Revisiting the Cliff Lee trade

4,700 Views | 28 Replies | Last: 11 yr ago by ORAggieFan
ORAggieFan
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Since I can only get interest in my Mariners if it involves the Rangers, figured I'd revisit this.

You Rangers fans have to be pretty happy so far. Lee performed well with the Rangers giving a a 3.2 WAR on 15 regular season starts and going 3-2 in the playoffs with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.42 FIP .

Lowe - been an average bullpen arm for the Rangers.

The M's received:
Smoak - still struggling to get it, shown some great signs but a lot more poor ones. Tough start this year but got AL offensive player of the week a few weeks ago. Played pretty much replacement level ball so far.

Bevean - Getting shelled as a starter and will never be a quality starter, at best a long reliever.

Lueke - Did a little in the bullpen for M's, traded in the offseason to Tampa for Jason who's been pretty solid as a backup C/DH.

Lawson - Traded to CLE for Laffey who did some in the bullpen for M's.

The big other note is that the Mariners turned down an offer from the Yankees for Montero. They later traded stud pitcher Pineda for him. If they made that trade originally they may have Montero and Pineda today (and who knows, maybe Pineda stays healthy...).


Overall not a trade that looks like it will haunt the Rangers. Really comes down to a Lee/Smoak trade as all other pieces pretty worthless (maybe a little upside to Jaso).
DallasAg 94
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quote:
The M's received:
Smoak - still struggling to get it, shown some great signs but a lot more poor ones. Tough start this year but got AL offensive player of the week a few weeks ago. Played pretty much replacement level ball so far.

"But he has such a pretty swing."

I never liked Smoak since they drafted him, and have been beaten like a mule, since voicing it. I was glad they sent him packing.

quote:

Bevean - Getting shelled as a starter and will never be a quality starter, at best a long reliever.

I've been mixed with him. Don't lose the fact he is 23. Note every pitcher is King Felix who can blow hitters away in MLB at 15.

quote:

Lueke - Did a little in the bullpen for M's, traded in the offseason to Tampa for Jason who's been pretty solid as a backup C/DH.

He was a stink ball upon arrival in Seattle... needed to go, regardless of performance.
ORAggieFan
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quote:
I've been mixed with him. Don't lose the fact he is 23. Note every pitcher is King Felix who can blow hitters away in MLB at 15.

He just has no MLB skills. He doesn't miss bats and can't get ground balls. He's just a placeholder for the M's and wouldn't be surprised if he's in the pen by the all star break.
Swabbie02
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AG
quote:
Bevean - Getting shelled as a starter and will never be a quality starter, at best a long reliever.



I agree with Dallas Ag Beavan has not been great since early may. He has been hit around this season there is no question about it. I still think he is a solid guy on a staff and could become a middle of the rotation guy. He is still very young and look no further then other in MLB that it took awhile to figure things out. He is a control pitcher who needs to pitch to contact so he need to come up with a pitch like a cutter or sinker he can get in on the hitters to induce ground balls. His SO/9 are around 4 which he might be able to eventually get above 5. His BB/9 is under 2 which is pretty solid. I still wish the Rangers had him but he wouldn't be in our rotation with the talent this team has so Seattle was is a good place for him.
DannyDuberstein
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AG
Yeah, I was considering this topic during the Rangers last trip to Seattle given quite a bit of time has now passed in order to better evaluate the young players they surrendered. Beyond Lee's stats, this team does not make it out of the first round in 2010 without him. Then, without the confidence of the 2010 WS run to bolster 2011, who knows what happens last year? Given the young guys sent to Sea are largely floundering, that trade was a huge win.

Also, one other item to consider with Smoak is that the longer it takes him to find it (if he ever does), the more "cheap" years he's burning toward arbitration and FA. So even if he pans out in the future, it may not do them a great deal of good if it's only 1-2 years before UFA. He's accumulating a lot of major league time without really performing.
mhayden
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Way too early to make a determination on Smoak yet - kid is 25 and will hit 25+ homeruns this year, so the power is there -- he just needs to get his K-rate under control.
ORAggieFan
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I agree it's early. The power actually wasn't there until a few weeks ago and there was a ton of concern around that.

