Miscalculating upside from events

4,560 Views | 33 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by ElephantRider
Brian Alg
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Quote:

According to Destination Bryan, Legends Event Center generated $15.9 million in economic impact for the city of Bryan from May to August. This total comes from a combination of hotel occupancy taxes and sales taxes.

Quote:

The millions of dollars generated through sales taxes will fund city works like our police and fire departments.
According to Visit College Station, these summer sporting events generated more than $14.4 million in economic impact for College Station.


Either KBTX misunderstood Destination Bryan and Visit College Station, or those entities are lying.

In order to generate $15 million in sales tax revenue to Bryan or College Station, there would have to be $1 billion dollars in additional sales ($1 billion in additional sales * 1.5% city tax rate = $15 million). Nobody seriously thinks that happened this summer.

If instead they mean there was $15 million in additional sales, we are talking $225k in additional general fund revenue. This of course would be much less than it costs to build and maintain the facilities we are talking about.

Spending a ton of taxpayer money on a project to chase tourism tax revenue is almost certainly a bad idea. Anyone politician or city official that says otherwise is almost certainly lying or really bad at math.
Brian Alg

My words are not intended to be disrespectful to any of the staid and venerable members of College Station City Council
hydes11
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AG
I would assume economic impact is calculated differently than sales tax revenue.

Also in the article, the statement is a separate line which leads me to believe they are mutually exclusive. You can still have economic impact, but sale tax revenue may come later as the events center builds up their client base.
doubledog
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" Destination Bryan and Visit College Station" math is different than normal math.
Duffel Pud
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Part of economic impact is "feels". One unit of "feels" is worth a million dollars.
EliteElectric
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doubledog said:

" Destination Bryan and Visit College Station" math is different than normal math.

This^^^^ 1,000,000 %
oklaunion
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According to Destination Bryan, Legends Event Center generated $15.9 million in economic impact for the city of Bryan from May to August. This total comes from a combination of hotel occupancy taxes and sales taxes.

To me, this reads that it is only from taxes. Which seems ludicrous.
metroid_84
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My reading is thus:

a) 15.9 million in impact means 15.9 million in dollars exchanged for goods/services due to events at Legends

b) This value is back-calculated from how much sales tax revenue and other tax revenue is reported -- i.e. they use how much taxes is reported to figure out how many transactions were occurring, and then normalized that to similar days of the week when there was no event at Legends.

That's all.
BCSWguru
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to me it means people spent 15 million more than if they didnt have it at all.
Captn_Ag05
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AG
Quote:

According to Visit College Station, these summer sporting events generated more than $14.4 million in economic impact for College Station.

Games of Texas generated $6 million alone, and Destination Bryan said visitors spent $184 million in the community. Both cities said they were excited for more visitors in the area.

EliteElectric
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This whole exercise is known as "blue sky" in the business world. Exaggerating or flat out misrepresenting financial figures to sell the other side on the deal.

For example saying "we've been sold out of these for weeks, that's how hot they are right now", when in actuality they are on backorder and can't even be procured.

If there really were hundreds of millions in impact the cities would have raced to build facilities 3 decades ago.
Koko Chingo
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AG
Brian,
I appreciate you always coming here and posting numbers. It's funny how government officials and entities funded by the government cannot shoot straight when it comes to finances. Truth and transparency will only upset the public, so let's use 'impact vs revenue'.

Actual tax revenue is not reported because it's a low number; 'Economic Impact' is harder fact check and quantify. Don't forget, "The money generated through associated sales taxes will fund city works like our police and fire departments." That is to put an emotional burden on you because we all love our police and fire here. So, making it about them puts a guilt trip on you if you start asking questions.

How much of those sales are from people in Hearne, Caldwell, Madisonville, Navasota, etc. coming here to the big box stores to shop on the weekends? Do they exclude sales from places like Lowes. McCoys, etc.?

Tourism is important, specifically summer tourism. We lose so many people here in the summer and they are cumulatively spending way more in a month. They are also buying products to sustain their household from gas, cleaning supplies, and shampoo to clothing. Our Men's Warehouse has prepped thousands for their first big job interview.

But the students/teachers and others who live here and leave for the summer; do not pay HOT tax like the tourists, so they don't get the news story. HOT tax money burns a hole in city officials' pockets like a 5 year old getting that birthday check from grandma.

And when they don't like your numbers; they don't actually prove value. They just call you a Naysayer.
Bob Yancy
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I'd say to accurately account for Total Economic Impact you'd have to account for:

Direct Sales tax
HOT tax
Venue rental
Venue Personnel / Staff fees
Venue Utility Payments

Which would capture municipal revenue, from which you'd have to subtract attributable expenses to derive direct city benefit.

