Not 75 bps, not 100. We need 500. The Fed will admit to 9.1%, but we all know it's much higher. They have no control over inflation. There will be no soft landing.

Our options are to get ahead of this thing now and have a terrible correction, or continue raising rates a few basis points and chase inflation for a few years and have a potentially country-ending type of event happen at some point down the road.

I personally stand to make a lot more money with low interest rates, but this is the right thing to do for our country and our future, and it needs to be done sooner rather than later. The longer we wait, the worse it will be. To use Dr. Mark Dotzour's analogy, our country has had its face in the pile of cocaine for way too long. Time to go to rehab.

That would ensure the rise of socialism and the complete destruction of the United States. A more reasonable solution would be to stop voting for democrats whose sole desire is to make the population dependent on government for survival.

Red Pear Realty said:

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Not 75 bps, not 100. We need 500. The Fed will admit to 9.1%, but we all know it's much higher. They have no control over inflation. There will be no soft landing.

Our options are to get ahead of this thing now and have a terrible correction, or continue raising rates a few basis points and chase inflation for a few years and have a potentially country-ending type of event happen at some point down the road.

I personally stand to make a lot more money with low interest rates, but this is the right thing to do for our country and our future, and it needs to be done sooner rather than later. The longer we wait, the worse it will be. To use Dr. Mark Dotzour's analogy, our country has had its face in the pile of cocaine for way too long. Time to go to rehab.

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"has had its face in the pile of cocaine for way too long. Time to go to rehab"

is that you Hunter Biden?

Red Pear Realty said:

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Not 75 bps, not 100. We need 500. The Fed will admit to 9.1%, but we all know it's much higher. They have no control over inflation. There will be no soft landing.

Our options are to get ahead of this thing now and have a terrible correction, or continue raising rates a few basis points and chase inflation for a few years and have a potentially country-ending type of event happen at some point down the road.

I personally stand to make a lot more money with low interest rates, but this is the right thing to do for our country and our future, and it needs to be done sooner rather than later. The longer we wait, the worse it will be. To use Dr. Mark Dotzour's analogy, our country has had its face in the pile of cocaine for way too long. Time to go to rehab.

---

I'm not sure we have enough people around in a position to do anything that understand inflation (or economics for that matter) and how to combat it.

As of July 12, Goldman Sachs is saying inflation will moderate and ease by YE on its own. Also the same people that admitted they were surprised by inflation in the first place because they don't know what causes it.

Also the same people that have now redefined the definition of recession and that two quarters of negative GDP growth doesn't mean recession.

When a group like GS no longer understands inflation, then I'm not sure if anyone in government will.

YouBet said:

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I'm not sure we have enough people around in a position to do anything that understand inflation (or economics for that matter) and how to combat it.

As of July 12, Goldman Sachs is saying inflation will moderate and ease by YE on its own. Also the same people that admitted they were surprised by inflation in the first place because they don't know what causes it.

Also the same people that have now redefined the definition of recession and that two quarters of negative GDP growth doesn't mean recession.

When a group like GS no longer understands inflation, then I'm not sure if anyone in government will.

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It's not that they don't understand it, they get rich off of it.

Sims said:

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Hah, that's fair. Broken clocks and blind squirrels I guess

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I go back to an insightful interview I heard on CNBC several months ago. I do not recall the guy's name but he was making the point that few people in the financial industry understand inflation anymore because most of the people in these firms doing all the backend analysis and work are too young to have ever experienced it. They've never lived through it and have no idea what it looks like IRL.

And for whatever reason, the definition of inflation has been ignored by these firms or papered over (ha). I guess they just thought it was pure theory that couldn't happen?

I listened to Goldman in real time from 2020 up until now repeatedly scoff at it and find reasons as to why it wouldn't be a big deal and not once ever mention all the printing of money causing it. And then they launch 2022 guidance with the comment that inflation in 2021 was the biggest surprise of the year.

You have to be f'ing kidding me with that statement! I've been needling my advisor this whole time laughing at the idiocy of his parent firm and he just has to take it with failed smile.

Sims said:

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YouBet said:

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I'm not sure we have enough people around in a position to do anything that understand inflation (or economics for that matter) and how to combat it.

As of July 12, Goldman Sachs is saying inflation will moderate and ease by YE on its own. Also the same people that admitted they were surprised by inflation in the first place because they don't know what causes it.

