Billy Wagner is Hall of Fame Worthy

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Farmer1906
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11:25a, 12/2/23
AG


This is his 9th year on the ballot and he's ~7% away. I think he'll get in this year or at worst next. It's kind of ridiculous that it's taking this long.

I've made the case for him before, and below are a few others doing it.









And if guys like Jon Heyman thinks he's not worthy, then it only helps make his case.



Does anyone on the baseball board think otherwise? I'd love to hear a dissenting viewpoint.

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_lefraud_
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12:56p, 12/2/23
AG
He would be the only guy in that didn't pitch at least 1000 innings, or face at least 4000 hitters. He never lead the league in saves, never pitched in a WS.

Billy Wagner was a very good, but hardly great, especially compared to his peers. 7 all star appearances hurts his resume more than it helps.

It's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of very efficient.
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aggie813
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1:02p, 12/2/23
Definitely deserves to be in the HOF.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to _lefraud_ • 1:29p, 12/2/23
AG
_lefraud_ said:
He would be the only guy in that didn't pitch at least 1000 innings, or face at least 4000 hitters. He never lead the league in saves, never pitched in a WS.

Billy Wagner was a very good, but hardly great, especially compared to his peers. 7 all star appearances hurts his resume more than it helps.

It's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of very efficient.


Compared to his peers huh?

Why is his ERA, WHIP, BA against, FIP, K%, K-BB% better than pretty much all of his peers but Mariano?
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Wabs
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In reply to _lefraud_ • 1:55p, 12/2/23
AG
_lefraud_ said:
He would be the only guy in that didn't pitch at least 1000 innings, or face at least 4000 hitters. He never lead the league in saves, never pitched in a WS.

Billy Wagner was a very good, but hardly great, especially compared to his peers. 7 all star appearances hurts his resume more than it helps.

It's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of very efficient.


This was pretty much disproven when Harold Baines got in.
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_lefraud_
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:56p, 12/2/23
AG
Because he didn't pitch as many innings?

Are you good with letting these guys in?
- Francisco Rodriguez
- Jonathan Papelbon
- Joe Nathan
- Jose Mesa
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Farmer1906
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In reply to _lefraud_ • 2:03p, 12/2/23
AG
_lefraud_ said:
Because he didn't pitch as many innings?

Are you good with letting these guys in?
- Francisco Rodriguez
- Jonathan Papelbon
- Joe Nathan
- Jose Mesa


Potentially, some of them. But then again, Wags has better #s than them too.
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AggieEP
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11:59p, 12/2/23
The baseball Hall of Fame has always been weird, stat collecting is such a big part of getting in as well as winning.

As an example, if Trout never played again, derailed by injuries, you'd have a not insignificant number of voters make him wait to get in or potentially never vote for him because his counting stats would be weak, and he has no rings.

Think about that, one of the greatest ball players of all time, already 28th highest WAR of all time, and he wouldn't be a unanimous hall of famer.

When I look at Billy Wagner, he suffers from the lack of innings as well as the fact that he never had high leverage world series opportunities. He's a no doubt great player, maybe deserves to be in, but his case isn't a complete slam dunk.

I'd say, that if guys like Billy get in, then Michael Young should be in too. 7 time all star, 6 straight 200 hit seasons. They both have about the same WAR. (Mid 20s WAR)

It doesn't bother me for guys like this to get in, but for comparison, Scott Rolen and Larry Walker with a 70 WAR had to wait. Mariano Rivera, had a 56 WAR, so double that of Wagner. So Wagner doesn't really compare favorably to other recent inductees.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to AggieEP • 6:38a, 12/3/23
AG
You absolutely cannot compare the war of a reliever and position player. I could get the point if you think relievers aren't valuable and shouldn't get in at all. But once you start putting in guys like Smith then Wagner should be in if that's the bar. From 2000-2010 I'm not sure Michael Young is a top 50 player. Wagner has an argument for top 3 reliever of all time.
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PDEMDHC
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7:28a, 12/3/23
AG
Wagner is 12th on this list.

https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/amp/the_best_mlb_closers_of_all_time_092723/s1__38747256

See who above and below him that made it into the hall of fame.
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AgRyan04
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In reply to Wabs • 10:46a, 12/3/23
Wabs said:
_lefraud_ said:
He would be the only guy in that didn't pitch at least 1000 innings, or face at least 4000 hitters. He never lead the league in saves, never pitched in a WS.

Billy Wagner was a very good, but hardly great, especially compared to his peers. 7 all star appearances hurts his resume more than it helps.

It's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of very efficient.


This was pretty much disproven when Harold Baines got in.


Jack Morris and his enormous ERA and no Cy Youngs says hello
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AggieEP
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 4:56p, 12/3/23
While I understand what you are saying about not comparing relievers to position players for WAR, you seem to understand why I am doing it, proportionally relievers/closers are not as valuable as position players

It's just a fact over the course of the season.

