I've been following soccer pretty closely for about 8 years now and it seems that during that time that the number of Americans playing in Europe has grown exponentially. What do you think specifically led to this recent growth? Is it a specific player or event?

I worry that recency bias is creeping into my memory.

I think this is directly in correlation to the development of the DA and MLS Next.

Clubs like FC Dallas are signing kids out of their academy at 15/16. Or with a EU passport, they're going over to Germany like Pulisic or Reyna before they're 18.

So you have kids at 18-20 that have been a pro for a few years and can play in Europe.

Plus the success that Pulisic, McKennie, Reyna, Sargent, Hoppe, Adams have had is paving a way so they're less hesitant.

Previous to the DA, the progress was club team, college, then pro.

The kids are getting developed faster and better than ever before.

That's why our program has surpassed Mexico and why they're going for our players.

Take a kid like Justin Che. He signed at 16 with FC Dallas. FC Dallas has a joint training program with Bayern. Justin went over there for a few week training session and since his mother is German, he was able to be transferred to BM.

BM wanted to sign him and add him to their sr. squad, but FC Dallas wanted more than what BM was willing to pay.

So, he's back at FC Dallas and will remain there until his contract is up or he gets bought out.

I was thinking about this last night during our game, the sea change really is remarkable.
As big a failure as he was at the end of his time, this is one thing Klinsmann gets a decent amount of credit for, he really pushed youth development as a long term way to improve the sport.
It is great to see though regardless.

Kevin the 3-legged dog said:

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So, he's back at FC Dallas and will remain there until his contract is up or he gets bought out.

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Stinks that he's not in a Bayern kit right now, but this is very telling of the professionalization of US Soccer. Justin Che would be playing for a local club in Dallas and waiting until some time this year to sign on to play for free at Stanford or UVA or whatever for the next 4 years. Now he's already on a full pro contract and on the radar of the biggest and best sides in Europe. Although he's not there yet, the market says he's supposed to be playing against full professionals for professional pay.

I think that NCAA men's soccer will go the way of the dodo in light of the recent Supreme Court rulings regarding player comp. Will that be hard on the more marginal talent that were long shots (at best) to go pro? Sure. But the truly professional ranks will be culled more harshly and quickly like in Europe than they are stateside right now.

ThunderCougarFalconBird said:

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Kevin the 3-legged dog said:

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So, he's back at FC Dallas and will remain there until his contract is up or he gets bought out.

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Stinks that he's not in a Bayern kit right now, but this is very telling of the professionalization of US Soccer. Justin Che would be playing for a local club in Dallas and waiting until some time this year to sign on to play for free at Stanford or UVA or whatever for the next 4 years. Now he's already on a full pro contract and on the radar of the biggest and best sides in Europe. Although he's not there yet, the market says he's supposed to be playing against full professionals for professional pay.

I think that NCAA men's soccer will go the way of the dodo in light of the recent Supreme Court rulings regarding player comp. Will that be hard on the more marginal talent that were long shots (at best) to go pro? Sure. But the truly professional ranks will be culled more harshly and quickly like in Europe than they are stateside right now.

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The whole thing is very positive.

I think college soccer will exsist, but not as a training program for MLS. Justin Che, if he plays for the USMNT, will be our starting centerback for 10 years.

Let's tap the breaks there on Che. He definitely has potential to do that but he has to prove it. Richards has yet to lock down a starting spot on the USMNT and he's been the one talked about for a few years now.

Che's looked like a young player so far for FCD; lots of good and bad mixed in. It's a good move to come back to FCD and get consistent minutes as opposed to potentially getting lost in the Bayern system. Richards really improved once he was loaned out to Hoffenheim and had consistent minutes in Bundesliga.

akm91 said:

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Let's tap the breaks there on Che. He definitely has potential to do that but he has to prove it. Richards has yet to lock down a starting spot on the USMNT and he's been the one talked about for a few years now.

Che's looked like a young player so far for FCD; lots of good and bad mixed in. It's a good move to come back to FCD and get consistent minutes as opposed to potentially getting lost in the Bayern system. Richards really improved once he was loaned out to Hoffenheim and had consistent minutes in Bundesliga.