Also the same people that have now redefined the definition of recession and that two quarters of negative GDP growth doesn't mean recession.

When a group like GS no longer understands inflation, then I'm not sure if anyone in government will.

---

It's not that they don't understand it, they get rich off of it.

---

BINGO!!

This feels different because so much of the inflation is being driven by fuel prices which are being driven up by the restrictions on Russian oil and gas.

Boosting interest rates isn't going to impact oil supplies.
Eventually they can hammer down the demand, but it feels like we're using a monetary tool to address a mostly non-monetary problem.

chris1515 said:

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This feels different because so much of the inflation is being driven by fuel prices which are being driven up by the restrictions on Russian oil and gas.

Boosting interest rates isn't going to impact oil supplies.
Eventually they can hammer down the demand, but it feels like we're using a monetary tool to address a mostly non-monetary problem.

---

except you seem to have bought into the propoganda of Biden. this is NOT because of a foreign war 6000 miles away which does not involve us.

inflation has been rising in parts of the economy for 27 straight months now.

gas prices were at all time highs before Putin invaded.

inflation has been rising since the month Joe Biden took office.

try again

chris1515 said:

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This feels different because so much of the inflation is being driven by fuel prices which are being driven up by the restrictions on Russian oil and gas.

Boosting interest rates isn't going to impact oil supplies.
Eventually they can hammer down the demand, but it feels like we're using a monetary tool to address a mostly non-monetary problem.

---

Pretty sure it's more related to the guy that said he would destroy the US O&G industry getting elected.

It's why Biden is going around the world trying to get OTHER people to produce more oil & gas.

Raising interest rates will absolutely wreck O&G demand and that will provide relief in pricing at the cost of world economy.

But hey, more people bought in to electric cars!

Quote:

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Not 75 bps, not 100. We need 500. The Fed will admit to 9.1%, but we all know it's much higher. They have no control over inflation. There will be no soft landing.

Our options are to get ahead of this thing now and have a terrible correction, or continue raising rates a few basis points and chase inflation for a few years and have a potentially country-ending type of event happen at some point down the road.

I personally stand to make a lot more money with low interest rates, but this is the right thing to do for our country and our future, and it needs to be done sooner rather than later. The longer we wait, the worse it will be. To use Dr. Mark Dotzour's analogy, our country has had its face in the pile of cocaine for way too long. Time to go to rehab.

---

I couldn't have said this any better myself. Gas prices didn't cause this inflation. Supply chain issues did not cause this inflation. Here is the said cocaine pile that caused this inflation:

M2 (M2SL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Unreal how some people can't understand how the # of dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services causes inflation. Goodness.

And for a lot of goods/services, the supply is lower because of covid shutdowns. Double whammy.

Inflation could be topping out. We need to destroy the economy because something we don't know is happening could happen?

TxAG#2011 said:

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Inflation could be topping out. We need to destroy the economy because something we don't know is happening could happen?

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What evidence do you have that inflation is slowing or about to top out? On the contrary, over the last two years, it's just gotten worse each month. I don't want to destroy the economy but more of what we've been doing absolutely will destroy us.

ToddyHill said:

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My first mortgage was a steal back in 1983...at 10.75% fixed. Had a co-worker who had the same exact house but in a different area of the Metroplex...and his mortgage was 14%. Back then, it seemed everyone was financing about $75,000 to $100,000, and property taxes were next to nothing. I imagine the next 12 months will be interesting and eye opening.

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My favorite part is that our property taxes are already hovering around $16K/year and that is based on the value we bought at. Well there's been several new homes built and bought this year around the $800K mark and they are fixing to have tax bills closer to $20K.

Then you add in the PID and the other higher bills. Who can afford that?

Red Pear Realty said:

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TxAG#2011 said:

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Inflation could be topping out. We need to destroy the economy because something we don't know is happening could happen?

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What evidence do you have that inflation is slowing or about to top out? On the contrary, over the last two years, it's just gotten worse each month. I don't want to destroy the economy but more of what we've been doing absolutely will destroy us.

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Lumber Prices


Steel



Copper



WTI

Zoom out all your graphs to a 10yr timespan and repost.

Bonfire97 said:

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Zoom out all your graphs to a 10yr timespan and repost.