Now, how we deal with this fact is up for debate. Do we want relievers in the Hall of Fame? If we do, what's the bar to hit to get in?

If Wagner is the bar, then as mentioned, there are probably 10 other retired closers that we should look at, and probably 5-7 active guys that would be hall worthy.

Remember, guys are usually relievers because either their stuff or control doesn't play over multiple trips through the lineup. They are talented, but they'd be starters if they were truly great pitchers.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to AggieEP • 5:08p, 12/3/23
AG
Wagner was moved for need. He was an excellent starter in the minors.

I was an anti reliever to the HOF at a time. But as you said if relievers are in (they are) then where is the bar? I'd argue they already let in multiple guys worse than Wagner. The bar has been set. Wags is an easy yes.
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South Platte
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10:53a, 12/4/23
Agree on BW. But Baseball HOF is nonsense. Way too hard for some of our favorite players to get in. Don't care about the steroid era. Roger Clemens not in the HOF should disqualify it from being a topic of conversation. Shut it down.
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AgRyan04
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In reply to South Platte • 11:26a, 12/4/23
I'm at the point where I don't care about the steroids guys getting in or not....but if they get in, just let it be after they die.

Same with Rose. I think he'll get in after he dies and his "lifetime" ban ends.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to AgRyan04 • 11:33a, 12/4/23
AG
AgRyan04 said:
I'm at the point where I don't care about the steroids guys getting in or not....but if they get in, just let it be after they die.

Same with Rose. I think he'll get in after he dies and his "lifetime" ban ends.
Shoeless Joe would like a word with you about how the HoF interprets the word "lifetime".
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AgRyan04
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 11:44a, 12/4/23
Fair point!
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South Platte
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In reply to AgRyan04 • 11:46a, 12/4/23
AgRyan04 said:
I'm at the point where I don't care about the steroids guys getting in or not....but if they get in, just let it be after they die.

Same with Rose. I think he'll get in after he dies and his "lifetime" ban ends.
Let them in now. When your product is more well-known about who doesn't get in over who does get in, you know you're doing it wrong.
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AgRyan04
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In reply to South Platte • 12:05p, 12/4/23
I think it's important, as a museum, for the history to be documented....but I don't think they deserve to benefit personally from it....or deserve the ego boost
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JDUB08AG
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5:16p, 12/4/23
AG
Heyman arguing against Wagner. Shocking.
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W
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In reply to AgRyan04 • 7:11p, 12/4/23
AG
I never thought of that

once a player dies...the lifetime ban should be over
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BMX Bandit
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5:59a, 12/5/23
Rose does not have a "lifetime ban"

He's "permanently ineligible".
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AgRyan04
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In reply to BMX Bandit • 7:11a, 12/5/23
Interesting!

I've always thought it was a lifetime ban but doing some quick googling, I am seeing it written both ways.

I'd be curious what the papers he signed with Giamatti officially said
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BMX Bandit
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In reply to AgRyan04 • 8:24a, 12/5/23
https://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/p_rosea.shtml

permanently ineligible
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safety guy
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2:47p, 12/9/23
AG
I'm not a huge Wagner guy. He was good and should be in the hall of really good. When the chips were down in the biggest games, he was not that great. His post season stats suck and he pitched a lot. His era in post season is over 10. It's not like a hitter who can be pitched around. He was brought in to get the biggest outs in the biggest games and failed most of the time. Not hall of fame worthy in my book. Astros finally won a playoff series after he left. But if he gets in, he gets in. More of a Harold Baines type for me. Really good. Not best of the best.
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to safety guy • 10:18p, 12/9/23
AG
safety guy said:
I'm not a huge Wagner guy. He was good and should be in the hall of really good. When the chips were down in the biggest games, he was not that great. His post season stats suck and he pitched a lot. His era in post season is over 10. It's not like a hitter who can be pitched around. He was brought in to get the biggest outs in the biggest games and failed most of the time. Not hall of fame worthy in my book. Astros finally won a playoff series after he left. But if he gets in, he gets in. More of a Harold Baines type for me. Really good. Not best of the best.


Brings up a question. How much should post season count towards HOF consideration? Kershaw has sucked. Bagwell sucked. Trout has barely played in any. Can playoff performance disqualify you? If so, can the absence of post season also disqualify you?

Brining in postseason opens the door for some wild subjective analysis.
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AgRyan04
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7:59a, 12/10/23
I don't factor it in at all.

I truly believe that through the 90s, in baseball, the postseason wasn't a big deal in terms of HOF. This is a recent mindset.

I think the rise in popularity of thr NFL and their "the only thing that matters is how many rings you have" mindset has shifted in to baseball.

The other part of that is the fact that nearly half the league now gets into the playoffs.

If you think about it, up until somehwere around 1970 there was just a two team World Series.....no LCS....no LDS....no Wild Card....no Wild Card round. So only two teams even played in "the playoffs" meaning that if you factored that in, most players who played in the Golden Era of the sport and earlier didn't even really have a chance at consideration.

