It is a long ways out, but this is the GFS forecast for total accumulated snow through Christmas Eve, with most falling in the next week. If you are planning on driving through Raton Pass, be ready for less than ideal driving conditions.

Way too far out for any kind of call

mpl35 said:

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Way too far out for any kind of call

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As I noted. Just a heads up for folks to start paying attention if they need to be looking for safety gear for the drive that they dont already own. However, the heaviest is forecast for next week, so that is probably more likely to at least have some resemblance to reality.

No heads up for those of us driving through the flyover states. Not cool enough I guess.

AggieOO said:

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No heads up for those of us driving through the flyover states. Not cool enough I guess.

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Nope. Don't care about y'all at all. 5-6" of snow is just Tuesday for those people.

ccard257 said:

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txags92 said:

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If you are planning on driving through Raton Pass, be ready for less than ideal driving conditions.

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This wasn't a PSA for the Boy Scouts who have had everything packed and ready a week ago for a Christmas trip. It was meant for the people who would otherwise wake up the day before they were supposed to leave and say "l guess I better go check the weather for the drive…oh ***** Where can I get snow chains in Houston in the next 12 hours since Amazon won't get them here in time?"

Don't really need anything epic for traction control laws in CO to go into effect. If your headed to CO in the winter be ready!

No significant snow expected past Thursday for 10 days. You should be totally fine next week. Plus, it only takes them a day to clear most major roads. For instance, It snowed 23 inches in Vail and I still made it to DIA in 2 1/2 hours from BC.

Headed up colorado in little less than 2 weeks
What in your opinion is better driving option for the Colorado passes?
Ford F-250 4WD super duty truck or RWD full size SUV that weights about 5800 lbs ?

Aggie said:

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Headed up colorado in little less than 2 weeks
What in your opinion is better driving option for the Colorado passes?
Ford F-250 4WD super duty truck or RWD full size SUV that weights about 5800 lbs ?

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i would assume traction laws are going to be in effect and you will be required to have 4wd (or chains / other traction devices)

2wealfth Man said:

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Aggie said:

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Headed up colorado in little less than 2 weeks
What in your opinion is better driving option for the Colorado passes?
Ford F-250 4WD super duty truck or RWD full size SUV that weights about 5800 lbs ?

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i would assume traction laws are going to be in effect and you will be required to have 4wd (or chains / other traction devices)

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Really? I've driven to different ski resorts in colorado in past with non 4WD or chains ect..
asking about this particular stretch as have read 160 can be a dangerous road.

2wealfth Man said:

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Aggie said:

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Headed up colorado in little less than 2 weeks
What in your opinion is better driving option for the Colorado passes?
Ford F-250 4WD super duty truck or RWD full size SUV that weights about 5800 lbs ?

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i would assume traction laws are going to be in effect and you will be required to have 4wd (or chains / other traction devices)

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Simply having tires that have the mud + snow designation is good enough, and that's pretty damn common to have.
https://www.codot.gov/travel/winter-driving/tractionlaw

What weather app do yall use? Looking at Apple Weather on my phone and it says it's going to be in the 40s in Brsck/ Beaver Creek for the foreseeable future. Going skiing there for Christmas and really worried there isn't going to be snow. TIA

Check your tread depth. That's a fast way for a ticket. The police legit go through the parking lots and issue citations.

I don't see traction laws being in effect over the next 14 days outside of maybe Wednesday/Thursday. There's nothing in the extended forecast outside of those days.

Best weather app is OpenSnow

Yup. We got a lot this week (Breck hasn't gotten as much). It's one of those snow and then warm up years. Vail has way more snow than Breck. After Thursday, no snow expected for 10 days. That's gonna be brutal for Christmas.

For comparison: Breck 24 inch base and 6 inches over last 5 with 1 expected over the next 10

Vail: 40 inch base 20 over the last 5 and 1 expected over next 10

Snowmass: 37 inch base 12 over the last 5 and nothing expected next 10.

Steamboat: 33 inch base with 17 over the last 5 and 5 expected over the next 10

Next Saturday it's supposed to break freezing and stay above freezing for the daily highs for the next 5 days.

