Is Nolan done?

Who are you rooting for during the postseason? Braves for me.

Cardinals because of Michael Wacha.

Gig Em Wacha.

The winner of the Cards/Pirates series is who I want to win it all

Pirates or Dodgers.

And I think there's a better chance of Nolan being gone than being back in his seat April 1. Jackie Moore's comment was telling.

Rooting for the Pirates.

And I'm thinking 75% chance Nolan exits this offseason. I think the only reason he stays is if there is nothing compelling to exit to. I don't see him going to Houston because I think he wants to let his son do his thing vs. casting a shadow over his son the day he shows up. He's getting up there in years, so maybe he'll just be content to keep his ownership interest and be largely a figurehead here. I don't think that's really what he wants, but he may decide to live with it.

[This message has been edited by DannyDuberstein (edited 10/3/2013 12:52p).]

What changes would you like to see, no matter how illogical or inconsequential...

Home uniforms that say Rangers.
Home unis with red letters if they're going to wear red caps.
Kinsler in the OF
Bring back Lewin

Rooting for the Red Sox because I put money on them and the Rangers back in February.

Rooting for Rangers.

Rooting for Dodgers.

Nolan is likely gone.

Mike Maddux appears to be interested in Cubs... if so, he is likely gone.

If Mike Maddux leaves, there is a good chance Greg leaves (if he hasn't already).

Appears we'll likely make a qualifying offer for Cruz, and I suspect he'll take the 1 yr deal.

Should be a crazy crazy offseason.

The thought of a staff with Wash but no Maddux turns my stomach.

That was my biggest fear the last few months -- not that the 2013 Rangers would stumble and miss the playoffs, but that the 2014 Rangers weren't going to be any better without some MAJOR work, with many of the pieces just not out there.

I don't see Cruz taking a 1-year deal here. He's an all-star slugger, even with the question marks as long as there's no health concerns someone will offer him 2-3 years -- and if he was happy just taking a 1 year deal with the Rangers I think he would have fought the suspension.

So you've got a rotation of Darvish/Holland/Perez and then the hopes that Harrison and Ogando can be and stay healthy.

Then a lineup that upgrades from Murphy -> Rios, but that still doesn't make it anything more than really average.

And you've got a GM that, when he's not busy dealing with front office power struggle, has said that payroll isn't going to change much if any from 2013.

Yeah. :|

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That was my biggest fear the last few months -- not that the 2013 Rangers would stumble and miss the playoffs, but that the 2014 Rangers weren't going to be any better without some MAJOR work, with many of the pieces just not out there.

And you've got a GM that, when he's not busy dealing with front office power struggle, has said that payroll isn't going to change much if any from 2013.

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That's baseball in this day and age. No more 1950s Yankees, what we consider to be the best managed franchises out there miss the playoffs from time to time- see St. Louis a few years ago missing them twice in a row with a losing record to boot.

The good news is if the payroll doesn't change much, they'll be spending about 30-40 million (125 million---> 87 million).

91 win team with Moreland sputtering at first? 91 win team with Murphy sputtering in left? 91 win team with sputtering players galore down the middle of the park?

Life could be worse, they don't need to hit on a bunch of All-Stars. Just find some reasonable run producers and they'll have a chance.

This is going to be a good test for the front office to see if they can navigate a free agent sea of talented question marks.

[This message has been edited by TXAggie2011 (edited 10/4/2013 5:51p).]

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That's baseball in this day and age. No more 1950s Yankees, what we consider to be the best managed franchises out there miss the playoffs from time to time- see St. Louis a few years ago missing them twice in a row with a losing record to boot.

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That doesn't change that a window exists, even for well managed teams. Prospects and trades will falter and free agency signings will go bust and a team will have to recover from that.

So when a window does exist -- like the one Texas is currently in -- missing the playoffs is a bit more significant... Especially when, unlike St. Louis, Texas didn't land a World Series ring in the window thus far.

Texas had a window with arguably one of the best hitters in baseball hitting with a great supporting cast. They didn't get it done. Texas now has arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball for probably 3 more years with their best hitter signed through those years as well (though he may very well be limping to the end of that contract).

It's much like this year with A&M and Manziel. A&M has positioned themselves to be competitive for a while, but there will be some lulls... So when seasons like 2013 where a lot of things aligned (Manziel, the schedule, etc...), it's a bit more painful to not get the job done.

I'd pay more than a little money to have been a fly on the wall in that meeting. Love seeing Nolan fired up.

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That doesn't change that a window exists, even for well managed teams. Prospects and trades will falter and free agency signings will go bust and a team will have to recover from that.

