Wow.

http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/nba/news/story?id=5210625

For what it's worth, I really like what Carlisle said at the end of the article and agree 10000%.

I think he'll opt out and stay, but previously I thought there was around a 0% chance he'd be leaving. This changes that a little bit at least.

If the Mavs whiff in FA I can see Dirk leaving. What Carlisle said is spot on.

This FA summer is going to be extremely important. The Mavs could get significantly better or completely fail and be a lottery team going in to the new season.

For those that are interested, I'll repost my BaylorFans post on this tonight. If anyone thinks I'm making it up, I can point a thread from 2 1/2 weeks ago where my same Mavs friend (he works PR) told me Dirk was going to opt out.

Thankfully I was planning on poker tonight with my Mavs friend before the Dirk news broke out . As you can imagine, that talk dominated the game tonight (and yes, I lost even after I reupped tonight as well). Just some comments that we can flesh out over the thread.

1.) The rumor mill around the league is deafening that Amare is headed to Miami to play with Wade. Given the Nets not winning the Wall lottery, I believe we can now take Miami/NJ off the table. Its now looking like Chicago, then Cleveland, then Dallas. Knicks are only considered viable if LeBron can talk someone else into signing for less than the max (NY can afford two max guys, but they'd be surrounding them with guys past being past their prime).

2.) In regards to Dirk -> PHX, Dirk told Cuban that his only desire is to win. If he stays true to that, Dirk isn't going to PHX unless he can't get on with a contender, which is probable because,

3.) Dirk's people have let it be known that Dirk will take significantly less than the max to play with a title contender for several years. This apparently includes other teams besides Dallas.

4.) Mavs PR people have started to put together advertising blitzes for what looks to be 4-6 games at the big yard, all Saturday night/ Sunday afternoon games. The league is practically giving the Mavs a handjob with all the assitance they are "offering" for this. THIS IS NOT FINALIZED, but talks have progressed to the point that PR has started to work on it (example, apparently some corporate box owners have been contacted about purchasing the corresponding boxes at the big yard for the games).

5.) Dirk opting may be a blessing in disguise, because resigning Dirk after everything else is completed would allow them to "wave" Dirk's salary in regards to the luxury tax. So if Dallas had a 75 million dollar payroll, then added on Dirk at 15 million, they wouldn't have to pay the additional 15 million in luxury tax money. In other words, this means that in addition to going after LeBron, Dallas can afford to go after a high quality mid-level guy, or even a Joe Johnson at 12 million (depending on how much it takes to resign haywood.)

6.) Whatever happens, this team is going to look crazy different come November 1.

Make it simple. Dirk to Cleveland, Lebron to Dallas. It would benefit both teams.

Reading the article shows how opting out is a no-brainer for Dirk- he can be more flexible with his contract (get more money or restructure to accommodate other Mavs moves) and gets a no trade clause. It will be harder for the Mavs to recruit free agents via sign and trade if Dirk is not 100% publicly committed though. There's the possibility of a Baron Davis/Elton Brand/Clippers snafu, but I doubt it.

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Wrong again. Let's assume for shats and giggles that Dirk opts out and the Mavs are able to pull some miraculous sign and trade with the Cavs to get Lebron using Damp's non-guaranteed K and sending Boubois. Let's also assume a salary cap of $55 million next year. Lebron's starting salary on a max deal contract should be around $18M at a minimum.

You would have:
Lebron - $18.0
Jason Terry - $10.6
Caron Butler - $10.5
Jason Kidd - $8.5
Shawn Marion - 7.3
Matt Carroll - $4.3 (LOL)
DeSean Stevenson - $4.1
Eduardo Najera - $2.8

(The only guy with an expiring contract is Stevenson.

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Butler is a 2011 expiring, and Terry's contract is only partially guaranteed for 2012 based on incentives (similar to the Stackhouse/Dampier/Buckner contracts)


The Mavs PR guy is either clueless on the salary cap or there was a lost translation. There are some not so far fetched scenarios to get Joe Johnson, LeBron and Dirk but not even close to what he was presenting.

[This message has been edited by InternetFan02 (edited 5/23/2010 5:51p).]

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5.) Dirk opting may be a blessing in disguise, because resigning Dirk after everything else is completed would allow them to "wave" Dirk's salary in regards to the luxury tax. So if Dallas had a 75 million dollar payroll, then added on Dirk at 15 million, they wouldn't have to pay the additional 15 million in luxury tax money. In other words, this means that in addition to going after LeBron, Dallas can afford to go after a high quality mid-level guy, or even a Joe Johnson at 12 million (depending on how much it takes to resign haywood.)

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100% wrong.

dirk would look good in silver...

http://www.lebrontothemavs.com/

quote:

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The chance to play with J Kidd and The Big German. Kidd is the ultimate teammate, a veteran who has guided teams to the Finals

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that's not helping...

quote:

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4.) Mavs PR people have started to put together advertising blitzes for what looks to be 4-6 games at the big yard, all Saturday night/ Sunday afternoon games. The league is practically giving the Mavs a handjob with all the assitance they are "offering" for this. THIS IS NOT FINALIZED, but talks have progressed to the point that PR has started to work on it (example, apparently some corporate box owners have been contacted about purchasing the corresponding boxes at the big yard for the games).

5.) Dirk opting may be a blessing in disguise, because resigning Dirk after everything else is completed would allow them to "wave" Dirk's salary in regards to the luxury tax. So if Dallas had a 75 million dollar payroll, then added on Dirk at 15 million, they wouldn't have to pay the additional 15 million in luxury tax money. In other words, this means that in addition to going after LeBron, Dallas can afford to go after a high quality mid-level guy, or even a Joe Johnson at 12 million (depending on how much it takes to resign haywood.)

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Most of point 5 is just completely false. And I'm not so sure I really buy the Mavs hosting THAT many games in the big stadium much less start to contact box owners about it. This is basketball... you play 41 regular season games a year. I can see MAYBE 2 games where you'd draw significantly more than 20k-25k to a game... and both of those would be against the Lakers.

Scenario to get Joe Johnson and LeBron:

1. LeBron decides that he wants a sign and trade, so he can get max money/years and expand the list of available teams. Dallas is then one of the top viable teams that satisfies both LeBron and Cleveland (LeBron wants a big market team with an established superstar that doesn't cause alpha dog problems; Cleveland wants pieces in return that help the rebuilding process and prefers to send LeBron to the West).

Dallas trades Dampier's contract+Beaubois+2 picks+cash for LeBron

2. Atlanta doesn't want to pay Joe Johnson max money, but doesn't want to lose him for nothing. They also want to reload around Josh Smith/Al Horford and want to dump bad contracts like Bibby/Marvin Williams. Dallas offers big expiring contract/all-star talent (Butler) plus expiring contracts Stevenson+Barea.

Dallas trades Butler+Stevenson+Barea for S&T Joe Johnson+(Bibby or Marvin)

Note - I wouldn't push for Joe Johnson (he's a Michael Finley clone) but it's an option.

Dirk to San Antonio would make San Antonio a contender, with Manu, Parker, and Timmy coming back...

But, he would have to be willing to play for dirt cheap...

Without Dirk, Timmy et al. have won their last title...

In the end, I'm cool with 4, but damn, add Dirk and go for 5? Very tempting inside my own little Utopia...

The Spurs have to get BETTER on defense, not worse...

I thought it had been talked about, for a long time now, that dirk had publicly said he would rework his contract to be able to go after another superstar...

Dirk could take the league minimum next year and Dallas still wouldn't have enough cap room to offer anyone the max. It really doesn't matter how Dirk reworks his contract as long as Cuban is happy to lose money in order to win.