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Wait, so are we talking about inflation over a 10 year span or the inflation that was most likely the impetus for this post?

The graphs I posted show obvious inflection points within the last three months. He asked for proof that inflation might have topped. That seems pretty pertinent.

I don't disagree that monetary inflation is debilitating and essentially taxation without representation.

Bonfire97 said:

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Quote:

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Not 75 bps, not 100. We need 500. The Fed will admit to 9.1%, but we all know it's much higher. They have no control over inflation. There will be no soft landing.

Our options are to get ahead of this thing now and have a terrible correction, or continue raising rates a few basis points and chase inflation for a few years and have a potentially country-ending type of event happen at some point down the road.

I personally stand to make a lot more money with low interest rates, but this is the right thing to do for our country and our future, and it needs to be done sooner rather than later. The longer we wait, the worse it will be. To use Dr. Mark Dotzour's analogy, our country has had its face in the pile of cocaine for way too long. Time to go to rehab.

---

I couldn't have said this any better myself. Gas prices didn't cause this inflation. Supply chain issues did not cause this inflation. Here is the said cocaine pile that caused this inflation:

M2 (M2SL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Unreal how some people can't understand how the # of dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services causes inflation. Goodness.

---

It's completely and utterly ignored at this point. Had another call with GS today...all about inflation and recession.

The printing of all that money was not mentioned ONCE as the cause or even a cause.

They did inform us though that inflation has peaked and they are projecting a tail off starting this month. Also recession is not likely at only a 25% chance. Apparently, the NBER, who gets the official call on recession, does not use the 2-quarter GDP rule of thumb so I'm not sure when that got jettisoned. They use a variety of indicators before they officially call a recession and only a few of those indicators have been triggered.

So, I guess we are all good.

YouBet said:

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Bonfire97 said:

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Quote:

---

Not 75 bps, not 100. We need 500. The Fed will admit to 9.1%, but we all know it's much higher. They have no control over inflation. There will be no soft landing.

Our options are to get ahead of this thing now and have a terrible correction, or continue raising rates a few basis points and chase inflation for a few years and have a potentially country-ending type of event happen at some point down the road.

I personally stand to make a lot more money with low interest rates, but this is the right thing to do for our country and our future, and it needs to be done sooner rather than later. The longer we wait, the worse it will be. To use Dr. Mark Dotzour's analogy, our country has had its face in the pile of cocaine for way too long. Time to go to rehab.

---

I couldn't have said this any better myself. Gas prices didn't cause this inflation. Supply chain issues did not cause this inflation. Here is the said cocaine pile that caused this inflation:

M2 (M2SL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Unreal how some people can't understand how the # of dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services causes inflation. Goodness.

---

It's completely and utterly ignored at this point. Had another call with GS today...all about inflation and recession.

The printing of all that money was not mentioned ONCE as the cause or even a cause.

They did inform us though that inflation has peaked and they are projecting a tail off starting this month. Also recession is not likely at only a 25% chance. Apparently, the NBER, who gets the official call on recession, does not use the 2-quarter GDP rule of thumb so I'm not sure when that got jettisoned. They use a variety of indicators before they officially call a recession and only a few of those indicators have been triggered.

So, I guess we are all good.

---

more gaslighting from the ruling Junta

You have seen a 20-30% retracement in commodities which drive one side of the equation bubble. The key drivers of food and energy cannot be printed and forcing a depression with a 500 bps rate increase will not solve the lack of capital investment. It will actually create longer term effects as you discourage key investment which is needed.

People always talk about raising the fed fund so high in the early 80s to combat inflation. It was actually a combination of 10 years of intense capex in energy + other commodities which eased the supply side of the equation.

Now, housing stock is a problem and that also seems to be supply driven. I'm not an expert there but sure seems rent growth etc. all is now front and center core CPI.

I think we are topping for the short term on some key headline driver sand the july print will moderate.

Interesting OP because a rate move like that could collapse housing prices

Quote:

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The printing of all that money was not mentioned ONCE as the cause or even a cause.

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I just don't understand why we are hearing so many figure heads who should know better saying there is no link. They are not that dumb. One theory I have is that they want inflation and don't want to bring attention to the root cause. Creating persistent inflation must be somewhere in the playbook of converting the US to socialism.