Every game has been pretty close (obviously, Miami had a chance to blow out game 2). I think the series is due for a blowout. My heart says Mavs pull it all together:

Dirk feels good; Terry, Kidd, and Barea start hitting open 3s (I doubt Peja sees the court unless they're up by 15), and Tyson continues his rebounding prowess. Lebron overcompensates for a bad game 4, and takes shots away from Wade. Carlisle reaffirms that he is >>> Spoelstra, and makes all the right adjustments.

Dallas' lead gets to 20 in the 3rd.

Final score:
Mavs - 102
Heat - 90

If that happens I predict the Mavs take the lead in the series, anything else would jinx'em.

Another close game, Heat pull it off.
Lebron recovers, gets a triple-double.

My prediction was Heat in 6, so I guess they have to win to make me right.

Heat going away.

I fully expect LeBron to bounce back, and unfortunately I think he will in a big way.

This should be another close one...do the Mavs have the killer instinct to turn the corner and take command of the series? I sure hope so...

i see another 4th quarter meltdown by heat..... dirk is a true closer, and chandler is getting agressive & confident picking up trash down low

LeBron *should* have answered doubters in game 3. He didn't. He certainly should have in game 4, and didn't.

Mavs win another tight game.

Heat by 8 is what my gut says.


I honestly don't know.

I thought Heat would win 1 and 2. After they lost 2, I took them in game 3. I had the Mavs in game 4.

This one...I am going with the Heat.

Nothing that the Mavs have done that would make me believe that they can blowout the Heat. The Heat have been the pace setters with Dallas finding ways to win at the end with the Heat's offense getting stagnate and making bad decisions. Neither team is playing particularly well, but that suits the Heat better than the Mavs. Which is why I pick the Heat to win this one.

I felt really good about game 4, like I knew the Mavs would win.

I have no idea what to feel about this game, but I have random gut-feelings about how certain people will perform.

Big 3 will go for 20+ each.
JJ will score in double figures.
Chandler will have a double double.
JET will have 21.

One thing I do feel very confident about is Dirk and JET. I know, Dirk is a given, but I wouldn't be surprised if he pushed 40/10 tonight and JET rattles off 25.

We also have not seen one good game from Kidd this series (wth is up with all of these balls he keeps throwing out of bounds??). I think he brings his A game tonight and limits those turnovers he's been handing over.

if miami wins game five, series over.

Heat will go up by 7-10 in the 4th, Refs will send Mavs to the line to keep it close, heat lead gets cut to 1 due to ineptitude on offense, then someone on the heat will either hit a 3 or get a bucket +1 to go up by four, mavs cut it down to 1, heat pull out the win in a close one by less than three.

Either that, or LBJ decides he's gonna live up to his potential and him and DWade murder the mavs and they win by 15+.

quote:

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Not sure what happens in Game 6 and 7, but I really feel like Dallas wins this big.

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i'm starting to respect you DC

The Heat defense is good, but it shouldn't be causing this many foolish turnovers by the Mavs. The tables turn on the role players, and Heat under perform and Mavs finally get solid role play and get back to Western Conference form for a W.

Mavs shoot > 50%, build a high teens, low 20s lead in the 2nd half....but it gets to single digits late in the 4th, just enough to make me throw up all over myself. mavs by 7.

Lebron throws a temper tantrum on the bench after picking up 3 fouls before half time.

Mavs by 6.

I'll go with ..

Mavs 92
Heat 85

Mavs win this one big. Dallas hasn't had a great shooting night yet, they are due. Miami plays good defense, but Mavs are missing too many makeable jump shots. Not tonight. Crowd will be going bananas.

Mavs win by 4.

I agree with DC... the only thing that scares me is Lebron getting loose. I think Bosh and Wade have already played their best basketball. hopefully wade cools off.

Interesting Wade stat: In his 2 best games of the series (they've all been good), he's had 36 and 32 points, .650% shooting, and the Mavs have won. I don't know if that means anything for game 5, but maybe that's a strategy: double Lebron, and force Wade to try and win by himself?

quote:

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One thing I do feel very confident about is Dirk and JET. I know, Dirk is a given, but I wouldn't be surprised if he pushed 40/10 tonight and JET rattles off 25.

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I think this is very unlikely. The Mavs win easily if this happens. If Dirk even goes for 32 and Terry 20, then Mavs win.

Per scoresandodds.com, 95% of the moneyline (and 70% with the spread) have been for the Heat. So going by the Tim Donaghy method (when there is a big discrepancy of betting or a huge line movement, bet on Vegas) the Mavs will win. This method was correct for games 2, 3, & 4 of this series.

quote:

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The Mavs win easily if this happens. If Dirk even goes for 32 and Terry 20, then Mavs win.

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I don't think you can say they win easily if they put up those #'s. Game 3 Dirk went 34/11 and Terry had 15pts and still lost. What I should have said instead of posting specific stat totals was if Dirk is truly healthy and JET builds on his game 4 performance, they will get their numbers and the odds of a Mavs win are decent.

Even more important IMO is Chandler. If he replicates his effort in game 4, that is very hard to counter in the paint. He is the key.

Mavs by 4. I see a final score of 92-88. Dirk bounces back and gets help from the bench, Wade plays great as usual and Lebron does ok but not great. I also think the Heat get in to early foul trouble tonight trying to hard to win for fear of going down 3-2 in the series.

I like BKL's strategy.

It may be the kool aid talkin, but I say Mavs by 6.



[This message has been edited by rcb05 (edited 6/9/2011 4:23p).]

>>Nothing that the Mavs have done that would make me believe that they can blowout the Heat.<<

I don't think the Mavs will win the series, but I strongly disagree with this -- at least in terms of what they've done in the playoffs. Credit the Heat for some of it, but none of the Mavs supporting cast have had really good games in this series -- though some have been OK. IF Jet, Peja, and JJ can go off ala Lakers game 4, this can be a blowout.

I still say the Mavs hold the key to all these games -- play well, give Dirk help, and they a solid chance.

Also, Lebron will shoot 15+ free throws tonight.

Never underestimate the hunger of a veteran team, whose time is running out, collectively looking for their first championship versus a young team who feels like they have all the time in the world.

I'm a complete wreck. No idea what's going to happen. The dog is on notice not to get in my way.