Texas had a window with arguably one of the best hitters in baseball hitting with a great supporting cast. They didn't get it done.

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Two world series championships, the "classic" #1 wild card birth ("cheapened" by circumstance, but it doesn't make the achievement any less)...they've jumped through the window with drink in tow, and barely spilt anything.

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Especially when, unlike St. Louis, Texas didn't land a World Series ring in the window thus far.

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It took Tony and his Cards about a decade and fanagaling their way into the playoffs with 83 wins to finally get their ring.


Anyways, I wasn't trying to say it wasn't or shouldn't have been painful- it was and should have been. Only that a "lull" inevitable, and they're "lull" is pretty tame.

[This message has been edited by TXAggie2011 (edited 10/5/2013 2:38a).]

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Two world series championships, the "classic" #1 wild card birth ("cheapened" by circumstance, but it doesn't make the achievement any less)...they've jumped through the window with drink in tow, and barely spilt anything.

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I'm talking about a window to win what every team aims to win -- a World Series.

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Anyways, I wasn't trying to say it wasn't or shouldn't have been painful- it was and should have been. Only that a "lull" inevitable, and they're "lull" is pretty tame.

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I don't consider 2012 and 2013 a "lull"... The pieces were there in both years, so it's still considered the "window".

The "lull" happens when a team suddenly doesn't have the stud pitcher/hitter and the complementary pieces around them.

The Angels big contacts have as a whole been a failure -- but if you asked what the odds are that the Angels put it together in one of the next three years and win the division? I'd say it's pretty high.

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I'm talking about a window to win what every team aims to win -- a World Series.

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Good. We've been talking about the same window.

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I don't consider 2012 and 2013 a "lull"... The pieces were there in both years, so it's still considered the "window".

The "lull" happens when a team suddenly doesn't have the stud pitcher/hitter and the complementary pieces around them.

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I didn't say they weren't still in the "window." They certainly are.

(Although I daresay the Rangers have lost some significant players since the World Series appearances- you were telling everyone that they didn't get close to replacing Hamilton and Napoli and then Cruz, after all.)

Whatever you want to call it- I call missing the playoffs due to some uneven performance a lull (within the window, if you must), I think that was mostly due to a lack of depth on the roster, although they could use another big run producer, I'm hopeful they've found something close in Rios- I'll reiterate again that my point was still the team is still in pretty good shape and even though its a difficult free agent market, they'll have a chance with if they make the "correct" signings from the pool that is there.

I agree that they need to make some changes, but I think don't they need to perform any major makeovers.

It was inevitable that they'd have to roll out a lineup that underperformed or just didn't have high enough a ceiling, but I'm happy this lull, stumble, whatever you call is so tame compared to what some other clubs, such as the aforementioned Cardinals, have had to navigate when they were within their "window."

I am glad you're starting to recognize not every piece you need is there to be had.

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...the 2014 Rangers weren't going to be any better without some MAJOR work, with many of the pieces just not out there

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[This message has been edited by TXAggie2011 (edited 10/6/2013 11:58a).]

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The Angels big contacts have as a whole been a failure -- but if you asked what the odds are that the Angels put it together in one of the next three years and win the division? I'd say it's pretty high.

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Its a shame for them that they've had to spend so much more money just to get a window to win the division.

You're missing the point.

A team's window to potentially win a ring doesn't stay open forever unless they spend tons of money like your Yankees and Red Sox (and even then that window may not stay open for long -- reference the Yankees).

Texas had one of the top hitters in baseball in 2010/2011 and couldn't seal the deal. In 2013 they had one of the best pitchers in baseball and didn't even make the playoffs. Their farm system, while once the top in baseball is not near as top heavy as it was, and their major league roster is off now back-to-back "playoff" misses. Kinsler's performance is declining, Beltre's knees aren't getting any younger, Cruz is likely gone.

And you've got 3 years left of Darvish.

At least one of those 3 years the Angels are finally going to figure it out and win the division.

That's not to say that Texas will never be competitive again or is about to fall back into the dark days... Nor does it mean you have to have year-after-year success to make a deep playoff run -- but unless there's another "top hitter in baseball" or "top pitcher in baseball" about to ink with Texas, this current window is coming to a close shortly.

TLDR Version: WS caliber squad, top farm system in baseball -- didn't get it done. Now not a WS caliber squad and not a top farm system in baseball, with very little out there in free agency that will immediately turn the ship.

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You're missing the point.

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You continue on to state what I've already said, so perhaps I do understand you're afraid the Rangers have been and are blowing it.

