anyone getting some of this action? I never bet on baseball cause who knows wtf's gonna happen in any game out of 46000 in a season, but I'm liking these sudden death game wagers, got in on Pirates -1.5(+165) in what I thought was a gimme all the way, and looking good on Rays -1.5(+145) right here

also went ahead and took Dodgers -1.5(+130) which I think is more of a diceroll, and considering Tigers -1.5(+140) with Scherzer on the mound

Run lines are probably the biggest sucker bets in all of sports wagering.

good luck

If you are going to say that, I hope you have some math and stats to back it up. I'm not saying they are or aren't a sucker bet, but it is ridiculous to just say they are without providing any type of proof or research.

Just to break it down in a very simple manner:

Let's use the Dodgers/Braves game. Dodgers are -150. Run line is Dodgers -1.5 +130.

If you bet this game 10 times betting 100 per game:

If Dodgers went 10-0, you would win 666 dollars if you bet moneyline every game.

Now, for the run line, here is what you would win depending on your record:

10-0 (all dodgers wins were by 2 runs or more): +1300
9-1 (1 Dodgers win was by 1 run):+1070
8-2 (2 Dodgers wins were by 1 run): +840
7-3 (3 Dodgers wins were by 1 run): +610
6-4 (4 Dodgers wins were by 1 run): +380

So, it looks like the run line is only a sucker bet if close to 30% of a team's wins are by 1 run. If less than 30% of a team's wins are by only 1 run, then you make more on the run line bet (see the profit for going 10-0, 9-1, and 8-2 above). When 30% of the wins are by 1 run, you make slightly less than you would if you had taken the moneyline every game.

Again, I don't know what the numbers are regarding what percentage of a team's wins are only by 1 run (and I'm guessing no one here does). But that percentage is necessary to determine if the run line bet is a sucker bet. To say that it's a sucker bet without knowing the percentage is basically pointless.

I would guess that the percentage of 1 run wins basically makes the sucker bet and the moneyline bet the exact same as far as expected value of the better....meaning neither is more of a sucker bet than the other.

I'll wait for mhayden.

There are rare situations where RL betting makes some sense, but it's unusual. Normally RL bets have way more juice on them especially as the teams are closer matched and the total is expected to be low.

It would seem to me that betting the RL would he better when you're betting on the road team, because when the road team goes ahead they can keep scoring but when the home team scores in the 9th or later to go ahead the game is over.

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I'll wait for mhayden.

There are rare situations where RL betting makes some sense, but it's unusual. Normally RL bets have way more juice on them especially as the teams are closer matched and the total is expected to be low.

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The line has moved on the Dodgers game, and the run line is currently +120 for Dodgers and -140 for Braves. That is the same juice as a regular nfl or nba game with both teams -110.

When the two teams are close to even and the total is low, this is factored into the line. The -1.5 run line when the teams are even and there are good pitchers will be much higher (+180, +200, etc) than when one team is far superior (run line could be -120, -140, etc).

I would have to see examples, but I don't see why this would affect the juice at all.

Again, not saying the run lines are smart plays. I honestly don't know because I haven't done the research/math. But I just hear people echo your earlier statement all the time, but they are always just repeating something they heard some guy say some time at some place.... I've never had anyone be able to explain to me exactly why a run line would be a sucker bet.

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It would seem to me that betting the RL would he better when you're betting on the road team, because when the road team goes ahead they can keep scoring but when the home team scores in the 9th or later to go ahead the game is over.

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I assume this would be factored into the lines. So, with everything being equal, a road team would be getting slightly worse odds for their -1.5 line than a home team team would for their -1.5 line. But it would be interesting to see the stats on how road run line favorites performed against home run line favorites.

3-0 so far gonna keep ridin it with Tigers -1.5(+140)


playoff games are always gettings > +100 on the run line for the favorite, so maybe I'm not understanding what you mean by way more juice

I'm not sure what he was talking about with more juice. It didn't make sense to me in the context of what he was saying.

But to answer your question, more juice means that the house (sportsbook) is taking more of your money over the long run. For example for a typical NFL or NBA game with a spread, both sides are -110, meaning you have to bet 110 to win 100. If there was more juice on the game, both sides would be -120, meaning you would have to bet 120 to win 100. As you can see, more juice will kill the player in the long run and greatly help the house.

So for the Dodgers game last night, it was +120, -140 on the run line. This is the same juice as -1110, -110. If there was higher juice on that game, it might have been +110, -150.