Would've been in the running for top four seed after SEC Championship game regardless of result had we not been outscored last night in Austin and run out of time.

But now, we are in the mix for 5 through 8 in my opinion.

First, the top 4 will be:

1. Winner of BIG Ten Championship game
2. Winner of SEC Championship game
3. Winner of BIG XII Championship game
4. Depending on whether the committee continues with their BIG Ten love affair, and if the BIG Ten game is competitive (not a blowout), I suspect this is where the loser of that game might land - assuming it is Ohio State versus Indiana.

So... our competition for the 5-8 slots are: Oregon (assuming they beat Washington), Ol Miss (assuming Bama wins the Iron Bowl today) and the losing teams from the aforementioned Conference Championship games - all of which will have at least two losses - but with one of those second losses (the Conference Championship game loss) possibly "not considered" in the head to head comparison. Thus, a 2-loss Georgia and Texas Tech might be real competition for one of the home playoff game hosts. I don't count the 2-loss Notre Dame as competition because we own the head to head against them - even though the committee LOVES them using their "eye test" and things like "game control".

So... I think we cheer for Georgia and Texas Tech to win their Conference Championship games. A 2-loss BYU and either 3-loss Bama (or a 2-loss Ol Miss should Bama be upset by Auburn today) would be less likely to be placed ahead of a 1-loss Aggie team in my opinion (though Ol Miss MIGHT be considered if one did not want to count their second loss in the Championship game).

When it comes down to resumes, our win over Notre Dame is a critical distinguisher over the best wins of the other 1-loss teams (or 2-loss Conference Championship game losers) competing for the 5-8 slots. And our lone loss to t.u. ON THE ROAD is arguably not as egregious as Oregon's loss at home to Indiana.

Obviously, chaos arising from today's game results such as Washington beating Oregon and Michigan beating Ohio State would result in a 1-loss Ohio State as an at large invitee replacing Oregon in the competition for a 5-8 slot.

A loss by Bama to Auburn and Vandy shellacking Tennessee introduce other scenarios, including the unlikely (but real) potential that Vandy and t.u. squeeze into the playoffs as the ninth and tenth seed... though they would be on the road in the first playoff game.

So, I think we are pretty close to a "lock" to host a CFP game and have a strong argument for the coveted 5-slot, hosting the group of five representative.

I don't think there is any realistic scenario where we don't host a game.

OK. But should we (can we) get the 5 slot and host the Group of 5 representative?

Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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OK. But should we (can we) get the 5 slot and host the Group of 5 representative?

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I think that will be hard because it will likely require us to beat out Ole Miss & Oregon.

I could see A&M over Ole Miss, who also had some close games to bad teams, but I think the committee will continue to give Oregon an amazing amount of credit for PSU & USC.

We will almost certainly be 7 next week and if Bama wins out we drop to 8. Slim chance at 6, no shot at 5

We know that the committee was favoring A&M last when compared against OSU and Indiana. We don't know how they will judge A&M versus Ole Miss and Oregon.

I think A&M has a favorable SOR and SOS versus both. I also think winning at Notre Dame is the best win that any of those 3 teams has. A&M was also the only team to play an OOC challenging game. That said, it is subjective and they can easily punish A&M to the 7th seed.

In this case there is going to be a big difference between the 5th, 6th, and 7th seeds. The 5th seed gets an easy home game against a G5 opponent. The 6th seed gets a relatively easy home game versus SMU or Virginia. The 7th seed gets to play Alabama, OU, or ND. Definitely want to avoid that.

There are other scenarios like Alabama beating Georgia and pushing A&M down as low as 8. There is no scenario where they are 9th or worse.

JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

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Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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OK. But should we (can we) get the 5 slot and host the Group of 5 representative?

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I think that will be hard because it will likely require us to beat out Ole Miss & Oregon.

I could see A&M over Ole Miss, who also had some close games to bad teams, but I think the committee will continue to give Oregon an amazing amount of credit for PSU & USC.

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Oregon get "credit" for PSU win????

Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

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Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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OK. But should we (can we) get the 5 slot and host the Group of 5 representative?

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I think that will be hard because it will likely require us to beat out Ole Miss & Oregon.

I could see A&M over Ole Miss, who also had some close games to bad teams, but I think the committee will continue to give Oregon an amazing amount of credit for PSU & USC.

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Oregon get "credit" for PSU win????

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Even Indiana got a ton of credit for beating PSU.

Top 4 group comes from the following:

Tosu
Iu
Uga
Tech
Ole miss

5-8:

Tech/Ole miss
Tamu
Oregon
Ou

9-12
Acc representative
Notre dame
Gof5
Bama/miami/vandy/byu

If the chalk doesnt not pan out-

Its a ****show. If osu loses today and Indiana doesnt win the big 10 championship, then Indiana is in the top 4 for sure, osu maybe

If bama wins today and the sec championship, they are not in the top 4. Maybe uga is, Ole miss probably would take that spot

If Tech loses to byu, they might not be top 4, tamu might take their spot

jeffdjohnson said:

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We know that the committee was favoring A&M last when compared against OSU and Indiana. We don't know how they will judge A&M versus Ole Miss and Oregon.

