Kobe is at #6 now. Do you think he is motivated to pass #5 (Shaq)?

How high can kobe go realistically? Let's say Kobe averages 20 pts/game for 4 more years (for his career he is averaging over 25). This would be 82*4*20 = 6560 more points - right around 34000 points putting him at #3 (assuming shaq retires). I just don't see him matching kareem, unless he hangs around a long time as a second fiddle to milk the points.

1 kareem - 38387
2 malone - 36,928
3 - jordan - 32,292
4 - wilt - 31,419
5 - shaq - 28,590
6 - mamba - 27,423

This isn't a love/hate kobe thread.

Kobe won't do it. Didn't get enough minutes during his early years. Cap's record is untouchable. LeBron, maybe.

He can probably pass Jordan, which would be pretty significant. I agree that Malone and Kareem are not in danger.

provided some freak unexpected end to career, lebron will absolutely pass kareem.

kobe...nope. unless he does something unheard of. which he wont.

I think LeBron passing Kareem is debatable. There's going to be a point where he doesn't have the explosion anymore. If he can develop a consistent mid range game, maybe. But to catch him, his game will have to evolve, that's for sure.

kobe will definitely try to pass jordan

It is going to be close with catching Jordan.

Kobe has already played in more regular season and playoff games than MJ, and he is close to passing him in minutes played (already passed him in playoff minutes)

MJ probably could have played 17-18 years and been productive with about 20 ppg at the end.

I think Kobe has 3 good years left in him, which will put him really close, and if he wants to pass him with an extra year or two he probably can.

In 2020, the top 10 will look something like this:

1 - LeBron
2 - Kareem
3 - Malone
4 - Mamba
5 - Jordan
6 - Shaq
7 - Nowitzki
8 - Moses Malone
9 - Garnett
10 - Elvin Hayes

Basically, people with 27k or more (most likely).

quote:

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Didn't get enough minutes during his early years

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In his early years, Kobe was <21. Those above him on the list weren't even in the league at the same age. He won't pass everyone above him, but it won't be for the reason you said.

If anything, it was meant more as a reason why LeBron will be more likely to break the all-time scoring record than Kobe will be.

Looks like you guys are forgetting Durant.

He is 22.5 and has 7600 points. James playing with Wade is going to affect his scoring for a while (26ppg this year, lowest since rookie year.) He's mostly on par with James' for scoring, career wise.

quote:

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Looks like you guys are forgetting Durant.

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Bingo.

Dirks game should age well (he is 32). He can keep scoring 20 for another 5 years... that's another 8k... gets him to 30-3k1. If he plays another year or two after that he might get to Jordan's number.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/default_all_time_leaders/AllTimeLeadersPTSQuery.html?topic=4&stat=1



Durant is still very young and a lot could happen, but his game should age well also.

What about Carmelo?


[This message has been edited by BBDP (edited 3/14/2011 12:41p).]

Dirk is not going to score 20 through age 37.

Probably not........, but he does not depend on athletic ability now and he will still be 7' and his percentages have only gotten better.

Yeah, as much as I hate it, Durant is the real threat to Kareem. LeBron is A threat, but Durant is the biggest threat. What if Durant averages 30ppg for the next 10 years? Then he's still only 32 and can still average 20+ ppg easily for another few years.

Why do you hate it? Durant is that ninja.

I don't think Durant will average more than 30 very often. He plays through the offense and takes what he gets... and he does not pick up the trash points that those 30 point guys have to get.... MJ and wilt were dominant defensive players and wilt on the offensive glass and it gave them some easy points... KD won't get those in those quantities...............

KD will score a lot of points for a long time. Like I said, his points come through the offense and he is similar to Dirk in that he does not need athletic ability to score/get open. I could see his game averging 25 points till he is close to 35.