http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=BRO&StateCode=TX&SafeCityName=McAllen
Here's the local Brownsville forecaster discussion from the National Weather office. It's interesting because they let you know the rationale behind their current forecast.
Here's the 10am thoughts:
Here's the local Brownsville forecaster discussion from the National Weather office. It's interesting because they let you know the rationale behind their current forecast.
Here's the 10am thoughts:
quote:
Forecast rationale and confidence: while deep convection has wiped
out with both movement over land and diurnal downward
trends...first daylight visible images show a well organized
circulation continues...and emergence over the southeastern Bay of
Campeche occurs by evening. With high oceanic heat content and low
shear available to tap...a southwestern Gulf hurricane is a good
bet. Beyond this...confidence in ultimate intensity remains
low...and now track confidence has dropped to low as well.
The lowering track confidence is due to a northward shift in
several models that ran earlier this morning. These include the
NAM/HWRF/GFDL...each appearing to have Alex "feel" a bit of the
upper level trough swinging through the nation's midsection and
into the eastern U.S. The million dollar question is whether this
trend continues or backs down later today and tonight. The other
track issue is how much of the trough will impact the system
before it drifts into a slack area and slow down...possibly to a
crawl.
