This looked interesting. Thoughts?

former hedge-fund manager BTC insurance strategy

bmks270 said:

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If fiat collapses, so does Bitcoin.

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If they both collapse, you've lost everything. If not, why not have a little insurance?

The biggest argument I see for why it could collapse is from the wealth effects price of Bitcoin displays. The value of Bitcoin is positively correlated to overall wealth and a collapse of the dollar or fiat systems, would likely destroy wealth, and potentially assets like Bitcoin.

The pace and degree of that kind of scenario, balanced against what else is happening around the globe geo-politically, would have huge impacts.

Of course there are also substitute effects that would allow for cogent arguments Bitcoin would be more valuable in times like this.

if there was a fiat collapse, how much is a "small" investmet in bitcoin going to help?

Adverse Event said:

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WTF. pic.twitter.com/uLfJDB09fu

— Dan Held (@danheld) October 19, 2022

This might be relevant.

Also, bmks, show your work.

How does fiat collapse, in your projected reality, that takes bitcoin down simultaneously?

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This is lunacy. It immediately tells me which direction the fed is headed as well.

one safe place said:

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if there was a fiat collapse, how much is a "small" investmet in bitcoin going to help?

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Read the linked thread.

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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one safe place said:

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if there was a fiat collapse, how much is a "small" investmet in bitcoin going to help?

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Read the linked thread.

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Looks to be a bunch of people expressing their thoughts on events that have never happened: a fiat collapse and bitcoin rising astronomically as a result. One mentioned 130%, but based on what? Why not 10,000% or 70,000% increase, if just picking numbers?

one safe place said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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one safe place said:

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if there was a fiat collapse, how much is a "small" investmet in bitcoin going to help?

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Read the linked thread.

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Looks to be a bunch of people expressing their thoughts on events that have never happened: a fiat collapse and bitcoin rising astronomically as a result. One mentioned 130%, but based on what? Why not 10,000% or 70,000% increase, if just picking numbers?

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It seems to me that the exact numbers are not as important as the concept. 1% looks like cheap insurance against a fiat collapse. Some gold and silver could serve a similar purpose. Consider that ~40% of the USD to ever exist have been printed in the last two years.

Isn't it true that in a fiat credit-based monetary system, the money is programmed to debase and, if history is any guide, will eventually go to zero? I'm not trying to be argumentative. I really want to know if this is not correct.

Still waiting for someone, anyone, to demonstrate how to value BTC. An investment without any current or future cashflow. A currency that can't use traditional PPP or IRP valuations.

northeastag said:

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Still waiting for someone, anyone, to demonstrate how to value BTC. An investment without any current or future cashflow. A currency that can't use traditional PPP or IRP valuations.

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That's because it's irrelevant to many of us as an investment to make USD. Thus, your premise is flawed.

My allocation of BTC is insurance (probably a flyer pick) on it being the back door out of our current currency time bomb.

Threads like this make me wonder what people envision when they picture a currency collapse. That is where this analysis must start. So to the OP and anyone else that sees a currency collapse in our future what does that look like? Play it out in your mind and tell us what you see. This is where the conversation begins.

Thanks!

northeastag said:

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Still waiting for someone, anyone, to demonstrate how to value BTC. An investment without any current or future cashflow. A currency that can't use traditional PPP or IRP valuations.

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As I understand it, it is a savings technology not an investment. It is an alternative to the melting ice cube known as the US dollar.

There would be no need to "invest" if the money were not debased such that people had to chase returns in an effort to keep pace with inflation. BTC has a fixed supply and a programmed progressively diminishing supply distribution.

Imagine if you could buy a nice house in 1950 for $20k. If not for inflation, you could take that $20k today and buy the same quality house (or perhaps better due to improved technology). If you could do that, why would you feel the need to risk your money to chase returns?

LOYAL AG said:

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Threads like this make me wonder what people envision when they picture a currency collapse. That is where this analysis must start. So to the OP and anyone else that sees a currency collapse in our future what does that look like? Play it out in your mind and tell us what you see. This is where the conversation begins.

Thanks!

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The fact that I cannot envision what my life would look like exactly if I were to become paralyzed in a car wreck does not prevent me from maintaining disability insurance. I see putting say 1% into BTC as similar. I don't need to predict all the details to conclude it is a reasonable asymmetric bet.

LOYAL AG said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Threads like this make me wonder what people envision when they picture a currency collapse. That is where this analysis must start. So to the OP and anyone else that sees a currency collapse in our future what does that look like? Play it out in your mind and tell us what you see. This is where the conversation begins.

Thanks!

---

The fact that I cannot envision what my life would look like exactly if I were to become paralyzed in a car wreck does not prevent me from maintaining disability insurance. I see putting say 1% into BTC as similar. I don't need to predict all the details to conclude it is a reasonable asymmetric bet.

