Polymarket (part 2)

1,273 Views | 9 Replies | Last: 6 days ago by HarveyUpdyke_Ag
Over_ed
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AG
https://www.wsj.com/business/media/polymarket-social-media-bets-prediction-market-441cdeb5?mod=trending_now_news_2 (paywalled)

Recently dropped an OP discussing the long odds when betting on Polymarket. Turns out Polymarket is worse than an almost impossible place to win...

.. it turns out, Polymarket is largely a scam.

According to WSJ, Polymarket paid creators "to film themselves making fake trades and sometimes scoring fake wins, according to an analysis of more than 1,100 videos by the Journal, along with instructional materials and interviews with creators who have worked with the company."

Polymarket even created a fake Polymarket site that their creators could use to create these fake videos and hide the fact they were being paid by Polymarket.

Normally states can protect its residents from these unethical practices, but the feds are arguing they have exclusive authority over prediction markets.

Deceptive Advertising, Wire Fraud, Consumer Fraud, Market Manipulation -- the list goes on and on.

What a $#@% show. The Feds need to close these sites down until they can prevent outright fraud. Or at least let states take their own actions. One more example of paid off politicians in Washington. It never ends.
BQ_90
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AG
Something about a fool and their money….
Decay
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AG
While I don't think it's much better, something like Coinbase that also has to follow other rules (banking, credit, crypto, stocks) is going to be a little safer.

But prediction markets aren't blowing up because the companies hosting them are losing money...
BadMoonRisin
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AG
You don't say
i'm sorry i dont laugh at the right times.
lb3
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AG
I feel like they need to register each market they serve and offer a prospectus for investors on each position.

Some of the predictions on how many times someone will say a particular word in a speech has no economic value and is rife with insider trading potential. Betting on the weather is at least a viable way for farmers or concert promoters to hedge against not enough or too much rain.
Logos Stick
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SMH... unbelievable.
ErnestEndeavor
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https://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/251922p.pdf

Kalshi and Polymarket claim to be merely trading derivatives and are are not considered gambling by the federal government. They have registered with and are regulated by the CTFC. The 3rd Circuit has issued an injunction barring states from regulating their activity because Congress has given the Feds exclusive authority to regulate derivatives. The CTFC under the Trump administration isn't going to do anything to them.

It is ridiculous because everyone knows much of what they do is just gambling but the way they have it set up is legally sufficient to not fall under gaming regulation.

As for the other violations of law I'm pretty sure the current position of the Executive branch is to look the other way.

This second Trump term has been like Swiss cheese. Good stuff with a lot of holes. This is one of the holes.
Old McDonald
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i'm sure they'll lobby like hell to keep this legal for as long as possible, but i just can't see a world where this **** doesn't eventually get banned or at least regulated into irrelevance. it's the rotten logical endpoint of the online gambling addiction machine that's exploded into our culture like cancer over the past decade
Over_ed
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BQ_90 said:

Something about a fool and their money….

I almost went with this, but there is a difference between fools and those that are conned. They may be fools, but that is the reason we have laws and courts. Even fools are protected by laws.
HarveyUpdyke_Ag
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Over_ed said:

https://www.wsj.com/business/media/polymarket-social-media-bets-prediction-market-441cdeb5?mod=trending_now_news_2 (paywalled)

Recently dropped an OP discussing the long odds when betting on Polymarket. Turns out Polymarket is worse than an almost impossible place to win...

.. it turns out, Polymarket is largely a scam.

According to WSJ, Polymarket paid creators "to film themselves making fake trades and sometimes scoring fake wins, according to an analysis of more than 1,100 videos by the Journal, along with instructional materials and interviews with creators who have worked with the company."

Polymarket even created a fake Polymarket site that their creators could use to create these fake videos and hide the fact they were being paid by Polymarket.

Normally states can protect its residents from these unethical practices, but the feds are arguing they have exclusive authority over prediction markets.

Deceptive Advertising, Wire Fraud, Consumer Fraud, Market Manipulation -- the list goes on and on.

What a $#@% show. The Feds need to close these sites down until they can prevent outright fraud. Or at least let states take their own actions. One more example of paid off politicians in Washington. It never ends.

The lottery is largely a scam too, so what's your point?
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