I'm not a gambler, but I checked on finals odds. Looks like Heat are basically 2:1 favorites to win the series. Seems generous to me. Yes, the Heat have the best player (James), but the Spurs have the 2nd & 3rd best players out there (Parker/Duncan). Teams coming off a sweep vs. teams going to 7 games are 4-2 in finals. I see the series at 50/50.
Thoughts?

More Miami homers betting than Spurs homers.

flash over substance. they played twice this season and both games were jacked up. the spurs flew through the west. the heat survived the east. even without okc, the west is much better overall. hard to call.

I hope San Antonio wins, but I actually thought the odds would be steeper than that. Bovada has Miami -230. I was expecting Miami to be closer to -300.

Like I said, I hope San Antonio wins, but I see Miami taking the series. Indiana was a terrible matchup for the Heat because of Hibbert and West, and the athletic wings (Gearge and Stephenson) that could play D against James/Wade. Indiana did everything you need to do to beat the Heat: have solid post players who you can give it to continuously down low, offensive rebounding, athletic wings for defense...and they still lost to the Heat.

I think the Spurs would easily beat the Pacers in a series, but that doesn't mean they will fare better against the Heat. The Spurs are more of a pick and roll team and don't really pound it down low much anymore. The Heat excel at stopping the pick and roll, so I don't see the Spurs and Parker being able to put up huge numbers (do ya'll think Lebron will guard Parker some?...even if he doesn't the Heat "big men" will be very athletic and cause much more problems on pick and roll defense than Memphis (James, Battier, Andersen, Bosh, etc). It will be interesting to see if the Spurs try to feed Duncan/Splitter in the post a ton. They would obviously have an advantage, but this is not what the Spurs have done all season.

The Spurs don't usually pound it down low, but they can. When Parker was out/hobbled they did it a lot more, which is why Duncan averaged 25 and 12 for the month of March. If the pick and roll isn't working and/or the Heat try to put Battier or James on Duncan, Splitter, or Diaw, the Spurs will absolutely start working through the post.

I've read and/or listened to every pundit out there and it's about 90% Heat right now.

Some of these guys put a ton of analysis into it. Zack Lowe is my favorite. But he did pick the Grizzlies as well... so nobody is perfect.

It really seems like a ton of these guys changed their mind based on game 7 of the ECF. Apparently the Heat played really well and showed they can do that when they want to. That may be true. However, I thought the Pacers would have been swept by the Spurs. I know it was a "bad matchup" for the Heat but the Spurs are much, much better offensively.

I'm so excited to see this I almost can't stand it. I personally think the Heat are going to get exposed if the Spurs don't come in rusty as hell.

Odds makers looking at 2-3-2 set up probably and leaning towards the team with home court advantage. If the Spurs only win one game in Miami, they have to win 3 games in a row in San Antonio. The Heat haven't lost 2 in a row since late January I think, it is hard to think they will lose 3 in a row even if they are all in San Antonio. Otherwise the Spurs would have to win 2 of a possible 4 games in Miami, which looking at it big picture doesn't seem likely.

I always go on a rant about how unfair the 2-3-2 is for the lower seeded team. Having to win three in a row makes it really hard to keep your home court. The probability that teams of this level will lose three in a row, even if they are on the road, can't be very high. Of course I always complain about how unfair it is for the lower seeded team, but they've won the past two years...

Yup. 2-3-2 sucks for both teams

Very very rarely does the team with 3 straight home games win them. So don't count on SA doing so against a great road team in Miami

As said earlier, the Pacers were a terrible matchup for the Heat. Bosh was done offensively because of Hibbert. To me, the only question is the health of Wade. IMO, the -215 is a gift and you should take the Heat and be happy. I love betting series because it's easy to limit your risk by just betting the Spurs ML once they get back to Miami for 6/7 if you feel the spurs will take the series.....so in a reality you could "push" the series if you wanted.

Lebron is just too good.

I have no idea what will happen in this series because the Heat haven't played their best ball. Can they play better than they have so far? It doesn't help that the Heat and Spurs basically haven't played yet. The regular season result is meaningless, but it helps to see how different matchups work out, what lineups do, etc.

The Heat team up until game 7 of the Pacers series will win 1-2 games against the Spurs, and that only because Lebron says, "f*** everyone, I'm going to win tonight". The team from game 7 either wins outright or pushes it to 7 games. Miami is a little beat up. Everyone talks about how great the Pacers defense is, but the Spurs have been better over the course of the playoffs in points allowed, points per shot, and FG% defense. Duncan blocks more shots than Hibbert does while committing fewer fouls.

[This message has been edited by Ulrich (edited 6/6/2013 2:32p).]

RJ Bell ‏@RJinVegas 6s
#Spurs now favored in series -120 (with #Heat +100)

RJ Bell ‏@RJinVegas 19m
Game Two: #Heat -5.5 hosting #Spurs


I don't see the Spurs losing by 6. Maybe 5, but 6?

However, the fact that I feel that way probably means Heat win by 7.