Good buys now for long term hold

14,235 Views | 59 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by MTTANK
62strat
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AG
Recommendations on where to put $5k x 3 right now?

I just sold off a handful of mutual funds that have done decent in the last few years, but want to get a bit more aggressive and hopefully match the luck I had with with amzn, nflx and aapl which I bought back in 16/17.

Looking for long term hold, not just a quick buck.

Looking at travel, since it's all so discounted right now.. LUV, UA, MAR, AAL? All those are half off or more of Feb highs. Do most people think there is decent chance they'll come back in the long run?



I had this in the stock thread, but there's a post literally every minute there so it's already lost in the mix.
cisgenderedAggie
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I just started a position in WFC at $27. Close enough to bottom for me with a 7.5% yield

Will add more if it drops to new lows.
Gordon McKernan
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cisgenderedAggie said:

I just started a position in WFC at $27. Close enough to bottom for me with a 7.5% yield

Will add more if it drops to new lows.
I've been watching this as well.... What is your timeframe/exit strategy?
TecRecAg
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AG
I think casinos are a good place to go as well. Even the smaller ones are 1/5 to 1/7 of where they are normally. They aren't going away and, much like travel, when the lockdown lifts they are going to explode.
cisgenderedAggie
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As of today, forever/don't really have one. I like DRIPs over the long term, but I really need to develop some rationale for when to sell a long term position. In the past of taken basis after 200% gain and left the rest, but it means a rarely end up taking profits.
thirdcoast
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AG
Nothing but puts or inverse ETFs in coming days....then start going long weeks later.
62strat
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AG
TecRecAg said:

I think casinos are a good place to go as well. Even the smaller ones are 1/5 to 1/7 of where they are normally. They aren't going away and, much like travel, when the lockdown lifts they are going to explode.
I thought of this after I posted. Yes casinos based heavily in vegas you'd think are for sure going to be their former selves again at some point.

What's heavily on sale right now?
corndog04
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AG
TecRecAg said:

I think casinos are a good place to go as well. Even the smaller ones are 1/5 to 1/7 of where they are normally. They aren't going away and, much like travel, when the lockdown lifts they are going to explode.


I've been struggling with this and have maintained some short positions in airlines, cruise lines, and casinos. I have a really hard time seeing an explosion happening.

For casinos with piecemeal re-opening of the economy I'm sure they will be able to stop the bleeding some, but there is no way things are business as usual until a vaccine is available. I wish I really understood the various demographic components to Vegas's business, but I can't see the following returning to any significant fraction of normality in the foreseeable future:

-International travelers/whales
-Senior citizens
-Conference goers who wouldn't be making a Vegas trip otherwise
-Significant portion of millennial folks in it just as much or more for the nightlife as the gambling

So what's left to result in an explosion?
62strat
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AG
you said it though.. 'until a vaccine is available'

That's inevitable right? Every other pandemic in the history of man, we have a vaccine. (Well accept HIV, but that was never really a pandemic because of transmission type)

It seems impossible to believe that vegas would become a ghost town.
TecRecAg
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AG
OP referred to long term play. It may take until 2021 for a vaccine.. but you better bet that once it's available Vegas will go right back to where it was (+ more)
62strat
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AG
TecRecAg said:

OP referred to long term play.
exactly.. not looking for an explosion back to Feb prices in the next 6 months. Even if it takes 3 years, that's 100%+ in 3 years which I'll take all day.
corndog04
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AG
62strat said:

you said it though.. 'until a vaccine is available'

That's inevitable right? Every other pandemic in the history of man, we have a vaccine. (Well accept HIV, but that was never really a pandemic because of transmission type)

It seems impossible to believe that vegas would become a ghost town.