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I didn't say when he would earn that spot or even if he plays for the USMNT. But you're right, there's no guarantee.

FC Dallas is playing him on the outside.

ThunderCougarFalconBird said:

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Kevin the 3-legged dog said:

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So, he's back at FC Dallas and will remain there until his contract is up or he gets bought out.

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Stinks that he's not in a Bayern kit right now, but this is very telling of the professionalization of US Soccer. Justin Che would be playing for a local club in Dallas and waiting until some time this year to sign on to play for free at Stanford or UVA or whatever for the next 4 years. Now he's already on a full pro contract and on the radar of the biggest and best sides in Europe. Although he's not there yet, the market says he's supposed to be playing against full professionals for professional pay.

I think that NCAA men's soccer will go the way of the dodo in light of the recent Supreme Court rulings regarding player comp. Will that be hard on the more marginal talent that were long shots (at best) to go pro? Sure. But the truly professional ranks will be culled more harshly and quickly like in Europe than they are stateside right now.

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I think we'll still see college soccer exist, it just won't have the same quality.

oragator said:

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I was thinking about this last night during our game, the sea change really is remarkable.
As big a failure as he was at the end of his time, this is one thing Klinsmann gets a decent amount of credit for, he really pushed youth development as a long term way to improve the sport.
It is great to see though regardless.

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This is the correct answer. Say what you will about Klinsmann as the senior team coach, he had a vision for the future and it is starting to pay off. He was the one pushing for the youth to get to Europe as soon as they could, much to the chagrin of US Soccer and MLS. Many Americans just didn't seem to be able to wrap their head around the fact that another country or continent might be better at a sport, but that is certainly the case with Europe and soccer.

Eh, I think you're giving Klinsmann a bit too much credit. I'm not sure it was visionary to suggest players get to Europe as quickly as possible. I don't think many, if any, in soccer in 2010 honestly thought that a player could reach the same highs in their career and development in the US as they could in Europe. And I definitely don't think it was rocket science to suggest that youth development in the US was a good thing. The hand wringing back then was primarily around the fact that what was best for MLS in 2010 wasn't necessarily the best for the USMNT.

In 2010, club academies were still very new. They were establishing themselves and they weren't profit centers. They were investments for the future. From a business perspective, the primary value in academy players was selling them as local kids who made it to represent the local club. There was no business value in seeing those assets move to Europe and there was more value in seeing them stay.

Now, however, MLS has changed. First, those academies have been around a lot longer. They (some, not all) have invested in those academies with better coaching and more dollars spent. They've now had full cycles where they can identify young players at very young ages and groom them through their youth teams. In addition, expansion has increased the footprint nationally so while not every academy has done it well more are doing it well now than 10 years ago. That's all led to a better player who, now, European clubs are willing to pay for. So the value proposition has changed. It's now in often in their best interest to sell young players for millions of dollars with sell on fees attached because that will bring in more revenue.

That's the only thing that really changed. 10 years ago, what was good for MLS wasn't necessarily good for the USMNT. Now the environment has changed so that they are much more aligned. I don't think Klinsmann had much of anything to do with that.

Dre_00 said:

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10 years ago, what was good for MLS wasn't necessarily good for the USMNT. Now the environment has changed so that they are much more aligned. I don't think Klinsmann had much of anything to do with that.

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This is a really good take. MLS is what it is and its up and running. "Talent drain" is no longer an existential threat. And MLS clubs have certainly started to realize the value in raising and selling young talent.

The salary cap is somewhat unique to the MLS. I'm curious if the interaction between the value in selling talent and the salary cap has a strong effect on the situation. Does a MLS club have more incentive to sell young talent and look for follow-on fees instead of keeping them on their own roster? It doesn't matter whether the team is competitive because there's no threat of relegation, so you might as well manage your team to maximize profits.

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Eh, I think you're giving Klinsmann a bit too much credit. I'm not sure it was visionary to suggest players get to Europe as quickly as possible. I don't think many, if any, in soccer in 2010 honestly thought that a player could reach the same highs in their career and development in the US as they could in Europe.