Thereafter, you'd have to estimate, as closely as possible, indirect economic impact to the community writ large, such as:

Local fuel sales
Local restaurant sales
Hotel revenue
Non food/bev sales (shopping)

I'm probably missing something. I'd doubt any city just lists sales & HOT tax revenue as the "Total Economic Impact", because well, it isn't just limited to taxes.

The larger question is, are cities duty bound to help stimulate their local economies? I think that was answered in the affirmative long long ago. Thus we've had CVB's or their derivatives for decades. We also have laws requiring HOT taxes to be invested in these tourism activities, so the state recognizes the importance of tourism every bit as much as Restauranteurs, hoteliers and retail store owners do. But yes. It's important to get the number right and be as accurate as possible when measuring total economic impact. I've no reason to assume we haven't done so.

I found a calculator online. Going to give it a test run and try to learn something.

Make it a great week! Respectfully,

Yancy '95

https://www.eventimpacts.com/calculator
My opinions are mine and should not be construed as those of city council or staff. I welcome robust debate but will cease communication on any thread in which colleagues or staff are personally criticized. I must refrain from comment on posted agenda items until after meetings are concluded. Bob Yancy 95
woodometer
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AG
Its similar to when Max says it "feels" like its 110 outside when the temperature is 98
maroon barchetta
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For me, it's not only the math, it's also:

- do you remember the one time that George Strait played at Kyle Field and set a record for attendance?

- do you remember the one time we held a soccer game at Kyle Field?

- I went to the mall on a recent weekend and it was packed (turned out to be tax-free weekend before public school resumed for the fall)

The cherry picking of datapoints that the city didn't contribute much if any skin in the game is not an indicator of how we could get more events here to increase tourism and bring in HOT money and sales tax.
Mister Shipwreck
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woodometer said:

Its similar to when Max says it "feels" like its 110 outside when the temperature is 98

The weatherman didn't play that game when I grew up.
Broncos
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Mister Shipwreck said:

woodometer said:

Its similar to when Max says it "feels" like its 110 outside when the temperature is 98

The weatherman didn't play that game when I grew up.

The weatherman didn't push the global warming agenda every day either.
maroon barchetta
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Broncos said:

Mister Shipwreck said:

woodometer said:

Its similar to when Max says it "feels" like its 110 outside when the temperature is 98

The weatherman didn't play that game when I grew up.

The weatherman didn't push the global warming agenda every day either.


Brah. Settle.

It's "climate change".
Broncos
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maroon barchetta said:

Broncos said:

Mister Shipwreck said:

woodometer said:

Its similar to when Max says it "feels" like its 110 outside when the temperature is 98

The weatherman didn't play that game when I grew up.

The weatherman didn't push the global warming agenda every day either.


Brah. Settle.

It's "climate change".


Yeah, that thing.
trouble
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AG
Mister Shipwreck said:

woodometer said:

Its similar to when Max says it "feels" like its 110 outside when the temperature is 98

The weatherman didn't play that game when I grew up.


You must be much older than I thought. The heat index was always mentioned when I was a kid.
EliteElectric
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We didn't have "heat index" in Los Angeles, we had "smog alert" and were told to stay inside and avoid outdoor activity. Seriously
maroon barchetta
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EliteElectric said:

We didn't have "heat index" in Los Angeles, we had "smog alert" and were told to stay inside and avoid outdoor activity. Seriously


Johnny Carson referenced the smog alerts often in his monologues.
Brian Alg
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It is important to notice that often, as Yancy does here, people will say that a dollar of revenue (top line number, before costs, etc.) to local restaurants, retailers, etc. offsets a dollar of additional spending/taxes (taken from taxpayers' bottom line).

You don't have to run a business to know why that is misguided. But anyone who has run a business knows it at a visceral level. To make up for $100 in profits taken from the till requires more than an additional $100 in revenue. The amount depends on what the profit margins are. Yancy appears to be assuming 100% profit margins. Obviously that would be preposterous.

How much should they feel justified in taking from taxpayers in order to generate $100 in revenue to Kroger or Academy or Exxon? Kroger is an outlier. But at consistently less than 2% net margin, if you took more than $2 from them in additional taxes, they'd be worse off even if that was used to reliably drive an additional $100 in sales.

Most of us don't own businesses that make money off tourists, though. So there is the robbing Peter to pay Paul aspect.

If council cared about doing right by citizens, they'd talk about this stuff in a straightforward manner. Instead they BS with the numbers to paint a misleading picture to justify their spendthrift ways.

I'm hopeful the Republican Party gets involved in local politics because these tax-and-spend, command economy, pro-regulation guys are smothering prosperity. And with a city like College Station, we have too much going for us to let that happen.

