TFL I think is the most important stat of our young season thus far

Always appreciate your breakdowns. Was wondering why you hadn't posted yet, but makes sense now that you were waiting on some 2024 data.

Noted: starting QB Marcel Reed

Our LBers better be ready, because that QB to TE combo is going to be a headache for us

I saw a bit of their game against Penn St. and their playmakers 0, 1 and 6 are really good. They looked like power 4 dudes making plays against Penn. St. QB is a sixth year guy that played previously at Mizzou.

I still can't believe we haven't had more sacks, but I think everyone knows our DL talent - they've had experienced QBs and gameplanned to get the ball out FAST.

It will be no different this weekend, per above poster boyfirnd, with 6-year QB Bazelek who transferred from Mizzou to BGSU.

Could go undefeated if the game ended at halftime. 2nd half scoring, woof

Bump for afternoon / evening crowd

Thanks for posting

OP's prediction model has been very good from what I have seen. Congrats on that !

If we don't turn the ball over I expect we'll beat the 22 pt spread . That's the key imo, don't help them and we'll be fine in this one. Not that they are a bad team but they shouldn't match up.

BG won top by 4 mins vs Penn St and were 7/14 on 3rd down conversion rate . To me that's the stat to key on (other than turnovers) . keep them more like 30-35% on 3rd down conversions and this will go well.

They are at 52.2% 3rd down conversion rate so far , good for #17 in the nation. We are at 41.3% for comparison's
Sake . We would do well to keep them under 40%. Our defense has allowed a 36% 3rd down conversion rate

Great info as always. I'll take either formula result.

Am I understanding that correctly? We're #3 nationally in TFL allowed/game?

SeaBrisket said:

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Am I understanding that correctly? We're #3 nationally in TFL allowed/game?

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correct; 3rd fewest TFL allowed

great, thanks

Amazing. Always appreciate a well built spreadsheet.

Ags trending up across the board. Looking like a top 50 offense and defense. If we put an arse beating on BG, should be extremely influencial in the numbers.

recalibrating...

We all do love a good spreadsheet, but we may need to do a regression series over the last few years to see how accurate our colleague's work truly is.

Well, only had one game for them to go off of and 2 for us... so, yeah Data was definitely minimal. It's why I hate putting these out before game 5 or 6

Well, to be fair, if we had executed in the red zone, SA's prediction would have been much closer.

If not for two gift FGs for BG, you'd have been in pretty good shape for their score.

And if we had score TDs instead of FGs wed have been more in line there too.

Bison said:

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We all do love a good spreadsheet, but we may need to do a regression series over the last few years to see how accurate our colleague's work truly is.

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These are the types of comments (from the peanut gallery) that make individuals who put time/effort into things like this not want to continue.

I, for one, always enjoy these types of analyses. I realize that attempting to predict the exact score of a game in a sport that is highly unpredictable (injuries, turnovers, penalties, weather) is extremely difficult and for the most part, impossible.

He is using past results to predict future results - take it or leave it

Looking at the points per play stat and multiplying it by the number of plays for each side during the game:

A&M Offense- 71 plays
Points per play Off - 71 x 0.483 = 34.3 pts
Points per play Def - 71 x 0.415 = 29.5 pts

BG Offense - 60 plays
Points per play Off - 60 x 0.557 = 33.4 pts
Points per play Def - 60 x 0.299 = 17.9 pts

Really appreciate looking at this data. You either are considerably smarter than me, considerably more patient than me, or considerably better at excel than me. I expect it is a combination of all three.

TexasAggiesWin said:

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Bison said:

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We all do love a good spreadsheet, but we may need to do a regression series over the last few years to see how accurate our colleague's work truly is.

---

These are the types of comments (from the peanut gallery) that make individuals who put time/effort into things like this not want to continue.

I, for one, always enjoy these types of analyses. I realize that attempting to predict the exact score of a game in a sport that is highly unpredictable (injuries, turnovers, penalties, weather) is extremely difficult and for the most part, impossible.

He is using past results to predict future results - take it or leave it

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Not all criticism is inherently destructive. What if, say, we learned that the model became less accurate after a certain tweak was made? Or if it were better at predicting P4 games than non-P4 games?

Labors of love are wonderful things.