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Flawed analogy. Here's where I was going with the question.

What does a currency collapse look like? Well historically it looks like war and famine. Death and destruction. Those things don't look in any way like modern society where we have, among other things, a functioning electrical grid which is a requirement for BTC to even matter. I can't envision a world where the currency has collapsed and society still functions as it does today which makes your insurance policy worthless. That's what I'm getting at. There are no hedges to protect wealth against a collapse of the USD, that leads to war and destruction on a global scale and at that point survival is all you'll care about. Food, guns and ammo. Everything else is meaningless.

That's my version of how a currency collapse plays out. So how do you see this playing out where you can actually have BTC and use it for something? I'm not a gold bug either, it's no more valuable to me than BTC. Food, guns and ammo. Survival is all we'll really care about if the USD collapses.

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I see your point. I don't think this is necessarily binary, where 1 is everything is A ok and 0 is the end of the world as we know it. I'll put some thought into this and reply when I can. Thanks for your input on this.

jagvocate said:

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The words we are looking for are "Physical Gold and Silver, In My Possession"

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And ammo. Lots of ammo. In the event of a currency collapse the idea of a smooth transition to crypto is laughable. The underlying infrastructure isn't there, and we're realistically decades away from it being there.

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Threads like this make me wonder what people envision when they picture a currency collapse. That is where this analysis must start. So to the OP and anyone else that sees a currency collapse in our future what does that look like? Play it out in your mind and tell us what you see. This is where the conversation begins.

Thanks!

---

The fact that I cannot envision what my life would look like exactly if I were to become paralyzed in a car wreck does not prevent me from maintaining disability insurance. I see putting say 1% into BTC as similar. I don't need to predict all the details to conclude it is a reasonable asymmetric bet.

---

Flawed analogy. Here's where I was going with the question.

What does a currency collapse look like? Well historically it looks like war and famine. Death and destruction. Those things don't look in any way like modern society where we have, among other things, a functioning electrical grid which is a requirement for BTC to even matter. I can't envision a world where the currency has collapsed and society still functions as it does today which makes your insurance policy worthless. That's what I'm getting at. There are no hedges to protect wealth against a collapse of the USD, that leads to war and destruction on a global scale and at that point survival is all you'll care about. Food, guns and ammo. Everything else is meaningless.

That's my version of how a currency collapse plays out. So how do you see this playing out where you can actually have BTC and use it for something? I'm not a gold bug either, it's no more valuable to me than BTC. Food, guns and ammo. Survival is all we'll really care about if the USD collapses.

---

I see your point. I don't think this is necessarily binary, where 1 is everything is A ok and 0 is the end of the world as we know it. I'll put some thought into this and reply when I can. Thanks for your input on this.

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Agree on this being non-binary and that's frankly one of my fatal flaws. I tend to boil things down to 2-3 options and drive on towards one of those options. That's really why I asked the question without giving my version.

Look forward to the discussion.

LOYAL AG said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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LOYAL AG said:

---

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

Threads like this make me wonder what people envision when they picture a currency collapse. That is where this analysis must start. So to the OP and anyone else that sees a currency collapse in our future what does that look like? Play it out in your mind and tell us what you see. This is where the conversation begins.

Thanks!

---

The fact that I cannot envision what my life would look like exactly if I were to become paralyzed in a car wreck does not prevent me from maintaining disability insurance. I see putting say 1% into BTC as similar. I don't need to predict all the details to conclude it is a reasonable asymmetric bet.

---

Flawed analogy. Here's where I was going with the question.

What does a currency collapse look like? Well historically it looks like war and famine. Death and destruction. Those things don't look in any way like modern society where we have, among other things, a functioning electrical grid which is a requirement for BTC to even matter. I can't envision a world where the currency has collapsed and society still functions as it does today which makes your insurance policy worthless. That's what I'm getting at. There are no hedges to protect wealth against a collapse of the USD, that leads to war and destruction on a global scale and at that point survival is all you'll care about. Food, guns and ammo. Everything else is meaningless.

That's my version of how a currency collapse plays out. So how do you see this playing out where you can actually have BTC and use it for something? I'm not a gold bug either, it's no more valuable to me than BTC. Food, guns and ammo. Survival is all we'll really care about if the USD collapses.

---

I see your point. I don't think this is necessarily binary, where 1 is everything is A ok and 0 is the end of the world as we know it. I'll put some thought into this and reply when I can. Thanks for your input on this.

---

Agree on this being non-binary and that's frankly one of my fatal flaws. I tend to boil things down to 2-3 options and drive on towards one of those options. That's really why I asked the question without giving my version.

Look forward to the discussion.

---

1. Dollar milkshake theory plays out -> Bitcoin drinks that milkshake as fewer trust the US govt and policies domestically and globally.

