Bullwhip

1,470 Views | 2 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by htxag09
Albatross Necklace
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Burry says so

texagbeliever
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Interesting idea. The macros would make sense.

Overstock of goods -> decrease in demand forecasts.
Decrease in demand forecasts-> fewer goods ordered (supply chain relief).
As prices fall with overstocked goods and shipping costs dwindling that causes demand to surge.


Wrinkles: Oil prices have to fall but id claim that as an independent issue. Layoffs could crush demand further which would be an overstocked companies nightmare.
htxag09
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AG
I think everyone in supply chain, as I am, is pretty familiar with the bullwhip effect. However, I think one key component that this video ignores was the production delays.

Production delays were probably even a larger reason for the bullwhip effect than increased demand. Buyers need 5 widgets a month, but it's taking 3 months to get an order, so order 15. However, who knows what the wait will be in 3 months so lets just order 30. Some supply chains are catching up now and all this is the excess side of the bullwhip effect.

Why I think this is important is because for this to have an effect on inflation it has to pretty much span all industries. We saw these production delays in things like patio furniture at Target so they have a surplus. I don't think we really saw them with things like milk and eggs. Those are just increasing in price because the cost of goods are increasing. I don't really think, but could be wrong, we saw a crazy increase in demand or longer lead times in these supply chains.

These are just the thoughts of a supply chain professional that's not at all well versed in Economics, so I could very well be wrong. I just feel like on a macro level there are far more variables and different supply chains at play for the bullwhip effect to work that way.
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