But I can say that it is the primary reason Jack Morris got in.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to safety guy • 9:56a, 12/14/23
AG
safety guy said:
I'm not a huge Wagner guy. He was good and should be in the hall of really good. When the chips were down in the biggest games, he was not that great. His post season stats suck and he pitched a lot. His era in post season is over 10. It's not like a hitter who can be pitched around. He was brought in to get the biggest outs in the biggest games and failed most of the time. Not hall of fame worthy in my book. Astros finally won a playoff series after he left. But if he gets in, he gets in. More of a Harold Baines type for me. Really good. Not best of the best.
I agree his postseason sucked. But I am also not going to let a 14-game sample outweigh an 853 one.

There are plenty of big regular season moments.
  • 63% of his career games were in high-leverage
  • 59% were in save situations
  • 70% were Late & Close

I also don't get the hall of really good. He was great when it comes to relievers. You can slice it a bunch of different ways and Wagner is almost always near the top.

https://www.mlb.com/news/billy-wagner-hall-of-fame-case
Quote:
There are eight relievers in the Hall of Fame: Mariano Rivera, Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, Goose Gossage, Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter. How can we compare Wagner's Hall of Fame credentials to theirs?

Let's use their reliever JAWS score -- a number that combines those relievers' total career Wins Above Replacement, their seven-year peak WAR, their Win Probability Added and their performance in different leverage situations. It's essentially an all-in-one number to compare relievers throughout baseball history and establish a general Hall of Fame benchmark.

Wagner measures up to the Hall of Famers. He's the sixth-best closer of all-time by reliever JAWS -- and the only five relievers better than him are already in Cooperstown. That's Rivera, Eckersley, Wilhelm, Gossage and Hoffman. And Wagner's reliever JAWS score is well higher than Smith's, Fingers' and Sutter's.

In other words, Wagner was as valuable as a Hall of Fame reliever … so why shouldn't he be one?


Lowest ERA, Live Ball Era
Min. 750 innings pitched
1. Mariano Rivera: 2.21
2. Billy Wagner: 2.31
3. Kenley Jansen: 2.46
4. Clayton Kershaw: 2.48
5. (tie) Hoyt Wilhelm / Jacob deGrom: 2.52

Highest K/9 of all time
Min. 750 innings pitched
1. Kenley Jansen: 13.0
2. Billy Wagner: 11.9
3. Chris Sale: 11.1
4. (tie) Blake Snell / Robbie Ray: 11.0

Highest K% of all time
Min. 3,000 batters faced
1. Kenley Jansen: 36.4%
2. Billy Wagner: 33.2%
3. David Robertson: 32.1%
4. Jacob deGrom: 30.8%
5. Chris Sale: 30.6%

Notice that all those other pitchers are still active. Wagner is surrounded on the K% and K/9 leaderboards by present-day pitchers, who get to pitch in the highest-strikeout era of baseball history.

400-save club members
  • Mariano Rivera: 652 saves
  • Trevor Hoffman: 601 saves
  • Lee Smith: 478 saves
  • Francisco Rodrguez: 437 saves
  • John Franco: 424 saves
  • Billy Wagner: 422 saves
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W
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9:29a, 12/15/23
AG
I definitely agree that the expanded playoffs have placed more emphasis on a player's postseason career

and frankly...that seems appropriate for players of the current era...or last 20 years or so
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_lefraud_
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 6:57a, 12/18/23
AG
Now do these rankings with 1000 minimum innings pitched
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Farmer1906
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In reply to _lefraud_ • 7:09a, 12/18/23
AG
If you don't think he's pitched enough innings to qualify for a HOF then just say that. Wagner is 59th all-time in IP as a RP, 10th since he started in 1995. Only 41 pitchers have thrown 1000 IP as a RP and just 1 since 1995.

Jansen & Kimbrl are both entering their age 36 seasons. They have 813.2 & 757.1 innings pitched. Its very likely neither will make it to 1000 IP. Kimbrel won't even get to 900 IP. Are we just going to never let in another RP in based on this arbitrary #?
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_lefraud_
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 8:13a, 12/18/23
AG
I did say that, in my very first post on the thread.

We are taking baseball here, the HoF is all about "arbitrary numbers".

If you have to pull all these advance metrics to try and show how good a player was, was he really that good, much less Hall of Fame?
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Farmer1906
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In reply to _lefraud_ • 8:26a, 12/18/23
AG
There is nothing special about 1000 innings or 950 innings or 1050 innings. Yes, 1000, is arbitrary and never a traditional bar set the by the voters.

"Advanced" numbers tell you more than traditional counting #s. You can use pure counting #s like saves and strike outs too. He's near the top.
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Farmer1906
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10:07a, 12/27/23
AG
Looks like Wagner is going to be down to the wire. They may make him sweat it out next year, his final year on the ballot.

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JDUB08AG
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11:06a, 12/27/23
AG
MLB HOF voters are the most insufferable group of people on this planet.
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