So I was wondering, what game in a best of 7 is historically the best indicator of who will win the series?
Obviously game 7 is the very best, since whoever wins that wins it all by definition. But after that what comes next? The "pivotal" Game 5?
What about Game 1, where does that fall?

In NBA history:
1-0 wins 77.3%
2-0 wins 93.7%
3-0 wins 100%
2-1 wins 82.0%
3-1 wins 96.3%
3-2 wins 85.9%

By definition it's 50% any time the series is tied, so the jumps in winning percentage for winning tiebreakers are:

1-0 +27.3%; 3.4 to 1 favorite
2-1 +32.0%; 4.5 to 1 favorite
3-2 +35.9%; 6.1 to 1 favorite

If the Spurs go up 2-0, they will be 14.9 to 1 favorites (statistically) to win the series. Just like they were against OKC in 2012. Still, the oft-quoted wisdom that "nothing unexpected has happened yet, we just need to win our home games now" is pretty dumb. You're usually effed once you go down 2-0 because now you have to win 4 out of 5 against a team that was better in the regular season and just beat you twice in a row.

Note: I ignored home court advantage above. Here are the 1-0 and 2-0 numbers broken down for possible outcomes for this series:

In all 7-game NBA playoff series, if the home team is up 1-0 they have a 84.8% (5.6 to 1) probability of winning the series. In NBA Finals, the home team up 1-0 has a 78.0% (3.5 to 1) probability of winning the series.

In all 7-game NBA playoff series, if the home team is up 2-0 they have a 94.3% (16.5 to 1) probability of winning the series. In NBA Finals, the home team up 2-0 has a 89.3% (8.3 to 1) probability of winning the series.


All numbers are from whowins.com.

This does not get into how you got to that point, so I don't know whether a team that starts 0-2 and then wins 3 straight to go up 3-2 has the same chance as one that traded wins all the way to 3-2.

[This message has been edited by Ulrich (edited 6/8/2014 5:29p).]

nm

[This message has been edited by Ulrich (edited 6/8/2014 5:29p).]

Thanks for the info.

In the NBA Finals, when the home team has gone up 2-1 they have won 87.2% of the time.

In all NBA 7-game series, when the home team has gone up 2-1 they have won 88.6% of the time.

Weren't the Spurs up 2-1 last year?

Bayou Yes, but the Spurs weren't the home team last year.

The Spurs not only lost last year after being up 2-1, but also lost to OKC in the WCF in 2012 after being up 2-0 in 2012. This team has had two major collapses the last two years. You can argue they are either fatally flawed or battle tested and ready to not let it happen again.

One would hope after defying the odds so negatively the last two years, that percentages come back to normal and hold in this series.

I don't think the Spurs every completely dominated an opponent on the road, in either of those two collapses so Spurs fans should be very encouraged by last night's performance.

I think it would be tough to apply Finals history to this year since they changed the ohme/away format.

Spurs 82.0% home

I don't think stats matter much in this series since both teams are great on the road and both have experience coming back from deficits. The Spurs certainly have the edge now with only needing to win 2 out of 4 and with 2 games at home but this series could turn on a dime either direction.

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I don't think stats matter much in this series since both teams are great on the road and both have experience coming back from deficits. The Spurs certainly have the edge now with only needing to win 2 out of 4 and with 2 games at home but this series could turn on a dime either direction.

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This is why I am showing Finals stats. There aren't many Finals that don't feature two really good teams. It's tough to win 3 out of 4 against a team good enough to get to the Finals.

Am I the only one to whom it seems unfair that, after a resounding victory like that, the Spurs STILL have to win half the remaining games? lol

[This message has been edited by spaceman (edited 6/11/2014 1:51p).]

No NBA team has ever lost the series after leading the Finals 3 games to 1 (31-0).

There have been 145 NBA playoff series in which the home team has lead 3 to 1. In 143 of those series, the home team has gone on to win the series (98.6%).

I wonder how many of them do it in game 5?

54.5% in the finals (this is where the old 2-3-2 format probably really messed up the numbers), 73.1% in all series.

[This message has been edited by Ulrich (edited 6/13/2014 1:09a).]

Last team to win after being down 3-1 was the Suns over the Lakers in 2006. Suns had HCA and game 7 was the infamous one where Kobe refused to shoot the ball in the second half to prove the Lakers couldn't win without him.

The last time before that was in 2003 when 8th Seed Orlando led by TMac was up 3-1 against 1-seed Detroit. After game 4 and a 3-1 lead, TMac infamously said "It feels so great to finally get out of the first round."

Time before that was the 97 Eastern Semis between the Knicks and Heat. Worth Watching. Sage Rosenfels isn't the only QB to do a Helicopter. Charlie Ward did when PJ Brown threw him over a cameraman. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5C60dX7m89Y&t=3m09s Knicks had suspensions to several key players including Patrick Ewing and John Starks.

Before that was the Rockets-Suns in 95.

Then you have to jump back to 81 when the Celtics beat Dr. J in 7 after being down 3-1 enroute to Bird's first title.

That is every single 3-1 comeback to win in 7 since the beginning of the 3-point line (in my mind, the dividing line between ancient NBA and Modern NBA.)

Miami was just 22-19 on the road this year. Spurs were 32-9 at home.

I wish I had the margin of victory numbers. The 3 Spurs wins have been beatings; the Spurs have outscored Miami by 53 points in the series. 53 points divided by 4 games is 13.3 ppg.

Just looking at sweeps:

When Hakeem swept Shaq, +28

When Shaq swept Kidd, +37

In 89 when the Pistons swept the Lakers, +27

In 83, when the 76ers swept the Lakers, +40.

in 75, when the Warriors swept the Bullets, +16

In 71, when Milwaukee swept Baltimore, +49

In '59, when Boston swept Minneapolis, +41

I was thinking for making predictions about who wins and whether they do it in 5. Seems like a team that is averaging a double-digit win even if with one loss is more likely to close it in 5 than a team that has won by single digits and is barely winning the total points battle.

I'm sure Hollinger has some formula. He is big on the margin of victory being the best indicator over the long haul of how good a team is. When a team consistently wins by double digits and when they lose, it is close, they come up super, super big in his predictors.

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11 of the Spurs 15 playoff wins by 15 or more points.

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