Back to my point, 2014...

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TLDR Version: WS caliber squad, top farm system in baseball -- didn't get it done. Now not a WS caliber squad and not a top farm system in baseball, with very little out there in free agency that will immediately turn the ship.

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91 win squad with some very blatantly identifiable holes/underperformances. 91 wins, that's more wins than they had when they made their first World Series.

Well aware of aging players, some understandably declining performances, well aware Cruz may be gone. They also had some blatantly identifiable holes and some growing youngsters. I don't reasonably believe all the old guys will suddenly drop off, nor do I reasonably believe a good front office or some of the talented youngsters (read: Elvis) will run out and outfield full of sub .700 OPS, a DH with a .700 OPS, a SS with a sub .700 OPS, a SP with a 6.5 ERA, etc...

I don't think the club needs major work. They really just need to avoid the black holes- a win or two more and they're in their playing for the wildcard birth to the ALDS- 4 of the last 11 World Series have been won by wildcards. Nnow that we've addressed one of our outfield questions, this market, while arguably lacking in top talent, will give a prudent front office a chance to make some marked improvements to the Rangers, even if they can't get their hands on an All-Star this particular off-season.

As for Darvish walking in 3 years, or Beltre's leg breaking off at the knee...the club got their hands on Hamilton, they got their hands on Beltre, they got their hands on Cruz, they got their hands on Darvish, they got their hands on Napoli...

I see no reason to believe they won't have opportunities over the next few years to add big players to the roster.

As for now, as for my point, I'm not afraid. I think the club is in a good spot, it doesn't need an overhaul. The test will be picking out the right pieces from a muddy free agent pool.

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Now not a WS caliber squad and not a top farm system in baseball, with very little out there in free agency that will immediately turn the ship.

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* Not a top farm system because Profar and Perez have reached The Show. They are unestablished but if Perez lives up to the hype of even sniffing Johana Santana... and if Profar lives up to the hype of being a long-time AS as SS\2B... then, we'll have added significant talent.

* Not a WS caliber squad, as most teams are not right after being eliminated from the playoffs. If Perez and Profar incrementally improve from 2013 to 2014... this team has only a few holes to fill.

They have many on this squad signed for many years, and most entering or at their prime years.

NEEDS:
- Improve at 1st
- Improve at 5th SP
- Add a Big Bat in the OF
- Add a Big Bat DH
- Add a Big Bat C


Worst case scenario we do nothing in the Offseason:
We suck with Moreland
We slide Tepesch in with Darvish\Holland\Ogando\Perez; or Harrison
We suck with Engle Beltre\Leonys\ Rios
We suck at DH and sign a nobody
We suck go with Jorge Alfaro (20 yo played at A ball) and sign Teagarden\Salty\Scrub.

If we did nothing... I could see us as 80-85 Ws.

Best case scenario:
We sign Jose Abreu (1B out of Cuba) for $8M/yr and he rocks.
We re-sign AJP ($8M).
Nathan stays in the BP ($7.5M).
We sign Morneau to DH ($4-5M)...
We trade Kinsler\ Moreland \ Gentry \ Feliz
We package 2-3 players for an OF trade.

Expectation is the Payroll will likely be flat if not lower in 2014. Right now we've dropped from $125M to $87M. That's $38M, take $10-15M for Serfs and Arbs.
We have $23-28M.
Abreu ($8M)+ AJP ($8M) + Nathan ($7.5M) + Morneau ($4M) = $27.5M.

I don't think Kinsler will approve being moved to 1B or OF. I believe he will publicly say he is willing, but privately he will balk, and privately they will agree to getting him traded, if possible.

Even if we don't get a significant player back... it will open some salary. Moreland and Gentry may not be the ideal pieces to get an ideal return... but I think moving them opens for better pieces. The key will be signing Abreu. If we can get him, I think it opens up some options and forces some players like Kinsler to either move to OF or leave.

tl ; dr version... We have a few holes, and while there isn't any serious pieces available to improve... we have some options and with a few good moves we'll be right at 90-95 Ws for 2014.

Our SP alone, if healthy... will be a HUGE improvement. They finished 7th in AL SP, and should be much better.

Replace Grimm's 17 GS @6.37 and you'll get 2-3 more Ws. Rangers were 10-7 in his GS.
Replace Limblom\Blackley\Wolf 11 GS @ like 6.10 ERA. They were 2-6, I'm too lazy to see what the Rangers were in the other 3 GS. Replacing them will likely net you 2-3 more Ws.
Those 28 games alone, Rangers could get 4-6 more Ws.
With some timely hitting, Darvish could have had another 5+ Ws.

