away from middle America. Awesome. Can't wait for the next trick "they" pull off.

---

Hey Dan -

Can you provide the data or exact metrics that prove America has been weakened in our global position?

Also, can you show data and metrics where wealth has been transferred away from middle America and to whom its been transferred and where tariffs have increased inflation? Tread carefully here.



91_Aggies wants to know.

He literally took your post at face value and starred it. He then questioned my response to you. That's called partisan hackery!

partisan hackery: term used to describe biased, low-quality, or intellectually dishonest dialog

double aught said:

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Just imagine where it would be if he didn't bomb Iran. Or impose tariffs.

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It took maybe 2 months for everyone to figure out the people telling you the world was ending because of tariffs we're fools and fraudsters. The S&P 500 was up 38.4% last year between early April and the end of the year.

2026NCAggies said:

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AgLiving06 said:

---

I've thought about this and I think there's some strategy on Trumps part that he learned from COVID.

His last Presidency was ended by COVID, which ruined his last year and his run.

I think they started out this term to do things that might short term "damage" public perception early in the Presidency so that by the end of the term, those items are resolved and things are a smoother path for the next guy.

So tariffs caused a collapse and then we recovered. Bombed Iran, things collapsed and are recovering. Goal is to have these major milestones out of the way early enough to give a clear path to the next candidate.

---

Now that is 4D chess

---

I don't think it's 4D chess.

I think it's realistically looking at threats to his presidency and deciding to address them earlier rather than later after seeing what happened with COVID.

double aught said:

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Just imagine where it would be if he didn't bomb Iran. Or impose tariffs.

---

Imagine where it will be with Iran not screwing the world over, and Maduro out of South America.

So we're the world's police. Just what we all want.

Dan Carlin said:

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AgLiving06 said:

---

I've thought about this and I think there's some strategy on Trumps part that he learned from COVID.

His last Presidency was ended by COVID, which ruined his last year and his run.

I think they started out this term to do things that might short term "damage" public perception early in the Presidency so that by the end of the term, those items are resolved and things are a smoother path for the next guy.

So tariffs caused a collapse and then we recovered. Bombed Iran, things collapsed and are recovering. Goal is to have these major milestones out of the way early enough to give a clear path to the next candidate.

---

So needlessly do a bunch of stupid stuff that weakens America's global positioning, increases inflation, and transfers wealth away from middle America. Awesome. Can't wait for the next trick "they" pull off.

---

What would be needlessly stupid would be to imagine where we would be if the machine would have been successful with producing Jeb Bush as our president instead of Trump.

Record high!

Let the healing continue.....

When do we invade Cuba and North Korea? A couple more wars and I can probably retire!

bump for the haters!

double aught said:

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Just imagine where it would be if he didn't bomb Iran. Or impose tariffs.

---

Where would it be?

What analysis do you have to support that assumption?

Or are you just guessing and speculating?

Dan Carlin said:

---

AgLiving06 said:

---

I've thought about this and I think there's some strategy on Trumps part that he learned from COVID.

His last Presidency was ended by COVID, which ruined his last year and his run.

I think they started out this term to do things that might short term "damage" public perception early in the Presidency so that by the end of the term, those items are resolved and things are a smoother path for the next guy.

So tariffs caused a collapse and then we recovered. Bombed Iran, things collapsed and are recovering. Goal is to have these major milestones out of the way early enough to give a clear path to the next candidate.

---

So needlessly do a bunch of stupid stuff that weakens America's global positioning, increases inflation, and transfers wealth away from middle America. Awesome. Can't wait for the next trick "they" pull off.

---

1) Our position around the globe is stronger, not weaker. We have forced Europe to spend money on defense. That makes the US stronger. We have reduced foreign aid. That makes the US stronger.

2) The tariffs did not increase inflation long term. All of that money collected in tariffs reduces the amount of money we have to print in the future, which would cause inflation. Inflation is and always will be a monetary phenomenon. Tariffs are not a monetary phenomenon.

3) Printing money transfers wealth away from middle America. We should stop that.

4) Bombing Iran is better than them getting a nuke.

Dan Carlin said:

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AgLiving06 said:

---

I've thought about this and I think there's some strategy on Trumps part that he learned from COVID.

His last Presidency was ended by COVID, which ruined his last year and his run.

I think they started out this term to do things that might short term "damage" public perception early in the Presidency so that by the end of the term, those items are resolved and things are a smoother path for the next guy.

So tariffs caused a collapse and then we recovered. Bombed Iran, things collapsed and are recovering. Goal is to have these major milestones out of the way early enough to give a clear path to the next candidate.

---

So needlessly do a bunch of stupid stuff that weakens America's global positioning, increases inflation, and transfers wealth away from middle America. Awesome. Can't wait for the next trick "they" pull off.

---

You must be incredibly blissful!

91_Aggie said:

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Logos Stick said:

---

Dan Carlin said:

---

AgLiving06 said:

---

I've thought about this and I think there's some strategy on Trumps part that he learned from COVID.

His last Presidency was ended by COVID, which ruined his last year and his run.

I think they started out this term to do things that might short term "damage" public perception early in the Presidency so that by the end of the term, those items are resolved and things are a smoother path for the next guy.

So tariffs caused a collapse and then we recovered. Bombed Iran, things collapsed and are recovering. Goal is to have these major milestones out of the way early enough to give a clear path to the next candidate.

---

So needlessly do a bunch of stupid stuff that weakens America's global positioning, increases inflation, and transfers wealth away from middle America. Awesome. Can't wait for the next trick "they" pull off.

---

America is the strongest she's ever been under Trump on the world stage!!!

Technically, tariffs don't increase inflation. Trump's goal there is to bring back manufacturing - and jobs - to the states. You might disagree with the strategy, but it's not stupid. Every government on the planet uses tariffs, always have.

Liberals don't understand math, economics or human nature.

---

Can you list out what companies are building new factories and manufacturing plants that were not already planned before Trump was in office?

And can you provide the data or exact metrics that prove America is the strongest on the world stage in the history of America under Trump.

---

Adam Taggarts guests tend to sit on the more bear side of the ledger than the bull side. The last time this freight analyst was on the show, he was on the bear side and has flipped completely based on the data he sees. Obviously second hand and can't vouch for the data personally.

Anecdotally, we use 2 primary freight brokers and about 80% of our freight needs are specialized (permitted, wide, escorts, bucket trucks etc)... Their rates are going up (even when removing the impact of diesel) and a lot of that is demand for larger trailers like lowboys and dropdecks which we use a good bit of.

Also intersecting with one of his other major points, our business is directly tied to domestic oil and natural gas production.

Lastly, I'm not supporting the claim as it pertains to Trump, I'm just supporting the claim that there does in fact appear to be a manufacturing and industrial resurgence according to or coinciding with Trump's plan.

Dan Carlin said:

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So needlessly do a bunch of stupid stuff that weakens America's global positioning, increases inflation, and transfers wealth away from middle America. Awesome. Can't wait for the next trick "they" pull off.

---

Specifically with respect to the bolded part of your statement, it wouldn't hurt to listen to the youtube video I shared.

This freight analyst is pointing out the fact that the primary driver of increased freight is productive capacity increasing and pushing goods out from middle America - indicating that manufacturing and industrial activity is, in fact, seeing a resurgence there.