quote:
Fangraphs has it as an early contender for worst signing of the offseason.
I respect a lot of what Dave Cameron writes, but he has a hatred for the Mariners front office (despite supposedly loving the Mariners) and writes as if he is the smartest person and everyone else is wrong.
The problem is, he links signings in a vacuum. He'd like a team with a $50 mil payroll if that payroll produces a better WAR/$ than one with a $100 mil payroll.
What people don't understand here is how awful the M's have been at DH. Last year they batted .190. And that really isn't all that different than the last few years. Additionally, they are DESPERATE for right handed power. And real power as you don't hit homers into the power alleys at Safeco w/o hitting it over 100 mph. That basically left Cruz or attempt 3 with Michael Morse.
I really don't care if years 3 and 4 are overpays. All I care about now is does this give them a chance at the playoffs. I think this gives them more than a one win upgrade over Hart/Morales they had at DH last year and they missed the playoffs by one win. They currently have the 2nd highest projected WAR of any roster. Obviously that changes, but they see a window with two elite players in their prime (Felix and Cano), two other very good all-stars (Seager and Iwakuma) and other solid role players and are taking it.
In the end, it's just not that much money today to care if it's bad. They've staggered the contracts so they will basically always have $15-$25 mil in sunken costs starting in a few years spread out over a period of time. But, many teams do that win and with today's contract it just isn't that big of a deal.