Now that it looks like the spurs amazing run is over, let me ask, how many titles would they have won if someone else's ping pong ball had randomly popped out and they never got duncan? Say they got the #2 pick (Keith van horn). I say they would have no titles.

I am not a spurs fan, but I am not trying to hate. Just showing how small things (luck) can make a big difference. Around TD, they have drafted really well and have great coaching. However, in the end, if lady luck hadn't popped out the ping pong ball, they would likely have 0 titles. I think any spur fan denying this is delusional.

You could make similar arguments elsewhere of course. What if the bengals had taken Emmitt instead of james francis - how many titles would the cowboys have won (all 3 or less?). Luck always plays a role. However, a random bounce of a ping pong ball can change the course of a franchise for over a decade.

Yes, I am a bitter maverick fan. The mavericks always seemed to move down in the lottery (JKidd is an exception). I hate the lottery.

Why don't they have it in the NFL? there are only 16 games so it would be much easier to tank (I know there are more players per team in the NFL so you could argue one guy is less important than the NBA).

And here we go. This will turn into a pissing match very soon.

Yes, the Spurs were lucky to get Duncan. Your point? If the Celtics were to get him we could start a thread "I wonder how many titles the Celtics would have won if they didn't get Duncan?". And so on and so on.

I'd be willing to bet that the Celtics would not have as many titles as the Spurs if they had gotten Duncan. Nothing to do with Duncan, but the pairings of him + Pop + Manu + TP have been very fortunate.

Not to mention the Spurs front office > Celtics front office.

How many titles would the Mav's had without Dirk?

It is what it is...obviously without having the gpfoat the Spurs might not have won any titles.

But why stop there? Maybe without Duncan they get the lottery again and get Dirk instead of Dallas? We can play this game all night long but in the end the sky is blue, the grass is green, and Tim Duncan is a Spur.

How many titles would Larry Bird have had if he hadn't blown out his back building his mom's driveway and if Len Bias hadn't OD'd?

What if Jordan never played baseball?

What if Magic had never gotten the HIV?

What if Shaq and Kobe would've stayed together longer?

What if the Trail Blazers would've drafted Michael Jordan and Kevin Durant instead of Sam Bowie and Greg Oden?

We'll never know and who cares?

[This message has been edited by Acosmicbandito (edited 6/7/2012 10:30a).]

If the officials had ruled megatron's TD a TD, the lions would have won and the packers wouldn't have made the playoffs (no super bowl)

My point is to show how small things out of your control can make a big difference. When it is a ping pong ball (as opposed to another team, an injury, a ref's call etc), it is even more amazing that a team's fate for over a decade is completely changed. We're not talking the outcome of a single game. We are talking a ~14 year run dictated by a ping pong ball. They would have been good without TD, but likely no titles.

the others are correct, TD is a spur, they won 4 titles, and if someone else's ball had come out, this would all be different. But it didn't so all we can do is look back and say how important this small random event was. sports are fun.

aCosmicBandito: none of the items you listed are random like the physics of a ping pong ball.

All of those things are random except for draft picks which are choices made by the organization. You cant make players decisions for them or force them to get along. Lebron James could get killed in a car wreck or Kevin Garnett could blow out his knee or ankle early in this next game to end his career.

Even those draft picks are random since you never know who is going to pan out in the pros. You think Portland wouldve made those choices if they had known what they were doing? Look at the NFL. A highly drafted QB can either set you up for success or cripple your franchise for years. Why do you think they changed the rookie contracts?

Life is random and you just prepare your best and roll with the punches. The Spurs have always been a good organization and who knows what they would've done without Duncan. Considering he is their only lottery pick on this team, and only one on 3 of 4 of their titles, I'm sure they would've figured something out and gotten a few higher draft picks than they've gotten over the last decade to pick someone else up as well. It all starts with good coaching, scouting, and management.

I think duncan was on all 4 title teams

Drafting a player has some luck, but there is skill

making a trade has lots of skill (and some luck) Kobe for vlade comes to mind

you can put in place team wide policies to minimize a player getting hurt (but there still is luck to it I agree)

a ping pong ball is pure luck. It seems amazing that if they had opened the hopper a millisecond earlier, 4 titles would go to zero for the spurs

like I said, it doesn't matter, it happened and the spurs won the titles (could have easily won more). I respect that.