Edit: I said gross and meant net margin
Brian Alg

My words are not intended to be disrespectful to any of the staid and venerable members of College Station City Council
Stucco
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Just so there is a relevant number to compare the announcements to, the GDP for BCS area in 2023 was 19.5 billion dollars.
maroon barchetta
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Stucco said:

Just so there is a relevant number to compare the announcements to, the GDP for BCS area in 2023 was 19.5 billion dollars.


Source?
Stucco
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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGMP17780?hl=en-US
harrierdoc
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AG
that's a cool website. thanks for posting
Bob Yancy
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Brian Alg said:

It is important to notice that often, as Yancy does here, people will say that a dollar of revenue (top line number, before costs, etc.) to local restaurants, retailers, etc. offsets a dollar of additional spending/taxes (taken from taxpayers' bottom line).

You don't have to run a business to know why that is misguided. But anyone who has run a business knows it at a visceral level. To make up for $100 in profits taken from the till requires more than an additional $100 in revenue. The amount depends on what the profit margins are. Yancy appears to be assuming 100% profit margins. Obviously that would be preposterous.

How much should they feel justified in taking from taxpayers in order to generate $100 in revenue to Kroger or Academy or Exxon? Kroger is an outlier. But at consistently less than 2% net margin, if you took more than $2 from them in additional taxes, they'd be worse off even if that was used to reliably drive an additional $100 in sales.

Most of us don't own businesses that make money off tourists, though. So there is the robbing Peter to pay Paul aspect.

If council cared about doing right by citizens, they'd talk about this stuff in a straightforward manner. Instead they BS with the numbers to paint a misleading picture to justify their spendthrift ways.

I'm hopeful the Republican Party gets involved in local politics because these tax-and-spend, command economy, pro-regulation guys are smothering prosperity. And with a city like College Station, we have too much going for us to let that happen.

Edit: I said gross and meant net margin


When did I say that? I beg your pardon, sir. I ran my own business for decades, and know full well the impacts of expenses, including taxation. Got home an hour ago from council where I lost 1-6 in an effort to lower your tax rate further from what we ended up approving.

Respectfully

Yancy '95
My opinions are mine and should not be construed as those of city council or staff. I welcome robust debate but will cease communication on any thread in which colleagues or staff are personally criticized. I must refrain from comment on posted agenda items until after meetings are concluded. Bob Yancy 95
Wicked Good Ag
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Did you just out the voting record of the rest of the members to the general public ?

The numbers always get skewed and cannot be specifically determined based upon one event so I take those numbers with a grain of salt.

What you can do is look at all tax revenue that came in for a given time period and see what contributes to that number being what it is but no way to know specifically how the revenue was generated to the exact detail
Captn_Ag05
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AG
Wicked Good Ag said:

Did you just out the voting record of the rest of the members to the general public ?

The numbers always get skewed and cannot be specifically determined based upon one event so I take those numbers with a grain of salt.

What you can do is look at all tax revenue that came in for a given time period and see what contributes to that number being what it is but no way to know specifically how the revenue was generated to the exact detail

It is a public vote - as it should be.

https://www.kbtx.com/2025/08/29/college-station-city-leaders-adopt-fy-26-budget-tax-rate-set-utility-fees/

Quote:

COLLEGE STATION, Texas (KBTX) -College Station city leaders met Thursday and unanimously approved a $474.2 million budget for fiscal year 2026 and voted 6-1 to adopt a new property tax rate.
What's in College Station's proposed $474 million FY26 budget and tax rate?
The budget sets aside $390.1 million for operations and maintenance and $84.1 million for capital projects. City leaders say it reflects no changes from the proposal first presented on July 7 and includes about $600,000 in departmental cost savings identified during the planning process.

Quote:

The council also ratified the property tax revenue increase reflected in the budget. Members voted 6-1 to adopt a tax rate of $0.511872 per $100 valuation, with Councilman Bob Yancy casting the lone no vote. The rate includes $0.309204 for operations and maintenance and $0.202668 for debt service. It is projected to generate about $73.5 million in tax revenue and represents a slight decrease from the FY 25 rate of $0.513086.




EliteElectric
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I'll say this publicly, even though I disagree 100% with Yancy on some things, he is really our only hope to quell the spending habits of CoCS government. Most of the councilmembers are from the public world, he and maybe Mcllhaney are the only ones from the business world (read real world).

Keep up the fight Yancy, keep being the lone opposed in a room full of agreement, especially when it comes to spending and taxing
Bob Yancy
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Captn_Ag05 said:

Wicked Good Ag said:

Did you just out the voting record of the rest of the members to the general public ?

The numbers always get skewed and cannot be specifically determined based upon one event so I take those numbers with a grain of salt.