Yes, and long term there are probably some good deals here. I was more talking to the comment about explosion after lifting restrictions. I think there is going to be a long intermediate period with only a gradual transition between ghost town and boom town, and I think it will take casinos a lot longer to reach and exceed their previous highs than the broader market.
62strat
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AG
corndog04 said:

62strat said:

you said it though.. 'until a vaccine is available'

That's inevitable right? Every other pandemic in the history of man, we have a vaccine. (Well accept HIV, but that was never really a pandemic because of transmission type)

It seems impossible to believe that vegas would become a ghost town.


Yes, and long term there are probably some good deals here. I was more talking to the comment about explosion after lifting restrictions. I think there is going to be a long intermediate period with only a gradual transition between ghost town and boom town, and I think it will take casinos a lot longer to reach and exceed their previous highs than the broader market.
I can agree with that. That's why I'm thinking hotels and airlines are maybe a slightly quicker gain. I mean, even right now, they are at least still active and open.

Luv is at like a 6 year low.. so it wasn't just ramped up a bunch in the months leading to march. It's been $45 or more for like 3 years, and now at $30. I think I'm definitely throwing $5k at it.
MOCO9
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AG
I started buying RDS b shares in the 20s and bought more yesterday at 33. Full disclosure I'm not a financial planner or anything but that's one of the blue chips I see good long term value in. I have also been buying Starbucks.
TecRecAg
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AG
Sorry I skipped this. CNTY is one that I've been a fan of. Over the last couple of years it was between $8 and $10. I bought at $2.38. However, the big difference with this one is that just a couple of weeks ago they got approval sports betting licenses in Colorado and are pairing to get an app up and running. I can see this development pushing them over the $10 avg when they recover.

At $3.13 as of this message.
reedsterg
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AG
I have been looking at some airlines as well, but have some questions around the bailout. It's my understanding that airlines that have been bailed out in the past recovered at a slower rate than the rest of the market. I know a lot depends on the stipulations/control the govt puts on them, but would be interested to know if anyone has any additional insight on this or thoughts on the questions below.

1.) Would an airline bailout deter you from investing?
2.) Does the size of the bailout or the govt's equity stake make a difference?
3.) Would investing in a carrier (like SAVE) not receiving a bailout (or receiving a small enough amount that it doesn't have to be paid back) be a better option?
MallalieuAg
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AG
KMI, Dow
tam2002
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AG
I put 5k into RSDB today and as far as casinos go have a decent size position in WYNN and ERI. Bought 100 shares of CCL as a small lottery ticket. That's what I've done with the beaten down sectors
FrioAg 00
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AG
XOM at <$40 just seems crazy to me.

Prices of oil move around based on negotiated collusion between many many countries on the supply side. Several of whom really hate each other.

Demand for oil doesn't show any signs of slowing, ever. Certainly not in the next 50 years. We find new uses for the stuff every day.

Supply of alternatives is heavily subsidized and is still not competitive. I can't see it getting truly cost competitive in the next 10-20 years.

Most of 2019 oil averaged around $40, and XOM made enough profit to get to 12 PE (at current stock price). Do you really believe oil will average lower than that over the next 20 years? I personally think it will average $50 or higher over a very long term.

A PE ratio of 12 translates to an 8.3% return, even with zero growth. And they just borrowed 10b which tells me they are not going to hunker down and avoid growth.

This and MSFT are my two strongest buy and hold plays.
Hendrix
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AG
Double in three years? LUV, DOW, DAL. There's a few solar names I like if they drop again. I'd steer clear of cruise lines. I like RDS.B as well and was buying the low 20s. I took some profit there as I think oil is going lower and we'll see those levels again.
Old RV Ag
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AG
Mortuaries - massive deaths due to either the virus or suicides/starvation from the economic collapse.
george1992
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Here you go. Want to be up 40% by the end of the year? Look at:

TTD
SHOP
ROKU
LUV
RUBI
TDOC
OKTA
SDC
NFLX
FB
AMZN

These are all momentum stocks. As one takes off, instead of selling it, sell your loser and buy more of it. This made me a ton of dough in 2019.

