Scherzer

Darvish #2

Means one less year on Yu's contract if he manages to win one the next few years.

If he wins one he'll get an extension long before he can opt-out.

He'll probably get extended either way.

Yu Darvish ain't taking an extension.

Enjoy him while he's here -- there's little doubt he'll test free agency.

Darvish has greatly improved over the 2 seasons he has been in MLB, and is 26.

He is 2 years younger than Scherzer (28).

By all accounts, I think 27 is the age most MLB players really start to hit their stride... especially pitchers.

We should expect Darvish to spend the next 3 years of his contract, to finish in the Top 5-10 SP... likely Top 3-5 in Cy Young votes.

After 3 more years of Top 5 finishes in Cy Young votes, at 29 he'll deserve release from the contract and he will likely be one of the highest paid pitchers ever. At 29, he'll offer 4 more years of prime SP for anyone who can afford him. IMO, that may not be the Rangers. Likely not the Rangers.

Unless we win 2 WS during those 3 years.

We have a 3 year window to win a WS, IMO. His 2nd place finish should designate added urgency for Rangers fans.

Off the top of my head, King Felix, Hamels, and Weaver have all signed extensions over free agency in the past 2 or 3 years.

Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander each signed extensions not once, but twice with Toronto and Detroit, respectively.

I'd assume he's gone, and enjoy him. But at the same time, I wouldn't assume he's gone, and still enjoy him.

Why does everyone assume he is gone? I just don't get it. Yeah, he may test free agency but I am assuming that we have a shot to keep him.

quote:

---

I'd assume he's gone, and enjoy him. But at the same time, I wouldn't assume he's gone, and still enjoy him

---

lol wut?

quote:

---

Why does everyone assume he is gone? I just don't get it. Yeah, he may test free agency but I am assuming that we have a shot to keep him.

---

Because most assume that in free agency a New York or a Boston will moneywhip him.

Texas will be in the running, but my guess the front office will make him an offer on an extension, and when he passes that up they will start looking elsewhere.

There are a number of reasons I expect him to leave. First, we have 3 solid SPs signed for 2017 and 2018. Assuming we see the same level of performance as we've grown to expect... all 4 could be in the Top 12 in ERA for 2016. Pretend Perez is "mostly" Johan Santana.

Darvish: 2016

Harrison: 2018
Holland: 2018
Perez: 2020

Ogando: 2016 (Team Control)

Tepesch: 2018 (Team Control)
Ross: 2017 (Team Control) <- appears to be starting in Winter ball.

Luke Jackson (22) expected to appear in 2015. 2013 in AA.
Alec Asher (22) was in AA.

For 2017, Darvish could very well be a luxury for the Rangers. Especially if the Rangers have won a WS. IMO, the Rangers have 4 pitchers who can be Legit #1s in 2016. Luke Jackson has tremendous upside. Still a prospect... but tremendous upside.

IF Harrison, Holland and Perez keep pace with Darvish... even if slightly behind Darvish in performance... Darvish becomes a more important piece to other teams than he is to the Rangers. They'll be willing to pay him far more than the Rangers feel they would need to. Not just Boston or NYY... MANY teams. Philly, Anaheim, LAD... LOTs of teams may feel like they need to add him.

quote:

---

Especially if the Rangers have won a WS.

---

It might be an indication that they have a deep roster and they don't "need" Yu Darvish, but from a purely facial reading, I don't think it matters.

Whether you win the World Series or not, you do what you believe makes your club the most competitive. At the price required, Yu will either be the best move or he won't. And that doesn't change whether they win the World Series or not.

Is it the Mavericks situation that's put some folks on "if they win a championship..." alert? The Mavericks did what they did because they thought they could do better by almost immediately signing better player(s) than the one(s) they let go. It wasn't motivated by a "well, we won a championship, we can screw around for a bit" attitude.

quote:

---

F Harrison, Holland and Perez keep pace with Darvish... even if slightly behind Darvish in performance

---

If 3 of our starters all put up Cy Young worthy #'s?

Cmon Dallas...

I said keep pace... not equal. If they improve from 2013 to 2014, as much as Darvish improves from 2013 to 2014... that type of keep pace.

2013:
Darvish: 2.83 \ 1.07 -- #4 AL ERA (Age: 27)
Holland: 3.42 \ 1.29 -- #14 AL ERA (Age: 27)
Perez__: 3.62 \ 1.34 -- #19 AL ERA (Age: 22)
Harrisn: Did Not Pitch (Age: 28)

2012:
Darvish: 3.90\1.28 -- #19 AL ERA
Holland: 4.67\1.22 <Got sick for a month, never returned to full strength\weight>
Harrisn: 3.29\1.26 -- #7 AL ERA

2011:
Holland: 3.95\1.35 -- #24 AL ERA
Harrisn: 3.39\1.28 -- #15 AL ERA

Perez was far better in 2013, than Holland and Harrison were at his age.
Do you expect Perez to be Top 10 AL ERA in 2014?
If healthy... do you not project Harrison as a Top 10 AL ERA guy?
Holland had a 3.00 ERA through August. That would have finished 6th.

Would it surprise you to find the 4 of them ALL in the 2014 Top 15 AL ERA?

2011

Not it is from the historical perspective that when you win consistently players get expensive. When you win a WS... they get even more expensive and the players looking to reward themselves is pervasive.

A crappy player in the regular season can have a phenom playoff and will be rewarded by that short window of success.