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Player Retention for the 18 Teams that cleared 50% in Blue-Chip Ratio on Roster

3,011 Views | 10 Replies | Last: 21 days ago by ABATTBQ11
mjhhawk
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From ESiPN:

"Among the 18 programs that cleared 50% in Bud Elliott's Blue-Chip Ratio for 2025, only five are getting through this two-week period with limited scholarship departures: Texas A&M (11), Clemson (12), Georgia (14), Notre Dame (15) and Miami (eight so far).

High-attrition offseasons were expected at LSU, Penn State, Florida, Auburn and Michigan amid head coaching changes, and Florida State losing 33 scholarship players after back-to-back losing seasons makes sense.

But Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon, Texas, Oklahoma, USC and Tennessee all had more than 20 scholarship players hit the portal in January. Even the programs that have serious resources must make tough decisions about which players they're willing to pay up to keep and which ones are asking for too much."

That's not nothing. Of course Indiana's dominant rise with a team that scoffs at the Blue-Chip Ratio lessens this impact. But Elko and staff did a great job of holding onto most of the talent from a team that surpassed expectations in year 2 (yes, yes while still disappointing in the end).
wangus12
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AG
Ugh that means we are stuck with the same losers as last year /TexAgs
carl spacklers hat
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Yep. The same cretins who are crapping all over the On3 thread will be here shortly.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
Ugly
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AG
Blue chip ratio has basically been rendered moot by the NIL/portal rules. I wonder if it finally dies if Indiana wins it all this year.
mjhhawk
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Ugly said:

Blue chip ratio has basically been rendered moot by the NIL/portal rules. I wonder if it finally dies if Indiana wins it all this year.

Of the top 11 in the final college football rankings 8 of them passed the Blue Chip Ratio test while Indiana, Tceh and Ole miss did not. So I don't think they are exactly moot per say, but definitely devalued. They certainly need to do a better job of how they rate the transfer players. For example how is someone like Elijah Surratt at Indiana rated. I think he was a one star out of high school but had 82-1191 9TD for JMU before transferring to Indiana.
beerad12man
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AG
One example doesn't render it moot. Until we have more data, I'd say it's still a great starting point and will have some overall correlation to success.

That said, things are getting muddier and muddier with the portal. That much is obvious. You just never know what's going to happen any given year. That can be said for our 2026 team.
Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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i didnt read the article. but one of the reasons why some of the portal numbers are down for certain teams has more to do with the size of graduating class/seniors and or players leaving early for the draft. if you play at a good program and your being paid fairly why wouldnt you stay if a bunch of guys are getting drafted. it opens up spots which is what they have been preparing for.
TxAg76
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AG
wangus12 said:

Ugh that means we are stuck with the same losers as last year /TexAgs


blue parachute for you, well played.
damn near spit out my drink.
jamey
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AG
There's probably a correlation with evaluation hit rate in there
AWP 97
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AG
jamey said:

There's probably a correlation with evaluation hit rate in there


This is key. Evaluation hit rate needs to be calculated.
ABATTBQ11
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AG
BCR is basically a proxy with the assumption that everyone will hit and miss randomly and revert to the mean over time. There should be natural variation for hit rate based on random factors like injury, and hit rate is also a lagging indicator that depends on coaches and talent evaluators that are not consistent from year to year, so a team's current hit rate may be based on staff that are no longer there. That said, hit rate may be a form of overfitting and not really useful for measuring the probability of team success. BCR, being somewhat more general, just takes the noise for what it is and assumes a fairly even chance of hit rate in any given year to grade the overall talent potential available to a team.

BCR *should* incorporate transfer talent and current production to be a better measure of not just high school potential, but transfer potential.
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