He has major issues with hitting a breaking ball though, which contributes to the K rate.
TXAggie2011
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AG
quote:
Also, one other item to consider with Smoak is that the longer it takes him to find it (if he ever does), the more "cheap" years he's burning toward arbitration and FA. So even if he pans out in the future, it may not do them a great deal of good if it's only 1-2 years before UFA. He's accumulating a lot of major league time without really performing.


Right. The guy has a little pop, but its hard to see him long term in Seattle.

How many of the league's better first baseman struggled anywhere near as badly at this point in their career? Very, very, very few, if any at all? You tend to get run over by someone else if you don't "have it" out of the gate as a first baseman.
DannyDuberstein
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AG
He's definitely all or nothing. Outside of his 10 HR's, he only has 3 other extra base hits this year in nearly 250 AB's. That .280ish OBP and a K rate that may approach 150 for the year (accelerating vs. his first 2 years) are tough to stomach for a guy working on his 3rd year of major league service.

[This message has been edited by DannyDuberstein (edited 6/11/2012 4:09p).]
DallasAg 94
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I have a puzzle for you...

Match these pair the correct character with the characteristics:

Chris Davis
Justin Smoak


DOB: March 17, 1986
DOB: December 5, 1986

.230\10HR
.298\10HR

Run out of Arlington as someone who will never make it in MLB
Has a beautiful swing, and it is just too early to tell
TXAggie2011
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AG
Smoak's swing isn't absolutely fugly, it just takes longer than it takes Bengie Molina to get from 1st to 3rd.
DeangeloVickers
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AG
i don't care if smoak becomes an all star for 10 years. i will always be glad we did the trade as it helped win right then....first world series trip for the organization
friend of cheese
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^
'
Every last word of that.
HirschfeldAg
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Yup CD just needed some more time...looks like hes doing well with the al east rangers....his defense alone should have keppt him in texas...and he always hitaround .250...& ground into fewer dps than mitch
ORAggieFan
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For those that don't follow closely, Bevean was sent to AAA yesterday.
DallasAg 94
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Thanks... I think that will be good for him...
TXAggie2011
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AG
And Smoak with 9 strikeouts and 0 extra base hits since June 2.
njohn87
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AG
quote:
Revisiting the Cliff Lee trade


Okay, let me just look something up on wikipedia...
















Yep, still 2010 AL Champs. Trade: successful. Even if Justin Smoak is the next Jim Thome, it's hard to argue that trade wasn't worth it, given what that WS appearance meant to the franchise.

[This message has been edited by njohn87 (edited 6/15/2012 3:39a).]
TXAggie2011
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AG


[This message has been edited by TXAggie2011 (edited 6/15/2012 3:41a).]
ORAggieFan
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Just read that Smoak is the worst hitting 1B under the age of 25 in the last 30 years with at least 1000 PAs. Chris Davis is 2nd worst.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=1000&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=1982&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,25&players=0&sort=17,a
ORAggieFan
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Smoak optioned to AAA.
TXAggie2011
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AG
Yikes!

Any word on his replacement?
ORAggieFan
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Mike Carp coming up after rehab will take his place.
Vinny
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Hey M's. We also have Moreland. Any interest in a trade that can net us King Felix? Looks like you need a first baseman.
TMACsDaMan
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Who would have thunk it...Mitch Moreland>>Chris Davis>>>>>Justin Smoak

It's a cripple fight but a cripple fight the Rangers have won out on
ORAggieFan
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Smoak making things difficult. Sent down to AAA, works on shortening swing. Called up too early due to injury, little above average for a couple weeks, now arguably the best hitter in baseball in Sept.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=9&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

Guessing they don't just give him the starting job, but he now has more of a chance to earn it. He also has an option left if needed.
ORAggieFan
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Smoak claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays....
DallasAg 94
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Where he'll get traded to the Rangers and put AS #s.
DannyDuberstein
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AG
Beavan got released a few months ago, right?
ORAggieFan
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quote:
Beavan got released a few months ago, right?
No, he's on the 40 man, but will be gone before the season starts.
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