But due to the collapse is oil I'm down a little over $1 mil. in 2020. Slowly climbing my way back up $1k at a time.
Grown Pear
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AG
Artificial Intelligence/Robotics
Jet Black
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george1992 said:

Here you go. Want to be up 40% by the end of the year? Look at:

TTD
SHOP
ROKU
LUV
RUBI
TDOC
OKTA
SDC
NFLX
FB
AMZN

These are all momentum stocks. As one takes off, instead of selling it, sell your loser and buy more of it. This made me a ton of dough in 2019.

But due to the collapse is oil I'm down a little over $1 mil. in 2020. Slowly climbing my way back up $1k at a time.


Tell me more about sdc.
Hudson2508
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AG
What stocks do you suggest for this market? Been eyeing BOTZ and ROBO.
Grown Pear
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AG
Hudson2508 said:

What stocks do you suggest for this market? Been eyeing BOTZ and ROBO.

Those two are by far the easiest and where I'm leaning myself. Do you prefer one over the other for a particular reason?

I just think it's the way of the future and a great long term investment. I'm unfamiliar with the underlying not well known companies.... but for those interested in really doing some due diligence a good starting place would be to look through BOTZ/ROBO's holdings.
nactownag
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AG
I have been studying on GD. I like their financials.
FrontPorchAg
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I live in Nevada and am active in politics here. Our governor is very resistant to reopening despite the push back from local Vegas politics. I have another thread on the topics. Even when we open I can't imagine it being a clean open, especially in light of the WH guidance today.

Additionally, Wynn who is heavy in Macau has t seen a return to the Asian Casinos yet.

I think Casinos are a good play but I don't think there is a rush to get into the space.

LVS and WYNN are who I am looking at.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
FrontPorchAg
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Wells Fargo is intriguing. >50% off the highs,7% dividend (though will likely get cut) and only ~2.5% exposure to oil

Amazon is good at this price, they aren't done growing and buying other companies. We are talking about a company that essentially paid cash for Whole Foods then made it more profitable.

Not a stock, but VUG. ETF is Large Cap Growth companies. Top ten holdings that make 45% MSFT, Apple, Amzn, GOOG, FB, V, MC, HD, Netflix, Comcast. I struggle with tech because while it sees great growth it can also be volatile and finicky. So I tend to go long ETF

Look at the Defense Contractors. Their is no shortage of demand and their clients always pay on time.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
cisgenderedAggie
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Why do you think WFC cuts the dividend?
Schall 02
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AG
DIS >>> casinos.
FrontPorchAg
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cisgenderedAggie said:

Why do you think WFC cuts the dividend?
Call it an educated hunch. Their exposure as I see it is 2% of their portfolio was in energy and they are the largest mortgage lender in the country by volume.

CNBC reported this week that nationwide we have already seen a 70% increase in forbearance requests. We are going to see massive defaults on home loans but those are still months away. WFC, moved $6B (IIRC) to offset those losses, but the question frankly should be "is that going to be enough". So they have decreased liquidity leading into long term losses all in a low-interest-rate environment. Dividend seems like low hanging fruit.

Now, compare that to JPM who is in a better financial situation. Jaime Dimon, who has a bit of a cult following, has said openly that JPMs dividend is not sacrosanct and will cut it if the financial situations get too hard.


ETA: JPM is canceling all HELOCs. I assume they are foreseeing a big downturn in home values.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
Got a Natty!
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AG
In 2009 I bought a lot of LVS and made a ton, thanks to TexAgs. I just don't feel as good about the casino stocks now as I did in 2009.

I am buying MSFT, ROKU, AMZN and AAPL.
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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Not a guru by any means but I simply cannot see BP (at $23.43) and JPM ($95.18) staying at those prices if you are truly in this thing for the long haul. Buy those 2 together and you'll be up at least 30% a year from now with very very little risk for the long term.
aggiegolf86
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AG
What about BA?
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