It isn't often in sports something that is 100% luck can be so important.

Duncan alone didn't win those titles. NY celebrated when they lucked into drafting Patrick Ewing and reenergizing the Knicks franchise. Didn't win a title. A lot of teams have stars and legendary players that don't win, especially win 4.

What would have happened if the Rockets had accepted the Blazers trade proposal of Ralph Sampson for Clyde + 2nd pick in the draft.

Hakeem + Clyde + Jordan., greatest what if in the NBA.

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My point is to show how small things out of your control can make a big difference. When it is a ping pong ball (as opposed to another team, an injury, a ref's call etc), it is even more amazing that a team's fate for over a decade is completely changed. We're not talking the outcome of a single game. We are talking a ~14 year run dictated by a ping pong ball. They would have been good without TD, but likely no titles.

the others are correct, TD is a spur, they won 4 titles, and if someone else's ball had come out, this would all be different. But it didn't so all we can do is look back and say how important this small random event was. sports are fun.

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Is your point that there should be no lottery or that the Spurs should give back their 4 trophies because of the insane scenario where they overcame impossible odds to win the lottery with only 21% probability?

The NBA system actually punishes you for being terrible. The worst team hasn't gotten the #1 pick in 8 years.

Looks like due to changes in the lottery over the years, only 4 teams ever won with BETTER odds than the Spurs had that year.

If Duncan ended up anywhere else, there's a good chance he probably would have left for Orlando anyway.

Silly thread

[This message has been edited by Phil Rirruto (edited 6/7/2012 12:19p).]

the spurs were lucky and good (good drafting, good coaching etc)

the knicks were lucky but not good in the other areas (bad coaching etc)

my point is how luck played an enormous role in the 4 titles. Not often pure luck decides fates of franchises for over a decade.

To a lesser degree, the coin flip in nfl overtime is pure luck and the winner of the flip more often wins the game. However, if your defense is great, your skill can overcome losing the flip. So the lottery luck is much more important there.

Another example is when the bucks won the coin flip and got kareem (alcinder). Without that luck, they wouldn't have won a title. If Kareem would have stayed (he requested the trade), they might have won more than one. Winning the flip was pure luck and essential to that title.

I never said anyone should give back any titles. Again, the spurs were very lucky (winning the lottery the year the best PF every comes out) and very good beyond the luck. I give them credit and props. I also contend that without the ping bong ball popping out, they would have 0 titles. It is what it is.

The Yakees and Lakers would be the only pro teams that wouldn't have to be "lucky" to win a championship.

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a ping pong ball is pure luck. It seems amazing that if they had opened the hopper a millisecond earlier, 4 titles would go to zero for the spurs

like I said, it doesn't matter,

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Clearly it does matter to you, otherwise you wouldn't have started a pointless thread over it. And you can't definitively say 4 titles go down to zero. Who says they would have taken Van Horn with the second pick? They still would have had Robinson, Elliot, and whoever their other pick was. They might have got better draft picks at other times. They might have had the money to lure another free agent without Duncan to go along with Parker and Giniboli the past 10 years. They might have done this, this might have happened, that might have happened, etc. This is too big of a what if to say they would have zero titles if they hadn't won that lottery. A team with Ginobili, Parker, and possibly another highly coveted free agent(or draft pick, since if Duncan wasn't there, they might have had higher picks), would have a chance a to win. You never know what the team looks like the past 15 years without Duncan.

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my point is how luck played an enormous role in the 4 titles

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Hasn't it played an important role in almost everyones titles? Why single out the spurs, you could make this point for a lot of teams.

What of they took Duncan, but he quit after 1 year to be a duck farmer?

To be fair, Dirk was the 9th or 10th pick overall. Totally different than the Duncan pick.

What does that have to with this thread? Or anything for that matter?

[This message has been edited by TheDino (edited 6/9/2012 7:08p).]

Read all of the responses and then get back to me bro.

I've read it. Just don't know what your Dirk comment has to do with it.