I think A&M has a favorable SOR and SOS versus both. I also think winning at Notre Dame is the best win that any of those 3 teams has. A&M was also the only team to play an OOC challenging game. That said, it is subjective and they can easily punish A&M to the 7th seed.

In this case there is going to be a big difference between the 5th, 6th, and 7th seeds. The 5th seed gets an easy home game against a G5 opponent. The 6th seed gets a relatively easy home game versus SMU or Virginia. The 7th seed gets to play Alabama, OU, or ND. Definitely want to avoid that.

There are other scenarios like Alabama beating Georgia and pushing A&M down as low as 8. There is no scenario where they are 9th or worse.

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I fully expect a completely different set of factors to be used to justify us as the lowest ranked 1 loss team vs the arguments used when we were a 0 loss team.

They'll put A&M where they want and then figure out how to justify it vs being consistent.

We will be 5 and sips sneak in at 12
Repeat at Kyle

pasquale said:

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We will be 5 and sips sneak in at 12
Repeat at Kyle

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So the sips get in, but also jumped by ACC champ and group of 5 team?

Zero chance

I agree that this is what will happen, but objectively I can't see how they'd put Oregon ahead of A&M.

A&M has the better best win. @ND vs USC at home.

A&M and Oregon's losses I'd say are roughly the same. Oregon lost to a slightly better team but at home.

A&M's LSU and Mizzou wins are both better than Oregon's PSU win.

A&M played the tougher non-conference schedule which is supposed to carry some weight.

Like buddy already said though, doubt it matters in practice.

lsuaggie00 said:

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I agree that this is what will happen, but objectively I can't see how they'd put Oregon ahead of A&M.

A&M has the better best win. @ND vs USC at home.

A&M and Oregon's losses I'd say are roughly the same. Oregon lost to a slightly better team but at home.

A&M's LSU and Mizzou wins are both better than Oregon's PSU win.

A&M played the tougher non-conference schedule which is supposed to carry some weight.

Like buddy already said though, doubt it matters in practice.

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Agree. I think we should be ranked ahead of Oregon.

Unfortunately, the narrative is that Texas Aggie SEC schedule was a cake walk. Might help our "strength of schedule" if Florida beats FSU and LSU beats Oklahoma.

I think the only way we drop lower than Oregon is if ND ****s the bed tonight.

Which is a dumb story line since miss st is still in the top 60, unlike many of osu, Indiana, tech etal competition

All I know is I have no idea who to root for.

If Heather Dinich is right about the Ags being 5 or 6, you want chalk from here on out.

Only compared to other top SEC teams. Our schedule is better than ND, Indiana, and any Big 12 or ACC team, so that argument is very weak. The committee knows that and isn't only comparing us to UGA, Ole Miss etc.

Certainly Ole Miss will jump us and SEC CG will be ahead of us. There is no valid argument for Oregon, ND any ACC team or any Big 12 team other than technical to be ahead of us.

ACC champ and G5 champ will be 11/12 is some order.

Miami will be by far the highest ranked ACC team and likely will not be in the ACC title game.

Looking how it's going today.

1-3: osu, iu, uga

1. Big 10 champ (osu/iu)
2. Sec champ (if uga), big 10 runner up if not uga
3. Uga if it loses sec champ game, big 10 champ loser if uga wins sec champ game

4. Tech

5. Ole miss

6-8 (in no particular order)

Oregon
Ou
Tamu

9-12

Group of 5
Acc champ or Miami
Notre dame
Bama or vandy or byu or Miami

Oregon os only a 6.5 point favorite over Washington today

Washington is probably tje second best team they'll have played this season

Committee will do all they can to eliminate as many SEC schools as possible and not have an all SEC final.

Quote:

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5. Ole miss

6-8 (in no particular order)

Oregon
Ou
Tamu

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Why is ole miss going ahead of Oregon, who the committee just moved ahead of them?

Good point. Ole miss' sec schedule is as bad as ours was.

They'll probably seed them as necessary for match up reasons. If it helps to have Ole miss at 5 and oregon at 6 or vice versa then they'll do it

Doesn't really matter. The grouping is what matters.

Who?mikejones! said:

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Looking how it's going today.

6-8 (in no particular order)

Oregon
Ou
Tamu

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"In no particular order"???

The point here is to actually BE PARTICULAR with the teams we are competing against. A 5 or 6 seed has a much better match up than the 7 or 8 seed.

Its impossible to know enough until this evening to make a real guess

5,6- Oregon Ole miss
7,8- tamu, ou

I actually think it is Ole Miss, A&M and Oregon for 5-7 with OU being settled at 8.

Ole Miss beat OU
tu abused OU to a much worse degree than what we saw last night - no reason to move them over us for what just happened

We have like 97% of the data the committee will use and we can make some simple assumptions on the last 3% (like Oregon wins, which is really the only big relevant one), I don't think it's "impossible to know", lol.

I think the relative groups are pretty predictable at this point, if chalk holds and theres not any upsets in ccgs or say Oregon losing tonight.

Final seedings are going to be a little different because the committee isnt going to match up teams who played during the regular season for the first round.

1-4: osu, iu, uga, tech

5-8: Oregon, Ole miss, tamu, ou

9-12: acc champ, go5

2 of bama, Miami, notre dame, byu, vandy