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Turnovers

1,852 Views | 14 Replies | Last: 18 days ago by Spotted Ag
TX_Aggie37
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AG
As I reflect on the 2025 college football season as a whole, there is one aspect/characteristic of our team that I can't really figure out: why can't an Elko defense generate turnovers?

We went 11-2 and finished the season ranked 118 nationally in turnover margin. We lost 19 turnovers (14 interceptions, 5 fumbles). That ties for 93 nationally, so that's a big contributing factor in the margin number obviously. We only forced 10 turnovers the entire season (3 interceptions, 7 fumbles). For reference, the top 10 in the country forced anywhere from 25-32 turnovers. I won't harp too much on fumbles because I believe those can largely be random. Some guys are very good at punching it out, but overall it's more difficult to force those plays. Our 3 interceptions (tied for 129 out of 134) were all tipped balls (Notre Dame, Miss St, South Carolina). You never see our guys jump a route, make a play on a jump ball, etc.

We were second in the country in Sacks with 43 (Oklahoma had 45). We led the country in 3rd down conversion % on defense. So pressure was there and we generally forced offenses into difficult spots with at least some frequency. Maybe you could argue that more sacks generally means less interceptions if the ball isn't getting out.

I guess I just find myself wondering how much better this team and that defense could have been if we had forced a few more turnovers. How do the more traditional defensive metrics look (yards/game, scoring defense, etc.) if we intercept even just a few more passes depending on the timing of those plays? Is there something schematically that we do that yields fewer turnover opportunities?

In 2024 we intercepted 16 passes. 2021, 2020, 2019, and 2018 was 10, 10, 10, 7 respectively. Just found it interesting.
EKG1996
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Definitely think we need to be more intentional about causing turnovers. One thing that we need to stop doing is celebrating a play or sack before the whistle is blown. Don't know if this ever caused us not to recover a fumble but doesn't help. Need to have guys going for the ball constantly. Also need more tipped balls by DL and LBs.
Emilio Fantastico
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The place where we failed miserably was in forcing fumbles especially when you consider how many sacks we had because there were numerous opportunities from the blind side to separate the QB from the ball where we just didn't cash in.
91AggieLawyer
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AG
Although we're a little better now than we have been in past years, we STILL do not have the overall defensive team speed other teams have -- and we had in the Slocum years. For whatever reason, that continues to not be a recruiting/NIL priority. I think the lack of team speed, particularly in the LB/DBs, is a huge factor in our low turnover rate. It also hurts our ability to cover outside routes.
lil_frog8
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We play a man-based coverage the majority of the time in the secondary which lends itself to either QBs not throwing into tight coverage or when they do feel like they want to attempt a 50/50 ball the defender is facing the receiver playing hands and not the QB/Ball, which limits the opportunities for INTs. Our front seven generally tackle well which also limits the second defender in strips and punches that generally lead to fumbles.
Fighting Texas Aggie class of '04
HoustonAg2106
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Any gambling pro will tell you that turnovers are a weird thing and are basically just kind of random (not only do you need to force fumbles and tipped balls, but you also need to be lucky to have someone right there to jump on it). It should even out next year I would think, it's not like Elko's defense is known for not forcing turnovers. At Duke he had 19 and 20 turnovers in his two years as head coach and in 2024 we had 17 (only 10 this year).

TheDecadeSapling
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Elko has mentioned this before. He's stated they're working to get faster guys. I think as we go along and he starts developing his guys, it'll improve.
TxAg76
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EKG1996 said:

Definitely think we need to be more intentional about causing turnovers. One thing that we need to stop doing is celebrating a play or sack before the whistle is blown. Don't know if this ever caused us not to recover a fumble but doesn't help. Need to have guys going for the ball constantly. Also need more tipped balls by DL and LBs.


Preach.
Drives me F'n bananas to watch the post-tackle mini-celebrations, clearly pre-meditated and just hoping for any chance in the game to display their goofy little jig.
I'm all for having some fun, but that's not genuine excitement and enthusiasm. It's "hey, look at me, bring the TV cameras this way!" kind of bullsh*t.

