Per Keith Law on twitter. Possible vindication for the Astro's front office?
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Brady Aiken Shut Down After 12 Pitches
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Last: 10 yr ago by AggieGreg06
#InLunhowWeTrust
From mlbtraderumors
quote:
- The first outing for former Astros number one overall draft pick Brady Aiken at IMG Academy ended with concern, as John Manuel and Josh Norris of Baseball America report. Aiken had worked in the low-90s with his fastball, but left in the middle of the first inning after throwing a curveball. That pitch was clocked at about 7 mph lower than a prior hook thrown by the young lefty. One of the umpires tells BA that he overheard mention that the well-regarded amateur felt "a little bit of tightness." Needless to say, it is still far too early to speculate on Aiken's status, though it is worth noting that there has been chatter that he has not been fully healthy this winter. Per BA, scouts from every team but Houston were on hand to see watch Aiken, who figures to be one of the best prospects available again in this year's draft.
Meanwhile, Tyler Kolek is looking sharp for Florida. Coulda had a local boy in Hi A this year.
Had Tommy John surgery yesterday. Broke the news with this blog.
Jeff Luhnow = evil genius
Astros doctors need a big raise after this. Everyone blasted the front office and now they look to be geniuses.
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quote:
Astros doctors need a big raise after this. Everyone blasted the front office and now they look to be geniuses.
I'm holding my breath waiting for those media idiots that crucified the front office to issue apologies
Even ESPN doesn't know what this kid looks like...so they put a pic of Carlos Rodon up.
quote:
Astros doctors need a big raise after this. Everyone blasted the front office and now they look to be geniuses.
Agreed. I'm friends with some of the parties involved, they sure caught a lot of heat from folks that had no qualifications to be doing so.
There was a rumor that the surgery had some complications from a tweet from a Baseball America writer (later taken down).
Link to original tweet
Link to original tweet
IIRC one of their biggest concerns was not only the likelihood of surgery but that due to the size of the UCL that surgery and rehab would be much more complicated with many more unknowns.
He still offered the kid $5 million, right?
The Astros lowered their offer to the minimum offer required to be compensated with the second pick in 2015 if Aiken didn't sign. They pretty much decided they were better off with the second pick in 2015 than with Aiken. Aiken's agent got that message loud and clear, which is why they never responded to any of the Astros' raised offers, which were done to save face as the Astros were vilified in the media. I think that was the Astros' biggest mistake. They should have stuck to their lowered offer, but I think the fact that not signing Aiken also led to them not signing two other picks led to a knee jerk reaction. Because now they were screwing over three kids instead of just the one.
While no one wants to see the Astros proved right and see Aiken's career end before it ever begins, it is shedding light on why the Astros made the decision they made. If Volgelsong suffers an injury this year, too, then the Astros medical staff will be two for two. That's not something you really want to boast about, but after signing Crain and Albers last year to bolster the bullpen and getting nothing from either, the Astros probably feel good about avoiding history repeating itself.
While no one wants to see the Astros proved right and see Aiken's career end before it ever begins, it is shedding light on why the Astros made the decision they made. If Volgelsong suffers an injury this year, too, then the Astros medical staff will be two for two. That's not something you really want to boast about, but after signing Crain and Albers last year to bolster the bullpen and getting nothing from either, the Astros probably feel good about avoiding history repeating itself.
Just meant that $3.2mm would have sufficed to get the #2; coming back with the $5 could have undermined what seemed to be the plan. Sounds like you agree. But they did make the right call backing off the $6.5.
quote:Could they have raised their offer in an attempt they could still get him, so they could get the other 2 guys, as well?
Just meant that $3.2mm would have sufficed to get the #2; coming back with the $5 could have undermined what seemed to be the plan. Sounds like you agree. But they did make the right call backing off the $6.5.
If they really wanted Aiken and the other players, they could have come in at $5M to begin with and not drop it to the minimum. They had to have known that passing on signing Aiken, which they were essentially doing, meant missing out on the other two, as well. I think the increase was more to save face than anything else. The $5M offer apparently came just before the deadline. That was either a last ditch effort to sign him or they just wanted to give the appareance they were trying. I think the moment they reduced the offer and told Aiken of their concerns about his MRI, there was no chance he was signing with the Astros. Maybe if they had gone back up to the original offer, but I doubt it. Everything that came from the Aiken side made it seem like it was no longer about money at that point.
If the motivation of the $5 was to save face, that was moronic.
Agreed. The other possibility could be trying to avoid any penalties from the league. If they were actually trying to sign him, then they misplayed the entire situation badly.
Yeah, that's where they lost me. I never saw an issue with them backing off after the medical. It happens, and they were well within their right to do what they did. But at that point, i see it as an either/or. Go with the 40% and get the #2, or just accept the risk and stick with the original deal. I just don't get ****ing around at the last minute over $1.5 mill. he was worth the risk at $5 but not at $6.5????? Really?