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You may be underselling Klinsmann a bit there. He took over in what 2012? The big stars for USMNT heading into 2014 WC at the time were: Donovan, Dempsey, Altidore, Bradley.

• Donovan was already back playing in MLS for years
• Altidore did well at AZ but didn't crack through in Spain (multiple loans), was miserable at Sunderland and back in MLS by 2015
• Dempsey did well but had to fight for everything in EPL at Fulham, didn't do well at Tottenham and was back in MLS by 2013
• Bradley didn't really feature in Bundesliga or EPL but did well for a few years in Serie A. Was back in MLS by 2014

With most of the stars (excluding Altidore) coming back to MLS and still featuring prominently on USMNT leading into 2014 WC, it could have been viewed as players didn't really need to go to Europe and still play a big role for the national team.

You're right the academies plays a bigger role in the shift in terms of providing the technical coaching to allow younger plays to succeed in Europe at an earlier age but Klinsmann's consistent message and battles with MLS did help to keep that narrative going.

With all those failures, what brought European clubs after American talent? Was it truly the Pulisic effect? Yedlin?

Some really valid points that I cant argue with on this thread. The data aspect is definitely one I didn't think iof.

I'm again going to say that the model from club/high school to college to pros hurt us for a long time.

Signing talent at 15/16, homeschooling, and playing professionally at that age has really helped us.

Buzio going to Venezia is a prime example. Tessman going to Venezia.

Kevin the 3-legged dog said:

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I'm again going to say that the model from club/high school to college to pros hurt us for a long time.

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The reality is that not being the dominant sport put us decades behind the global futbol powers. The formation of a professional league and establishing academies are the catalyst behind us catching up rapidly to the rest of the world.

That is true as well. Although the profile of a great basketball player or a football player or any other type of athlete in sports where Americans excel is just different. Hell, pro basketball players are built more like prize fighters.

But that said, the popularization of the sport and the realization that it is easier to go pro at a more significant level has certainly helped a lot. There are a lot more talented kids out there finding their way into soccer instead of baseball or other sports.

akm91 said:

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Kevin the 3-legged dog said:

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I'm again going to say that the model from club/high school to college to pros hurt us for a long time.

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The reality is that not being the dominant sport put us decades behind the global futbol powers. The formation of a professional league and establishing academies are the catalyst behind us catching up rapidly to the rest of the world.

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The MLS has been in existence for almost 30 years. It's not a shock that 15 years after the academies are created we have an influx of very good young talent.

And I agree with your point that until Americans can play at the highest level in the US, we'll still struggle getting the best athletes. But we'll get our share.

This year is the 25th anniversary of MLS founding.

Most of the elite center backs are between 6'0~6'4. Can you imagine how good some of the WR's from football or shooting guards in basketball could be as center backs?

Seriously. Could you imagine a guy like Larry Fitzgerald being a target striker? He would bang home goals at Lukaku rates or better. And imagine if a guy like Charles Woodson spent his career as a traditional #6.

How about someone with the stop and go like Johnny Manziel?

akm91 said:

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This year is the 25th anniversary of MLS founding.

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Ok. 25 years and not 30. . Still doesn't discount the success of the DA developing young American talent.

Fair, but that's a different argument I think. All of those players went to Europe as quickly as possible...they just all came back earlier than Klinsmann thought they should (in the case of Donovan...much earlier). They were all veterans closer to the end of their careers than the beginning. He didn't want them in Europe to develop, he wanted them in Europe to play important games that he didn't think they could get in MLS. He wanted them ready for tomorrow's important USMNT game...he wasn't interested in their development as a player.

I think any USMNT manager wants their player pool to play at the highest level they are capable of. You can make the argument that Altidore and Bradley didn't do that but that didn't really impact their development.

ThunderCougarFalconBird said:

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Dre_00 said:

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10 years ago, what was good for MLS wasn't necessarily good for the USMNT. Now the environment has changed so that they are much more aligned. I don't think Klinsmann had much of anything to do with that.

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Does a MLS club have more incentive to sell young talent and look for follow-on fees instead of keeping them on their own roster? It doesn't matter whether the team is competitive because there's no threat of relegation, so you might as well manage your team to maximize profits.

