AlexNguyen said:

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Depends on how you look at it. Getting our pilots and navy very real experience while setting back the Iran nuclear program by at least 3-5 years is anything but a disaster.

Every fool literally has a stage to proclaim his opinion these days, and I fear the average citizen's ability to filter noise and think for himself is suspect.

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K2-HMFIC said:

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DTP02 said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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It will take 5+ years to replace 39 days of munitions used in the Iran war

What an absolute disaster pic.twitter.com/QRhK1f2hi8

— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) May 28, 2026

Hope China doesn't decide to invade Taiwan anytime soon…we're basically going to be in the **** chair for that one.

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I think people casually dismissing the resources we've a used to prosecute this war are being very narrow-minded and short-sighted.

But since you're a military guy I'd expect to see some type of analysis regarding which of those munitions we'd need to engage in Taiwan before assessing how much it handicaps us.

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A Pacific war is fundamentally a missile war.

China's entire strategy is built around massed missile fires designed to keep the US military OUT of the first island chain long enough to overrun Taiwan before we can effectively respond.

That means:

DF-21 and DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles targeting carriers

Massive cruise missile strikes on Okinawa, Guam, Kadena, Andersen, fuel farms, ports, and logistics hubs

Saturation attacks against air defenses and runways

Long-range strikes intended to degrade C2, ISR, and sustainment

The munitions CSIS is talking about are the backbone of surviving that opening phase.

Patriot/THAAD/SM-3:These are what protect bases, ports, logistics nodes, and carrier strike groups from ballistic and cruise missile attack. If those inventories run low, you start losing aircraft on the ground, fuel storage, ports, and air defense coverage.

Tomahawks:These are among the few weapons we can fire in large numbers from submarines and surface ships at long range in the opening days of a conflict. They're critical for suppressing Chinese air defenses, radar sites, missile launchers, and command nodes before manned aircraft can operate more freely.

SM-6:Arguably one of the most important weapons in the inventory because it can do multiple jobs: air defense, anti-missile work, and even anti-ship strike.

The bigger issue is this:China has spent 25 years preparing for an industrialized regional war in the Pacific. The US spent 25 years fighting insurgencies while optimizing for low munition expenditure rates.

The uncomfortable realization now hitting DC is that modern peer war burns through precision munitions at a rate the US defense industrial base was never designed to sustain.

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BigRobSA said:

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"It's on the internet, so it's true " - Abraham Lincoln while signing the Magna Carta

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LMCane said:

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Enjeti is a long time Israel hater and part of the Tucker Carlson foreign policy club.

for years he has simped for Russia and Iran and Syria.



the REAL answer: the USA has a @#$@# load more munitions than Iran does!

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Pizza said:

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BigRobSA said:

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"It's on the internet, so it's true " - Abraham Lincoln while signing the Magna Carta

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I was there. His secretary signed it for him.

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eric76 said:

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LMCane said:

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Enjeti is a long time Israel hater and part of the Tucker Carlson foreign policy club.

for years he has simped for Russia and Iran and Syria.



the REAL answer: the USA has a @#$@# load more munitions than Iran does!

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The real question is "do we have a @#$@# load more munitions than other potential adversaries do?"

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K2-HMFIC said:

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AlexNguyen said:

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Depends on how you look at it. Getting our pilots and navy very real experience while setting back the Iran nuclear program by at least 3-5 years is anything but a disaster.

Every fool literally has a stage to proclaim his opinion these days, and I fear the average citizen's ability to filter noise and think for himself is suspect.

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This is true. As long as China doesn't invade Taiwan.

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Quote:

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What we still do not know
Several critical pieces of the picture remain classified or simply undisclosed as of late May 2026:

• Exact expenditure numbers. How many Tomahawks, PAC-3 MSEs, and THAAD interceptors were fired during the Iran conflict has not appeared in any unclassified document. Without those figures, no one outside the Pentagon can independently verify the three-year estimate.
• Current production rates. Monthly output for each weapon system is classified. Senator Kelly's questioning pointed toward official data, but the hearing transcript does not include unit-per-month figures.
• Surge capacity. Whether RTX and Lockheed Martin have received surge orders, activated reserve production lines, or identified bottlenecks they can break with additional investment has not been confirmed in open sources.
• Theater allocation. Commanders in Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the Gulf must decide how to distribute a smaller pool of interceptors. No public planning documents reveal how those trade-offs are being made or how thin forward-deployed stocks have become.
• Broader allied impact. Beyond Switzerland, no other country has publicly confirmed receiving delay or price-increase notifications, though defense procurement officials in several NATO capitals have privately expressed concern to reporters.

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Quote:

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$785 Million Later, the US Navy Still Can't Reload Its Tomahawk Missile Launchers
January 9, 2026

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Quote:

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Over the past five years, the United States has gone through an estimated 15 years' production of Tomahawk missiles. This rate is unsustainable for US national security.

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bobbranco said:

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And Tomahawk depletion has been an ongoing problem.

Quote:

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$785 Million Later, the US Navy Still Can't Reload Its Tomahawk Missile Launchers
January 9, 2026

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Quote:

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Over the past five years, the United States has gone through an estimated 15 years' production of Tomahawk missiles. This rate is unsustainable for US national security.

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https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/785-million-later-us-navy-still-cant-reload-tomahawk-missile-launchers-bw-010926

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eric76 said:

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LMCane said:

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Enjeti is a long time Israel hater and part of the Tucker Carlson foreign policy club.

for years he has simped for Russia and Iran and Syria.



the REAL answer: the USA has a @#$@# load more munitions than Iran does!

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The real question is "do we have a @#$@# load more munitions than other potential adversaries do?"

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army01 said:

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At current rates, he's not wrong. It would absolutely take that long. Contracts have been signed to increase production levels, but those take time to ramp up. Couple in the pricing fluctuations of the raw material required to manufacture said munitions, the cost is increasing as well. Initial lead times will also increase as the raw mat suppliers work to increase their capacity. It's not a good situation to be in for the moment. This administration should have waited a year to launch this large of an attack (especially given last summer's Operation Midnight Hammer attack).

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