What you can do is look at all tax revenue that came in for a given time period and see what contributes to that number being what it is but no way to know specifically how the revenue was generated to the exact detail

It is a public vote - as it should be.

https://www.kbtx.com/2025/08/29/college-station-city-leaders-adopt-fy-26-budget-tax-rate-set-utility-fees/

Quote:

COLLEGE STATION, Texas (KBTX) -College Station city leaders met Thursday and unanimously approved a $474.2 million budget for fiscal year 2026 and voted 6-1 to adopt a new property tax rate.
What's in College Station's proposed $474 million FY26 budget and tax rate?
The budget sets aside $390.1 million for operations and maintenance and $84.1 million for capital projects. City leaders say it reflects no changes from the proposal first presented on July 7 and includes about $600,000 in departmental cost savings identified during the planning process.

Quote:

The council also ratified the property tax revenue increase reflected in the budget. Members voted 6-1 to adopt a tax rate of $0.511872 per $100 valuation, with Councilman Bob Yancy casting the lone no vote. The rate includes $0.309204 for operations and maintenance and $0.202668 for debt service. It is projected to generate about $73.5 million in tax revenue and represents a slight decrease from the FY 25 rate of $0.513086.







I respect my colleagues for their decision and the council did pass a small tax rate cut. I voted against it out of a principle, really.

Background: the state will likely lower the property tax rate cap from 3.5% to 2.5%. This means that whatever our rate is at for a current year, the tax rate cannot be increased beyond 2.5% without asking you, the voters, for permission to do so. This is called the Voter Approval Rate. The Voter Approval Rate = Current tax rate + 2.5% if the legislation is signed by the governor.

So, if the rate of inflation exceeds 2.5% in any hypothetical year, or if an unforeseen event occurs necessitating a needed increase beyond 2.5%, we have to ask you for it.

In the alternative, if we don't lower the tax rate at all, it leaves a cushion for the unforeseen when setting next year's rate. Years ago, that cushion was 8% and a city could lower the rate for just what it needs today, with the flexibility to make it up the next year if circumstances dictated that.

To me, asking the voters is appropriate. It's your money. If we don't need the money in the present year, then why not lower the rate to a sufficient level and if next year, something happens and we have to make a case to you, then so be it.

As a policymaker, if I'm given a choice between:

A) Never lowering the rate again to preserve a cushion out of fear you'll say no, or;
B) Preserving my right as a policymaker to lower your rate when I can, and if something changes next year, make the case to you then?

…then I'm choosing "B."

I understand the argument on both sides. Just not willing to set a precedent forever more in which rates are never lowered.

All that said, you did get a rate cut and tax rate is low compared to comparable cities.

I hope that makes sense, and I want to reiterate I understand why my colleagues voted the way they did.

Respectfully

Yancy '95
My opinions are mine and should not be construed as those of city council or staff. I welcome robust debate but will cease communication on any thread in which colleagues or staff are personally criticized. I must refrain from comment on posted agenda items until after meetings are concluded. Bob Yancy 95
Bob Yancy
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EliteElectric said:

I'll say this publicly, even though I disagree 100% with Yancy on some things, he is really our only hope to quell the spending habits of CoCS government. Most of the councilmembers are from the public world, he and maybe Mcllhaney are the only ones from the business world (read real world).

Keep up the fight Yancy, keep being the lone opposed in a room full of agreement, especially when it comes to spending and taxing


Thanks for the kind words. I wish they didn't come at the expense of my colleagues.

Respectfully

Yancy '95
Brian Alg
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Bob Yancy said:

When did I say that?

The post I was replying to said:
Bob Yancy said:

I'd say to accurately account for Total Economic Impact you'd have to account for:

Direct Sales tax
HOT tax
Venue rental
Venue Personnel / Staff fees
Venue Utility Payments

Which would capture municipal revenue, from which you'd have to subtract attributable expenses to derive direct city benefit.

Thereafter, you'd have to estimate, as closely as possible, indirect economic impact to the community writ large, such as:

Local fuel sales
Local restaurant sales
Hotel revenue
Non food/bev sales (shopping)

Lumping these things together seems to be a mistake that a lot of people make. I suspect that confusion is what caused KBTX to write the article they wrote. But to mix bottom line stuff (what you call direct city benefit) with top line stuff (what you call indirect economic impact) together is misleading.

Maybe I got the wrong impression and you are not so confused about the differences between these two. But what you have said about some of your projects indicate that you don't have a solid handle on which numbers are relevant to discerning whether a project is a good deal for the taxpayers who are paying for it.

Which isn't a slight on you as a person or anything. It just means you shouldn't be in charge of how taxpayer money is spent when it comes to these kinds of projects until that gets cleared up.
Brian Alg

My words are not intended to be disrespectful to any of the staid and venerable members of College Station City Council
ElephantRider
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AG
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