Divining Rod said:

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In response to Turner's thread which seemed to say Reed can't lead us to the National Championship because of his QBR this year compared to the last 5 NC winning QBs QBR.


Wouldn't it be much more probative to compare where their QBRs were the year before they won their first championship, to see if it's possible to go from "here to there"? There's nothing showing Reed can't improve further after short of two full years:

Mendoza Indiana 145
Howard Ohio State 140
McCarthy MIchigan 155
Bennett Georgia 129


I think Marcel at 148 is not someone you write off when he still has seasons to complete, especially since he also has a rushing element that those above do not.

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Thats not QBR but passing rating…

For the QBs mentioned, can you also compare their O-lines and WRs for the two seasons? It is reasonable to predict that Marcel's O-line next season won't be as good as this year. WR corps TBD.

Also, a huge factor is the OC change.

exactly

Agreed. You can't compare like he did. Your's is better but still not perfect

Quote:

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Thats not QBR but passing rating…

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such an obsequious dumbass

Noah, and be sure to compare all the WRs and OLs of the 5 championship teams from years prior to years won. Thanks in advance- we'll await.

Divining Rod said:

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Noah, and be sure to compare all the WRs and OLs of the 5 championship teams from years prior to years won. Thanks in advance- we'll await.

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um, that's what I said.

Context...

Transfer
Transfer
Got starting job after second game
Backup who took over

Those QB's either immediately improved statistically with a better team around them or got better after taking over the previous year. In contrast, Reed took over as a backup last year and this was his first full year to start. He didn't make the same improvement they did, though.

Not apples to apples, at all. For any of those four.

Peter Piper said:

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In before someone brings up cult hero Mike Leach about how accuracy can't be taught.

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How about cult hero, Troy Aikman, or is he not good enough for you either?

Op is right. Not a perfect comparison but closer to an apples to apples comparison. Marcel has taken a great deal of criticism. He is a competitor and I expect he is working his ass off every day to get better. A competent run game would have made him look a lot better.

Divining Rod said:

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Quote:

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Thats not QBR but passing rating…

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such an obsequious dumbass

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You are?

Also consider that we have a "new" OC, who will obviously consider ways to make Marcel more effective. I was down on Reed like most everyone here after the last two games, but no way I'm going to presume he can't improve enough to lead us.

I'm way more concerned with how good our OL will be. With a good OL, Reed can be very very dangerous. I know we did a good job of protecting him for the most part, but there's room to improve there and in our play calling, It will be tough with a new OL, but who knows.

Marcel's issue is Klein asked him to do WAY too much in the last 3 meaningful games. Marcel as "the guy" can't win them all. As long as we're willing to run the ball this year and open up some passing lanes, he'll be fine.

I agree with the OP. It does not take a Heisman-winning or candidate to go all the way to the CFP national championship game. It takes a balanced offense to extend drives that result in touchdowns or field goals. If Marcel Reed can take the easy throws, be more accurate on those throws, and stop forcing passes, he will become a great dual threat quarterback.

Damn. Just when I thought TexAgs couldn't take "grasping at straws" further than any previous off season.

The Banned said:

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Marcel's issue is Klein asked him to do WAY too much in the last 3 meaningful games. Marcel as "the guy" can't win them all. As long as we're willing to run the ball this year and open up some passing lanes, he'll be fine.

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Didn't realize asking our QB to complete the short/easy throws with consistency was "WAY too much"....but ok.

Also pretty sure it's not asking "WAY too much" of our QB to complete the designed wide open throw on a critical 3rd and 2, instead of choosing to throw a bomb to KC instead.

Using Klein as a scape goat for Reed's last 3 (non Samford) games is ridiculous.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Context...

Transfer
Transfer
Got starting job after second game
Backup who took over

Those QB's either immediately improved statistically with a better team around them or got better after taking over the previous year. In contrast, Reed took over as a backup last year and this was his first full year to start. He didn't make the same improvement they did, though.

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This.

"New "OC" is the built in excuse once this team doesn't make the playoffs. Its always something

Peter Piper said:

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In before someone brings up cult hero Mike Leach about how accuracy can't be taught.

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Your either the kid that can hit the mailbox with a snowball, or you aren't.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Context...

Transfer
Transfer
Got starting job after second game
Backup who took over

Those QB's either immediately improved statistically with a better team around them or got better after taking over the previous year. In contrast, Reed took over as a backup last year and this was his first full year to start. He didn't make the same improvement they did, though.

