The best offense in the nba (Miami) averages 1.10 points per possession. If you are intentionally putting a player on the free throw line, then the expected value of their two free throws is just two times their free throw percentage. Brooks said Asik was 55% on the year and 58% on the series. Therefore, by fouling him, he was conceding 1.10 to 1.16 points per possession, on par or better than the best offense in the league.

I think it could makes sense another team is on a real run against you and you want to break their momentum , but that wasn't the case. It could make sense if a player was a 40% shooter or their was evidence they would crumble in the moment, but that wasn't the case. It could even make sense if you justhad a lot of ground to make up and too little time, but that wwasn't the case either.

Given that the Rockets have been absolutely horrific in late game possessions and have shown a proclivity to heave hopeless threes or turn the ball over, I just don't get it.

Oh and it could also kill a fiesty home crowd, but it actually just ended up muting their own home crowd!

Like they said in the post game show, they got the game down to 6pts. At that point they should have stopped but they didn't.

It slows the game down and gives you more time to make a comeback since the team with the lead can't run the clock down.

Agreed. Maybe a couple times to try to kill momentum, but that's it. However, another factor is that fouling Asik gives OKC more possessions as well. If they could have gotten hot and played above the 1.1 point/poss of the Rockets, then it could have paid off. That's an awfully big gamble though.

Scott Brooks is a moron is pretty much the answer.

As mentioned already when the game was 6 points they should have stopped. I have no problem with them doing the Hack-a-Guy and clearly we'll see the strategy again at some point. He outcoached himself by not stopping.

A couple times to break momentum is ok, and if the guy is missing all of them and your team is good at drawing up plays keep going. Asik was making them and the Thunder were not running good plays. They extended the game and killed the Rockets chance of making a big run, but they also killed their own chance of making a run and building momentum. Oh, and the Thunder had been playing fantastic defense (with a couple notable lapses). In the 4th their problem was scoring, not getting stops.

[This message has been edited by Ulrich (edited 5/2/2013 8:56a).]

They got it down to 6 by scoring on 3 straight possessions, not by what Asik did. In those 3 possessions he shot 3/6 if I remember correctly, which is an average offense

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Scott Brooks is a moron is pretty much the answer.

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Its an absolute joke of a strategy to use to a 58% free shooter like you said. Essentially Brooks told his team that the only way they can win this home game was to expect an aberration event in which Asik's percentages drop about 15%.

Desperation is a stinky cologne

58% by itself doesn't make it a terrible strategy. Yes, mathematically you need to be under 50-55% to make it a long term winning strategy, but if you just want to break momentum or lengthen the game it's still a good idea. Doing it with 6 minutes left when the Rockets couldn't score anyway was the bad part.

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In those 3 possessions he shot 3/6 if I remember correctly, which is an average offense

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Yes, but on average, those possessions probably took 3-4 seconds off the clock. An average Rockets possession is probably in the 15 second range, so the Thunder essentially extended the game another ~30 seconds.

The idea would've been ok, had they stopped when it got to 6. It was also not a bad idea if Brooks was looking to cool us down a bit. We shot lights out most of the game, and nobody but Durant could do ****. In reality, it didn't make much of a difference, because we had clearly gone to the hover around Durant and and dare the rest of their squad to make a bucket defense. Harden, Parsons and whoever else was guarding Sefalosha were cheating in the lane so much it forced Durant to shoot jumpers and clogged up offensive rebound opportunities for Ibaka. If they want to hack, Asik I'm all for it. It limits fast breaks, and forces OKC to play solely half court, which is complete garbage lately.

[This message has been edited by cgidd8 (edited 5/2/2013 1:45p).]

It doesn't even really rhyme! At least Hack-a-Shaq had a good beat and I could dance to it.

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It doesn't even really rhyme! At least Hack-a-Shaq had a good beat and I could dance to it.

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It doesn't rhyme, but a play on words with hacky sack works, you just have to say it fast.

Someone much more clever than me could make it work.

Are we factoring the one-and-one in? If you do, don't you wind up with:

.58+.58*.58= .9164?

what's the Houston points per possession average?

There's a 42 percent chance that he doesn't even get the second shot, and that's on a good night.

[This message has been edited by RolfFromDusseldorf (edited 5/2/2013 5:04p).]

... this isn't college basketball

^ damn.....

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Are we factoring the one-and-one in?

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