I did a little statistical analysis, and I was shocked to find that free throws in the NBA dramatically impacts whether a team wins or loses. That may not come as a shock to you, but the sheer weight of the impact did come as one to me. Here is what I found:

The league average is about 75% on free throws. If a team could manage to shoot 85%, then I have estimated that it would be worth an extra SIX WINS per season. I don't have the time to post my calculations at the moment, but I'll try to get to it later.

Is there any reason in the world that a professional basketball player, the best amongst all pros in the world, cannot consistently shoot free throws in the 80% to 90% range? I think it boils down to sheer laziness and a lack of expectations on the part of the coaches. Teams just seem to accept it with a ho-hum attitude.

Personally, I think that teams should start putting a major emphasis on making sure that the easiest shot in basketball is almost never missed.

[This message has been edited by Little Rock Ag (edited 5/29/2013 10:25a).]

Only a handful of people in the NBA can shoot 90% from the line. When you factor in fatigue and game situation it's slightly different than practice.

But I agree that 80% should be manageable for most players and should basically be a pre-req for anybody that plays 30+ minutes. D12 really needs to work on his FT shooting if he wants to be "the man".

I think some guys can't get to 80%, but most can. It will continue to be one of the "little things" that disciplined players and teams get right.

This is actually one of the reasons the Spurs have quietly gotten better. They used to have Duncan as a mediocre FT shooter in the 60s with most of the rest of the team in the '70s. Now Duncan is shooting in the '80s as is Parker. Manu has been very reliable after his first couple of years. It makes a huge difference especially in close games when closing things out or missing a few points determines things. For instance, Randolph struggling at the FT line really hurt Memphis when you consider they lost 2 of the 4 games in OT.

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I think some guys can't get to 80%, but most can. It will continue to be one of the "little things" that disciplined players and teams get right.

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Rick Barry says he can get anyone to shoot 85-90% from the line. But they have to shoot his underhanded granny style free throw.

It doesn't seem like anyone in the NBA is willing to swallow their pride and do it.

I think the thought that free throws should be a gimme is one of the worst offenses arm-chair quarterbacks are guilty of (the worst is people questioning athletes' injuries, but that's another thread).

I agree that the granny style might be a solution for the bigger guys who don't have the touch, it would make them more accurate and it would certainly land on the rim softer than some of the shotputs that get heaved up there.

But average joes usually go out and shoot 10 free throws in a row and make 6-8 no problem, and that's not anywhere near the same as shooting free throws throughout an NBA game. You lose rhythm and have to battle fatigue.

The terrible free throw shooters are awful because they are all big men (anyone that's bored should find the lowest FT% of SG, PG, & SF) it's by far the longest shot they take, and they don't have the skill developed for a shooting touch. I'm sure some could improve if they practiced, but the odds are heavily weighted against them becuase their body type leads them to be really bad at shooting. Of course there are anomalies, but in general once you're that big, it's hard to have a soft touch from anywhere outside of 10 feet.

I think the "big guys shooting poorly because they are physically less capable" is overrated, there are too many who shoot free throws well.

Switching between post play and jump shooting is difficult. You go from this contest of raw strength to a more finesse skill. Posting up is also exhausting. Perimeter players are used to taking jump shots when they are tired, so it's easier for them to remain in rhythm during the free throw. Post players don't have that absolute comfort with midrange shooting even when they are tired and out of rhythm.

It's also difficult to switch from jump shooting in the course of the game to set shooting. It's hard to explain why, it's just very different. The rhythm is gone. It seems easy but it's not; so much of being a good jump shooter is letting your body take over and just "do it" (within the context of thousands of practice shots to perfect form, of course), but free throw shooting is a lot more mechanical. Performing a mechanical motion to throw a 9.39" diameter ball through an 18" steel hoop 15 feet away and 10 feet off the ground is actually pretty tough.

[This message has been edited by Ulrich (edited 5/29/2013 11:57a).]

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I think the "big guys shooting poorly because they are physically less capable" is overrated, there are too many who shoot free throws well.

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Agreed. Sabonis was huge and hit 79% of his FTs. Kareem hit 72%. Dirk has hit 90% several times.

Yao was career 83% free throw shooter.

It's 90% mental. Much of the NBA is in the lower half on most mental scales.

I think you are asking a little much for all NBA guys to make 80%.

60%, yes. 70% maybe.

Standing in front of a crowd of 20K+ with everyone looking at you and 3-10 seconds to think about it is not as easy as it may seem.

AI would step back and over to the side to "give himself an excuse" to take away some of the pressure. He was a great shooter and struggled with it at some level.




[This message has been edited by BBDP (edited 5/29/2013 12:32p).]

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Agreed. Sabonis was huge and hit 79% of his FTs.

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Hell of a player. Would have loved to see him in the league pre-injury. That guy had Shaq-like size and athleticism with a sweet shot and unreal vision/passing ability. Even as a broke down old man playing in Portland he was really fun to watch.

Agree. Could have been the best center in the NBA during the age of great centers.

Imagine a player that moved like Hakeem, had 3-point range, could pass like Walton and was half a foot taller than Hakeem.

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Imagine a player that moved like Hakeem, had 3-point range, could pass like Walton and was half a foot taller than Hakeem.

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Cherokee Parks?

Erick Dampier?[/Erick Dampier]