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Makes a lot of sense. Something about leopards and their spots…

QBR for the National Champion QB by year from 2026 down to 2016:

88. tbd but will be NFL
89. NFL
88. NFL starter
87. NFL
87. NFL
96. NFL
94. NFL top 5 QB
81. NFL long time stater
83. NFL Super Bowl champ. NC game win by backup who also is long time NFL starter
84. NFL long time starter


Yes, it dos take a star QB to win

Also, Reed did not improve as this season went on. If Reed was showing improvement during the season, I would assume that the improvement would continue into next year. Most data points are indicating that he has hit his peak. Touchdowns were rare throwing or running at the end of the season. Dual QB is worthless, if you can't use him as a dual QB. Defenses know how to rattle him and make him make mistakes.

Peter Piper said:

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In before someone brings up cult hero Mike Leach about how accuracy can't be taught.

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Ha ha

One of THE most annoying things in Texags, EVER

OldShadeOfBlue said:

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I mean, Carson Beck took Miami to a national championship game. It doesn't take a Heisman QB to make it all the way.

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...and johnny football is the ultimate argument that even a heisman qb can't carry a team to the promised land all by himself. 2012 it all came together a little too late (ags would have won a 12-team playoff that year) and that 2013 defense was 2025-cowboys-esque.

HDeathstar said:

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Also, Reed did not improve as this season went on. If Reed was showing improvement during the season...

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...the ags wouldn't have finished the season on a two game losing streak. he saved his worst football for 5 of the last 6 halves (not counting the samford scrimmage).

Divining Rod said:

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In response to Turner's thread which seemed to say Reed can't lead us to the National Championship because of his QBR this year compared to the last 5 NC winning QBs QBR.


Wouldn't it be much more probative to compare where their QBRs were the year before they won their first championship, to see if it's possible to go from "here to there"? There's nothing showing Reed can't improve further after short of two full years:

Mendoza Indiana 145
Howard Ohio State 140
McCarthy MIchigan 155
Bennett Georgia 129


I think Marcel at 148 is not someone you write off when he still has seasons to complete, especially since he also has a rushing element that those above do not.

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Tell me how our OL is going to do and I will tell you how Reed will be viewed this time next year.

TxAg76 said:

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The Banned said:

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Marcel's issue is Klein asked him to do WAY too much in the last 3 meaningful games. Marcel as "the guy" can't win them all. As long as we're willing to run the ball this year and open up some passing lanes, he'll be fine.

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Didn't realize asking our QB to complete the short/easy throws with consistency was "WAY too much"....but ok.

Also pretty sure it's not asking "WAY too much" of our QB to complete the designed wide open throw on a critical 3rd and 2, instead of choosing to throw a bomb to KC instead.

Using Klein as a scape goat for Reed's last 3 (non Samford) games is ridiculous.

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If he can't complete those passes, then why the hell is he dropping back 50+ times per game, while we hand it off 20 times per game (over the last 3 meaningful games). When he was actually handing the ball off, and the whole game wasn't on his shoulders, he settled in just fine. When the whole game was on his shoulders, he didn't perform.

A competent OC should be able to identify when analysis paralysis is kicking in and find a way to help his QB out. Marcel isn't an NFL QB, but he won plenty of games when Klein didn't totally abandon the run.

I think this is not a case of analysis paralysis, but tunnel vision. It's easy for coaches and coordinators to become focused on score/down/distance/time and the very specifics of the current situation and lose sight of the big picture and game statistics.

It seems like they're looking at static decision making tools they've developed as part of their game plan instead of something like a dashboard of what's actually working. It might help if they had tools showing the success of plays versus an opponent's normal or expected statistics or something that gave them a good estimate of the likelihood of plays writing by chance or actually working because of scheme and execution. Not to sound cliche, but they need an AI tool that can assess what's going on in real time to keep them from becoming hyper focused and trying to put a square peg in a round hole.

Sometimes there is success where they didn't plan for it, and they overlook it because of was not a part of their preparation. Alternatively, they can become focused on fixing something they see as small in their game plan and become blind to it's larger, systemic failure. Alternatively, sometimes the players are simply not executing certain aspects well, and even though the strategy is sound, it needs to be adjusted for what is actually happening.

The Banned said:

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Marcel's issue is Klein asked him to do WAY too much in the last 3 meaningful games. Marcel as "the guy" can't win them all. As long as we're willing to run the ball this year and open up some passing lanes, he'll be fine.

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bullsh-t. Marcel just absolutely sucked. Worst QB play I've ever seen the last 2 games. Sucked plenty of other games too. We had to just run the ball almost all the 2nd half vs LSU for fear of Marcel throwing another INT.

Quick take: Compare QB ratings of players on the periphery of the national championship before the following season's national championship for real perspective.

You will see lots more QBs stay where they are or fall off cliff rather than this myopic view of the ultra successful few.