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Like others have mentioned, the moneyballization of soccer plays a part in this too. I'm not as up to date on MLS roster rules like I used to be (and as complicated as they are, you need a PhD to decipher them) but I'm pretty sure that a gets team some cap relief when they sell a player. The league takes a big cut but there's still a sizable amount remaining for the club to reinvest in player acquisitions or pay down any overages of salary. It creates even more incentive for teams to sell young talent as well as utilize their data analytics and well developed scouting networks.

FWIW, I really don't buy the premise that we'd dominate soccer if all our best athletes from other sports just chose soccer instead of basketball or football. The skills don't translate nearly enough. Lebron James being the greatest center back that ever lived if he had just decided to play soccer at age 5 makes the same amount of sense as Lionel Messi being the best point guard ever if he had just picked up a basketball.

But that's a topic for another thread.

I think hypothetically speaking if futbol was the dominant sport in the US, we'd be churning out elite level players at pretty much all positions due to the size of the talent pool to pull from.

Yeah, I feel like we're just seeing the natural maturation of the American soccer machine at this point. Popularity and money and opportunity all kind of grow together as time has progressed. Add to it that the US is a huge nation and we're finally churning out enough talented youngsters that European clubs are now spending the time and energy to scout over here. Our youth player wages are pretty affordable as well.

For what it's worth, I don't see HS and college soccer going away in the US. It'll continue to serve a different subset of players - those who either don't have the skills to go pro early or have another career aspiration and soccer is the vehicle that pays their way through school.

Dre_00 said:

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FWIW, I really don't buy the premise that we'd dominate soccer if all our best athletes from other sports just chose soccer instead of basketball or football. The skills don't translate nearly enough. Lebron James being the greatest center back that ever lived if he had just decided to play soccer at age 5 makes the same amount of sense as Lionel Messi being the best point guard ever if he had just picked up a basketball.

But that's a topic for another thread.

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Possible but a lot of mediocre basketball players might be significantly better soccer players.

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l. The skills don't translate nearly enough.

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Of course they don't. These elite athletes would learn skills.

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For what it's worth, I don't see HS and college soccer going away in the US. It'll continue to serve a different subset of players - those who either don't have the skills to go pro early or have another career aspiration and soccer is the vehicle that pays their way through school.

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Of course. It's just a path now rather than the only path.

That's how I think a lot of us see it. If it was culturally more common for kids to play pick up soccer than basketball, the number of guys and level of talent getting scouted into the academies would grow. It's not the "if only Tom Brady was a midfielder" preposition; just more of "if only kids that grew up on football/baseball/basketball were playing a lot more soccer."

With that said, I think the US is finally pointed in the right direction.

And as one other poster mentioned, the volume, talent, and value proposition of American players is making scouting here worthwhile. How far ahead, for example, did BvB come out on the Pulisic deal?

Dre_00 said:

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FWIW, I really don't buy the premise that we'd dominate soccer if all our best athletes from other sports just chose soccer instead of basketball or football. The skills don't translate nearly enough. Lebron James being the greatest center back that ever lived if he had just decided to play soccer at age 5 makes the same amount of sense as Lionel Messi being the best point guard ever if he had just picked up a basketball.

But that's a topic for another thread.

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I agree in part. To me, if there was a market for 6'10" or even 6'6" players in soccer we'd see them around the world. The US doesn't have a monopoly on tall freaks of nature.

The truth is that if you're that large, you're not likely at all to have the stamina to run the distances soccer players have to run. The reason 6'10" wide receivers are virtually non-existent is the same reason why 6'6" soccer players are rare.

To me the argument isn't about what would happen if the elite studs were in soccer. The argument should focus on the hordes of sub 6' athletes who play football and/or basketball because it's popular, are maybe quick enough to get a random college scholarship and then never go pro because they're not a physical freak of nature. There is a massive population of folks that fit that bill. And I guarantee that if all of them played soccer instead, there'd be a lot of them who would've made it at the professional level in soccer when they're afterthoughts in the sports they love.