If the kid had a little less pride and half a brain, he'd have $5mmnin the bank for his bum arm.
If the kid had a little less pride and half a brain, he'd have $5mmnin the bank for his bum arm.
quote:
If the kid had a little less pride and half a brain, he'd have $5mmnin the bank for his bum arm.
Huge gamble on his part. Especially if the MRI and Med opinion put him as likely a TJ candidate.
So, he could have had $5M in 2014, had his TJ paid for by Astros and started his Rule V (I assume).
Instead... best case - he'll get like $3M in 2015, (TJ paid for by Insurance) if everything looks good on his MRI.
Does the TJ get done by someone different if he is with the Astros?
Yes
His family has an insurance policy that pays if he can't play.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-mlb-draft-rankings-april-edition/
quote:
Aiken is a massive question mark at this point. ... There is persistent, consistent and detailed buzz coming from many sources that there is more to Aiken's injury than just a clean surgery like Erick Fedde, Jeff Hoffman or Lucas Giolito from recent years.
I won't repeat the specific rumors, but the worst versions of it say there are career-threatening issues at play, while others say it's merely an increased risk of further injury going forward. All 30 teams will get Aiken's medical before the draft, the details will likely leak to the media and the answers that no one has at this point will come out before decisions have to be made. Either these rumors are bunk and Aiken will go 7th-10th overall as some expect, or he'll get taken off a bunch of draft boards altogether and I'll be forced to rank him somewhere around 40, with no telling where he'll go or how much money he'll get. I decided to split the difference and put him him in between those two possible scenarios.
Who do you think the Astros will take this June?
Old article.
Something more recent
quote:
2. Astros (compensation for not signing 2014 No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken)
Callis: Matuella. Houston makes up for missing out on Aiken by grabbing the top pitcher in the 2015 Draft, as Matuella combines a mid-90s fastball, two tough breaking pitches and a 6-foot-7 frame.
Mayo: Rodgers. I'm basically flip-flopping with Jim here, as the Astros take the best player on the board, dreaming of a left side of an infield with Carlos Correa at third and Rodgers at shortstop.
quote:
5. Astros
Callis: Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia. No team has owned two of the top five selections, and Houston can use this one to get the front-line left-hander it hoped for in Aiken. Kirby has one of the best fastball/slider combinations in the college crop.
Mayo: Kirby. After taking Rodgers with their first selection, the Astros go the college pitching route to get the top southpaw from that group, excluding Aiken. Kirby has the chance to move fairly quickly and join Mark Appel in a future Houston rotation.
Something more recent
quote:
Draft#:2 *Nathan KirbyHt/Wt:6' 2"/185 lbs
Position: LHP
School: Virginia
quote:
Draft#:5Michael MatuellaHt/Wt:6' 7"/220 lbs
Position: RHP
School: Duke
Both Kirby and Matuella are hurt and have been falling. It's tough to guess what the astros will be doing, but I would be surprised if the astros took 2 pitchers in the first round after the aiken fiasco.
The astros apparently love rodgers, but he's thought to be #1 overall. Dansby Swanson is also someone the astros apparently like.
The astros apparently love rodgers, but he's thought to be #1 overall. Dansby Swanson is also someone the astros apparently like.
Kirby looked dominating last season. Haven't seen him this season.
I also read a rumor on John stickel's site that the Astros really like Daz Cameron. He would be interesting. He's had a bit of a fall from grace this year. He's still viewed as a good player by most, but not the once in a decade player he was hyped to be. I was listening to the scoutingbaseball podcast the other day and they were wondering if he's just gotten bored with high school baseball because he's been on the big stage so long.
What you can bet on is the Astros drafting two guys, or at least one, that they can sign under slot value in the first and using that money to sign other picks. The 'stros have a huge draft pool this year, likely having close to $11M on the two first rounders alone.
1. SS Dansby Swanson - I feel like he's the safest of the top 3 prospects
2. SS Brendan Rodgers
3. P Dillon Tate
4. OF Kyle Tucker (led State of Florida in HRs as a junior and has a .595 OBP as a senior)
5. OF Daz Cameron
6. P Ashe Russell (A&M signee)
I listed 6 for the first 5 picks because I don't see the Astros taking 2 shortstops if things fell that way.
My best guess is Dillon Tate at #2 over Swanson (assuming Rodgers goes #1) and Kyle Tucker or Daz Cameron at #5.
2. SS Brendan Rodgers
3. P Dillon Tate
4. OF Kyle Tucker (led State of Florida in HRs as a junior and has a .595 OBP as a senior)
5. OF Daz Cameron
6. P Ashe Russell (A&M signee)
I listed 6 for the first 5 picks because I don't see the Astros taking 2 shortstops if things fell that way.
My best guess is Dillon Tate at #2 over Swanson (assuming Rodgers goes #1) and Kyle Tucker or Daz Cameron at #5.
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