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Sunday

Alright, here's where the uncertainty kicks in. We're just coming into range of some of the higher-resolution models, which tend to do a better job handling the timing of colder air masses like this. As we see additional model runs today, we should continue to get a better focus on the timing of the front. So I want you to understand that my confidence is low here, and we're going to need to write the forecast in pencil for a little while.

With that said, the high resolution modeling is indicating that the front could reach Houston by around sunrise on Sunday. Yes, you read that right. If this is the case, temperatures on Sunday morning could be in the 30s for Houston marathon, with northerly winds. (I don't expect precipitation at this time). This obviously is a significant change from previous forecasts, and something we'll need to fine-tune. Again, it depends on the timing of the front

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When will the front arrive

The majority of model data now supports a faster arrival, with the cold front initially reaching the Houston area on Sunday morning. If this ultimately happens, it has implications for the Houston marathon, both the runners and wonderful volunteers. This forecast is still uncertain, but it seems likely that race time temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. Right now I'd lean toward 30s.

Fortunately, the passage of this front is likely to be dry. There also is no indication, at present, of strong northerly winds. So while there may be gusts on the order of 15 to 20 mph, I don't see see much evidence of crazy strong winds we sometimes get with "blue norther" fronts. So expect partly sunny and cold on Sunday, with daytime temperatures perhaps in the upper 30s. We should have more confidence in these temperatures in a day or so. But confidence is high that it's going to be cold.

The very coldest air is going to be delayed, so my expectation for Sunday night is that much of the region will probably experience, at most, a light freeze. This really should not raise too much of a concern. Daytime temperatures on Monday should be above freezing for most of the region.

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How bad is the Houston Marathon going to be?

The answer to that question depends on your preference I suppose. I would expect temperatures perhaps dropping as runners are in motion. We may start in the 40s and drop into the 30s or start in the 30s and hold steady throughout. The wind? It doesn't look horrific, but it doesn't look great either. We expect northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 mph or so. There will certainly be some gusts near 20 mph at times in there as well. The more meaningful wind should thankfully hold off until Monday or Tuesday.

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fc2112 said:

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I run The Cowtown every year but am seriously considering Houston next year. Do they have a big discounted entry fee for the upcoming year the week after the race like a lot of marathons do?

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Jackal99 said:

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I struggle with this every year and I can never figure it out.

What time are y'all planning to get to the GRB in the morning? How much time to just hang out before going to the corrals? Starting in E on account of my son, if that makes a difference.

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Jackal99 said:

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E closes at 7:40, but my paranoid self wants to be there well before that.

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