So, I'm not so negative about 2014... should be fun.

good luck with thinking that you're getting abreu. it will be a bidding war

Yeah...

- The Rangers never win and sign International players.

- The Yankees get all the pickings and leave their scraps for others.

What clubs can we expect to see in bidding war for Abreu?

It might be easier to name teams that havn't been linked to him in some form or fashion.

I think the most meaningful thing I've heard is he worked out for Boston recently.

ATimes

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/international-notes-jose-abreu-bryan-de-la-cruz.html

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"Every team had someone" present at Jose Abreu's showcases on Monday and Tuesday, Baseball America's Ben Badler reports, but the Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Marlins and Giants had the largest presences. Badler reported a few days ago that the Rangers could be the favorites to sign Abreu, with the Red Sox, White Sox, Pirates and Nationals also strong contenders.

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So, while Token seems to think the Rangers don't have a chance in the bidding war with NYY, the NYY are not mentioned. I think they have plenty of issues trying to get their payroll in order and fill the 12-13 spots on their roster that they need.

Boston - Historically not big players in these situations. See Dice-K
Marlins - Really? Big spenders now?
Giants - Already have a deep 1B, and without a DH... they are probably more smoke and mirrors.

That leaves Texas, CHW and Nationals. It will certainly be interesting. There are a couple of Cuban players that have contact with him. Leonys Martin has been quoted about Abreu.

There was another Cuban... not sure if it was Cespedes or someone else, who claimed they had been childhood friends and he was trying to influence Abreu to join him.

Point is... Rangers have as good a chance as anyone.

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Marlins - Really? Big spenders now?

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Hey now. It's the offseason. The Marlins are always big spenders in the offseason...

I guess that was kinda my thinking that many of the big money teams are seemingly out. Yankees owe their 1st baseman over 50 million plus the have Cano and Granderson to deal with plus replacing Pettite and Rivera.
Dodgers have a 1st baseman. Do the Angels dare. Boston... Possibly. Phillies doubtful. Orioles have Davis. Washington we'll see. Cardinals.. Maybe but doesnt seem to be their style. Rangers could be trying a smokescreen by announcing payroll wont increase!

Jeff Baker DFA'd.

[This message has been edited by Gerg MarmaIard (edited 10/10/2013 8:42a).]

Gerg

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Jeff Baker DFA'd.

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That seemed weird. He is a FA after the season. Maybe that was their way of giving him unconditional release early?!

Let him shop around, so that he can test the market and if the Rangers were willing to match... they'd have (and he would have) an idea of what he was worth?!

according to LSB - it had to do with the Rangers needing a spot on the 40 for Matt West so he can join the AZ fall league. They get started this Tuesday and the Rangers want him in the rotation.

So Baker will refuse the assignment and be a FA three weeks early.

Player has to be active to compete in the AFL. Matt West was on the 60 day DL and the 40 man, so they needed the space on the 40 to activate him.

[This message has been edited by Disco Stu (edited 10/10/2013 11:59a).]

Rangers also out of the Abreu sweepstakes

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Life could be worse, they don't need to hit on a bunch of All-Stars. Just find some reasonable run producers and they'll have a chance.

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I completely agree with this.

The Rangers won 91 games, and missed the playoffs by a razor thin margin, in a year where they lost all their bats (and the one they kept got suspended).

It could be worse.

But we do have some holes to fill.

Our rotation has the potential to be great. But it also has a lot of question marks.

Who will close? Nathan was getting shaky towards the end of the year, and I'm not sure what else he has in the tank. He's a guy that's relied on his fast ball in the past, but had to rely on his off speed stuff more this year. Will he remain as the closer for the entire season?

What will our rotation be? Aside from Darvish, Holland and Perez, you have a few youngsters along with people who might or might not be healty. Lewis, Ogando, Harrison. Can Ogando be a starting pitcher, or is he best suited to come out of the bull pen?

What about Neftali? What will he be? Go back to the bull pen or a starting pitcher?

What are we going to do with the Profar situation? We have Kins locked up, and Elvis locked up, but then where does that leave Profar? I dont think we want to continually move him around like we did this year.

We have a lot of parts, and have done a good job in recent years of using guys where they're best suited. Hopefully we can do it again.


But all that to say....if our rotation can maintain where it's been, and perhaps improve a little.....and we can grab a couple bats, maybe we can get lucky and have another fun year.


[This message has been edited by AgGrad99 (edited 10/17/2013 4:33p).]

[This message has been edited by AgGrad99 (edited 10/17/2013 4:34p).]