After a huge play, maybe some latitude....but it's happening on a lot of stuff that's pretty routine and ordinary. Which is just dumb.
Middleto
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I'll tell you why: luck. My strong contention in the game of football is that turnovers are 80% on the offense and only 20% due to the defense.

Somebody should do a study, but I'm not sure how it would be done. "Taking the ball away" is not nearly as much of a thing as "giving the ball away". We didn't get real luck this year in this area.

It makes for an interesting discussion, but again, I'm not sure how to prove anything.
4
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AG
I came here looking for information on warm, fruit based, baked goods.

Very disappointed, I don't mind saying.
Iraq2xVeteran
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AG
We lost the turnover margin 5 times this season. We managed to win 3 of those road games, but losing the turnover margin came back to bite against Texas and Miami.

9/27: 16-10 home win over Auburn; lost the turnover margin 1 to 0

10/25: 49-25 road win at LSU; lost the turnover margin 2 to 0

11/15: 31-30 home win over South Carolina; lost the turnover margin 4 to 1

11/28: 27-17 road loss at Texas; lost the turnover margin 2 to 0

12/20: 10-3 home loss to Miami in CFP first round; lost the turnover margin 3 to 1

TxAg76
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Iraq2xVeteran said:

We lost the turnover margin 5 times this season. We managed to win 3 of those road games, but losing the turnover margin came back to bite against Texas and Miami.

9/27: 16-10 home win over Auburn; lost the turnover margin 1 to 0

10/25: 49-25 road win at LSU; lost the turnover margin 2 to 0

11/15: 31-30 home win over South Carolina; lost the turnover margin 4 to 1

11/28: 27-17 road loss at Texas; lost the turnover margin 2 to 0

12/20: 10-3 home loss to Miami in CFP first round; lost the turnover margin 3 to 1




9 turnovers in our last 3 legit D1 games....yikes.
Thank you Copilot, for your AI response.
seebond
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AG
We generated 3 and outs.
Which is basically a turnover - minus the field position from the punt.

I just think the emphasis was getting off the field and it wasn't worth the gamble on 3rd and long to go for the INT when an incompletion would do the job.

We made some significant progress defensively this season and while more turnovers are alwats nice, I am looking forward to what Elko builds on for 2026.
A. G. Pennypacker
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AG
Since turnover margin is a stat that correlates very well with W-L, it's amazing we were 11-2. Of course the 2 losses represented two of our worst games in terms of TO margin.

Needs to be a point of emphasis for the defense (and our QB). Probably already is, so not sure why we are so bad at creating TO's.

Just looked at the TO data for the year. There is only 1 other team with a winning record that has a TO margin as bad as ours (Washington St, 7-6). Everyone else (15 teams) with equal or worse TO margin has a losing record.
Spotted Ag
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TxAg76 said:

EKG1996 said:

Definitely think we need to be more intentional about causing turnovers. One thing that we need to stop doing is celebrating a play or sack before the whistle is blown. Don't know if this ever caused us not to recover a fumble but doesn't help. Need to have guys going for the ball constantly. Also need more tipped balls by DL and LBs.


Preach.
Drives me F'n bananas to watch the post-tackle mini-celebrations, clearly pre-meditated and just hoping for any chance in the game to display their goofy little jig.
I'm all for having some fun, but that's not genuine excitement and enthusiasm. It's "hey, look at me, bring the TV cameras this way!" kind of bullsh*t.

After a huge play, maybe some latitude....but it's happening on a lot of stuff that's pretty routine and ordinary. Which is just dumb.


So much this. Make a simple tackle and jump and celebrate like you just won the super bowl. And it's even worse in the HS games. I guess the old saying "Act like you've been there before" has gone by the wayside.
Covidians, Communists, CNN, FOX, and all other MSM are enemies of the state and should be treated as such.
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