If that's true, Breck is going to be a nightmare at Xmas. Working with a base that's only 2ft deep with nothing expected through 10 and temps in the mid to high 30s is a recipe for a disaster. If that's true, the base will be potentially less than 2 for deep (I won't ski less than 30) and the only thing getting added is man made that won't be able to keep up with the melt at those above referenced temps. I'd be praying for a Christmas storm and even that probs won't be enough to push them where they usually are. They need multiple ft.

To put it into perspective, Breck's base is 53% lower than average that this point in the season and that numbers only likely to grow over the next 2 weeks. Not only do they have the least snow, they get the most skiers. That's a bad bad bad combo.

txags92 said:

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AggieOO said:

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No heads up for those of us driving through the flyover states. Not cool enough I guess.

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Nope. Don't care about y'all at all. 5-6" of snow is just Tuesday for those people.

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it is when you get up into MN, WI, and maybe Northern Iowa, but its not fun driving through in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri.

AggieOO said:

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txags92 said:

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AggieOO said:

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No heads up for those of us driving through the flyover states. Not cool enough I guess.

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Nope. Don't care about y'all at all. 5-6" of snow is just Tuesday for those people.

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it is when you get up into MN, WI, and maybe Northern Iowa, but its not fun driving through in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri.

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My brother and I drove overnight from Crested Butte, Colorado to Tulsa, Oklahoma through a giant ice storm one year. I had separated my shoulder on my last run down the slope and we hopped in the truck at around 3pm and drove across eastern Colorado, southern Kansas and Northern OK in the dark on iced over roads. We rolled into Tulsa at around 7am. As we were coming down the turnpike into Tulsa, the plows were going the opposite direction to start clearing roads. We had the defroster running full blast as hot as it would go and the windshield and wipers still kept icing up because the rain was freezing so fast. We had the moon roof on the truck open to let some cool air in because it was so hot inside the truck. It was a miserable and thoroughly terrifying ride.

txags92 said:

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It is a long ways out, but this is the GFS forecast for total accumulated snow through Christmas Eve, with most falling in the next week. If you are planning on driving through Raton Pass, be ready for less than ideal driving conditions.

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So you're saying it'll be snowin on Raton?

txags92 said:

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It is a long ways out, but this is the GFS forecast for total accumulated snow through Christmas Eve, with most falling in the next week. If you are planning on driving through Raton Pass, be ready for less than ideal driving conditions.

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Do you have an updated version of that? Bc seems like as of current projections there is going to be very little snow in Colorado on Christmas.

Depends on where in CO. Telluride/Durango should get good snow between now and 12/28. Summit County and Eagle will get snow but maybe 12-18 inches total.

Here's the CO accumulation prediction through 12/28 in cm. 12-18 inche's isn't going to do much for Summit Co.

Heavy snow starts 12/24 and carries through 12/27 for southwest CO

stoneca said:

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txags92 said:

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It is a long ways out, but this is the GFS forecast for total accumulated snow through Christmas Eve, with most falling in the next week. If you are planning on driving through Raton Pass, be ready for less than ideal driving conditions.

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Do you have an updated version of that? Bc seems like as of current projections there is going to be very little snow in Colorado on Christmas.

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This one goes through the 28th. Note that most of the snow in Northern NM showing on this is going to happen in the next 3-4 days, while most of the Colorado snow is much farther out towards Christmas (and therefore much less certain to actually happen).

Thank you, I'm not very good at reading maps, we're going to Beaver Creek and Breckenridge for Christmas, can you tell when most of the snow is projected to come in for those towns? Thanks so much for the help!

stoneca said:

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Thank you, I'm not very good at reading maps, we're going to Beaver Creek and Breckenridge for Christmas, can you tell when most of the snow is projected to come in for those towns? Thanks so much for the help!

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Keep in mind that the timeframe you are asking about is 10+ days out and these model runs will change wildly from run to run that far out. With that said, the most recent GFS run is showing maybe 2" from now until the 23rd, then 6-8" between the 23rd and the 28th in a series of small snowfalls over several days. As of now, no sign of any big storms on the horizon that would bring the feet of snow they need to catch up to where their base needs to be.

Nailed it. Telluride and Purgatory will be nice though.

ABQ news this morning predicts Raton Pass up to 8" of snow from Dec 13-15. Las Vegas New Mexico up to 15 possible

If so, I-25 will be a nightmare