Became very conservative in November 2021 due to my 5-6 year time horizon.

1,459 Views | 3 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by dlp3719
Gabster43213
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Am not considering going from 20% equity and 80% bond and multi asset to 40% equity and 60% bonds for the next year or so.
gvine07
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AG
Smart. That way you can lose money twice as fast…

Remember the S&P 500 took a couple years to hit the bottom in the dot com bust, and 7 years to fully recover. It fell from October 2007 until March 2009, then recovered to previous highs in 2013.

No way to tell if the bleeding has stopped. If you're still on that original 5-6 year time horizon from last year, you may want to stay conservative. Or not. I have no clue. But I don't think the crazy short-term swings we've had the last few years are going to stay.
Harkrider 93
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AG
Data is true above, but you are buying after a fall. In each of those previous examples, if you bought before the last leg of the fall (Aug 01 & Sep 08) , it didn't take long to recover.

Still risky though. This year set records in what it has done, which means that it could do that again for the next few years and you suffer.
As the waves roll, the eagle will fly to the setting sun.
dlp3719
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AG
FWIW, I think you are early. Certainly more room to move down.

S&P500 CAPE ratio is sitting at 26. Wouldn't be shocking to 3100-3200 on the S&P in the next 6 months.

I wouldn't be opposed to you moving some of your bonds to something much shorter duration because rates are likely to continue to rise resulting in further losses (likely) in your bond position.
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