And let's assume for a second that I can't pull off some mega deal for a super star during the season. While it'd be great, I think it's kind of silly to talk about. I mean, Pau Gasol and Kevin Garnett trades are the kinds of trades that make a franchise, but it's silly to draw them up with any hope that they're going to happen.

Heading into next season, you have committments to the following players ($ in Millions)
Yao Ming $17.6 (most likely, technically a player option)
Kevin Martin $11.1
Shane Battier $7.3
Jared Jeffries $6.9 (most likely, technically a player option)
Trevor Ariza $6.3
Jordan Hill $2.3
David Anderson $2.5
Aaron Brooks $2.1 (what a steal)
Jermaine Taylor $0.8
Chase Buddinger $0.8 (what a steal)
Sub-Total: $57.70

The NBA cap, as projected by NBA officials, is going to be between $50.4 and $53.6. That means we're over the cap, and have to play by the set of rules governing that -- i.e. it's not possible to just sign Chris Bosh unless a sign-and-trade were negotiated.

OK, so we have a couple players with qualifying offers:
Kyle Lowry $3.0
Hilton Armstrong $3.8

I don't fully understand the qualifying offer, but I believe it would allow the Rockets to resign Lowry for at least 125% of his previous season's salary. I think Lowry probably commands $3-5 on the open market, so let's assume we get him for $4. We probably let Hilton Armstrong walk, but I could be wrong due to our lack of depth at C.

That brings our salary up to $61.7

We have a team option on Chuck -- I think Chuck has a place on this team as a spot defender. Chuck definitely has a role, even if he only averages 10 mpg and doesn't play some games. We'll pick that up for $2.3, which brings our total up to $64.0

We will probably exercise our Bird rights and re-sign Luis Scola for $6-8, making our total ~$72.0.

OK, so this is what our lineup looks like so far, before we use our MLE:

PG Aaron Brooks, Kyle Lowry
SG Kevin Martin, Chase Buddinger, Jermaine Taylor
SF Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier, Jared Jeffries
PF Luis Scola, Jordan Hill, Chuck Hayse
C Yao Ming, David Anderson

From what I can tell, our team will be founded on hustle, tough defense, and an efficient inside-outside game centered around Yao Ming and the shooting prowess of guys like Brooks, Martin, Buddinger and the occaisional corner shots from Ariza/Battier. Luis Scola and Jordan Hill will get their points from midrange jumpers when their defenders leave to double team Yao and from cleaning up the trash around the basket.

So what's missing to make that vision more complete? In my opinion, a shot-blocking defensive presence in the middle. I have defense as such a high priority and I love Kyle Lowry so much, I would actually have Lowry in my starting lineup with Martin, Battier, Scola, and Yao. That gives you 3 strong scoring options and 2 defense-first role players. Lowry and Battier would mask Martin's defensive deficiencies and Brooks could then be like Jason Terry and come in the game for serious minutes for offensive fire power, likely paired with Ariza for a more run-and-gun type offense. Let's be honest -- Brooks and Martin would make the worst defensive starting backcourt tandem in the NBA. Hill could come in for some energy and rebounding and could even spell Yao for a while so we could play looser and faster when Yao is out.

What I don't see though is a strong defensive lineup when Yao comes out, because this team still has no secondary shotblocking threat. Here's the list of free agents, ranked by blocks per 48 minutes:
2. Joel Anthony (restricted)
8. Brendan Haywood
11. Marcus Camby
12. Louis Amundson
15. Jermaine O'Neal

So, obviously not a long list and I've honestly never heard of Louis Amundson in my life... but I think I'd basically start sending female escorts to Brendan Haywood, Marcus Camby, and Jermaine O'Neal who were well-versed in how nice of a salary a full MLE is, what a nice city the tine is, how much money they could save with the cheap cost of living, and how awesome the Aquarium is at nailing first dates. If you got one of those 3 guys (and I'm not saying you could for the full MLE), then I think i'm ready to get hopeful about the Rockets (barring a playoff injury of Kevin Martin or Yao Ming)


[This message has been edited by HotardAg07 (edited 4/7/2010 3:36p).]

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I don't fully understand the qualifying offer, but I believe it would allow the Rockets to resign Lowry for at least 125% of his previous season's salary. I think Lowry probably commands $3-5 on the open market, so let's assume we get him for $4. We probably let Hilton Armstrong walk, but I could be wrong due to our lack of depth at C.

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If you give a qualifying offer, you have made that player a restricted free agent. The player doesn't have to sign the QO.

Then if that player signs a deal with another team, the Rockets would have 7 days to match the offer. Or the Rockets could give a QO, then negotiate a long-term contract.

If the player doesn't get an offer on the market they like, they can sign the QO and take that salary for 1 year. Then after next season, they would be an unrestricted free agent, but Houston would still hold their Bird Rights. That is what Nate Robinson and David Lee did last year.

[This message has been edited by Guitarsoup (edited 4/7/2010 4:12p).]

Bosh

They will be over the cap next year and apparently Les is willing to do that. He knows that pieces are there. I do agree that Bosh is the most likely guy to go after. He will be your starting PF and will slide over to Center when Yao goes for a breather.

Your trade assets will be Brooks, Ariza, Battier, Jeffries, Anderson, Hill, Taylor, Budinger, their draft pick this year and the 2 draft picks from New York.

Assuming they get Bosh, this will become a Yao/Bosh/Martin team. They will do a lot of penetrating and going strong to the basket since they have guys who draw fouls and can hit free throws. If they keep Brooks, he will have to learn to become more of traditional PG and distribute to his guys and only take shots when he is open (which he has proven he can hit). If Ariza ends up staying, he will have to be your defensive stopper and play more of a Pippen role and just show up in every category on the stat sheet and he definitely does not need to dominate the ball.

Just to make salaries work, the Rockets must include Jeffries and Battier's contracts and will have to include others as well. In the East, you know conference teams will want NY's picks, so those, or at least one will be added to the deal. Rockets can put together a damn good package, but we'll see what Bosh wants. Does he want to go to NY bad enough to sign outright and throw away the nearly 30 mil he'd lose by not doing a sign and trade?

It will definitely be an interesting offseason.

Good by Yao.

Always keep in mind the goal of maintaining assets for a superstar trade. Every big market team should stay flexible to be able to pounce on the next big name from a small market team. The Rockets are well stocked for that option.

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I'd basically start sending female escorts to Brendan Haywood, Marcus Camby, and Jermaine O'Neal who were well-versed in how nice of a salary a full MLE is

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Haywood is about to cash in on the Mark Cuban Big Man Scholarship Fund (/Bill Simmons reference)

I would take Udoh, if available, at the end of the lottery over any scrub listed above. He already knows how to play with unathletic center.

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He already knows how to play with unathletic center.

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Please tell me you didn't just put Josh Lomers and Yao in the same category.

They are both unathletic, doesn't mean I'm comparing their abilities as a basketball player.

He just called Marcus Camby, Brendan Hayward, and Jermaine "scrubs"

Rumors circulating today that the Rockets are looking to acquire Tyson Chandler to fit that backup center with defensive presence role that I mentioned in the OP.

Hotard, we'll see what happens about the Chandler deal. Toronto may be wanting the Rockets to front the prospects for Bosh going to Miami and Morey just isn't going to do that. A bad NBA GM would say "go f*#% yourself", let alone one of the best.