2. Complete chaos and anarchy and death and destruction, Bitcoin doesn't die because theres internet somewhere and/or internet architecture is quickly rebuilt and the nodes in space and nodes in hardened infrastructure (underground/faraday-caged) are able to communicate, bringing the bitcoin network up before any other monetary network or system can be built from scratch/flourish.

3. Fiats switch to CBDC's, creating demand for censorship resistant monetary features, leading to bitcoin dominance.

in all scenarios, there's a currency collapse as Fiat has had the light shown on it and proven to be an unacceptable measure of human energetic output due to its bottomless ability to print money.

Fiat collapse is a certainty, imo.
It cannot maintain it's stature or integrity, too many people are too informed.

Adverse Event said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

Threads like this make me wonder what people envision when they picture a currency collapse. That is where this analysis must start. So to the OP and anyone else that sees a currency collapse in our future what does that look like? Play it out in your mind and tell us what you see. This is where the conversation begins.

Thanks!

---

The fact that I cannot envision what my life would look like exactly if I were to become paralyzed in a car wreck does not prevent me from maintaining disability insurance. I see putting say 1% into BTC as similar. I don't need to predict all the details to conclude it is a reasonable asymmetric bet.

---

Flawed analogy. Here's where I was going with the question.

What does a currency collapse look like? Well historically it looks like war and famine. Death and destruction. Those things don't look in any way like modern society where we have, among other things, a functioning electrical grid which is a requirement for BTC to even matter. I can't envision a world where the currency has collapsed and society still functions as it does today which makes your insurance policy worthless. That's what I'm getting at. There are no hedges to protect wealth against a collapse of the USD, that leads to war and destruction on a global scale and at that point survival is all you'll care about. Food, guns and ammo. Everything else is meaningless.

That's my version of how a currency collapse plays out. So how do you see this playing out where you can actually have BTC and use it for something? I'm not a gold bug either, it's no more valuable to me than BTC. Food, guns and ammo. Survival is all we'll really care about if the USD collapses.

---

I see your point. I don't think this is necessarily binary, where 1 is everything is A ok and 0 is the end of the world as we know it. I'll put some thought into this and reply when I can. Thanks for your input on this.

---

Agree on this being non-binary and that's frankly one of my fatal flaws. I tend to boil things down to 2-3 options and drive on towards one of those options. That's really why I asked the question without giving my version.

Look forward to the discussion.

---

1. Dollar milkshake theory plays out -> Bitcoin drinks that milkshake as fewer trust the US govt and policies domestically and globally.

2. Complete chaos and anarchy and death and destruction, Bitcoin doesn't die because theres internet somewhere and/or internet architecture is quickly rebuilt and the nodes in space and nodes in hardened infrastructure (underground/faraday-caged) are able to communicate, bringing the bitcoin network up before any other monetary network or system can be built from scratch/flourish.

3. Fiats switch to CBDC's, creating demand for censorship resistant monetary features, leading to bitcoin dominance.

in all scenarios, there's a currency collapse as Fiat has had the light shown on it and proven to be an unacceptable measure of human energetic output due to its bottomless ability to print money.

Fiat collapse is a certainty, imo.
It cannot maintain it's stature or integrity, too many people are too informed.

---

If the dollar milkshake theory plays out, I'd expect the US dollar to get stronger as it sucks value from other currencies. BTC will also increase in price as weaker currencies de-monetize. Then, the USD will fail and BTC will de-monetize the dollar such that BTC increases in price even more.

LOYAL AG said:

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Adverse Event said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

Threads like this make me wonder what people envision when they picture a currency collapse. That is where this analysis must start. So to the OP and anyone else that sees a currency collapse in our future what does that look like? Play it out in your mind and tell us what you see. This is where the conversation begins.

Thanks!

---

The fact that I cannot envision what my life would look like exactly if I were to become paralyzed in a car wreck does not prevent me from maintaining disability insurance. I see putting say 1% into BTC as similar. I don't need to predict all the details to conclude it is a reasonable asymmetric bet.

---

Flawed analogy. Here's where I was going with the question.

What does a currency collapse look like? Well historically it looks like war and famine. Death and destruction. Those things don't look in any way like modern society where we have, among other things, a functioning electrical grid which is a requirement for BTC to even matter. I can't envision a world where the currency has collapsed and society still functions as it does today which makes your insurance policy worthless. That's what I'm getting at. There are no hedges to protect wealth against a collapse of the USD, that leads to war and destruction on a global scale and at that point survival is all you'll care about. Food, guns and ammo. Everything else is meaningless.

That's my version of how a currency collapse plays out. So how do you see this playing out where you can actually have BTC and use it for something? I'm not a gold bug either, it's no more valuable to me than BTC. Food, guns and ammo. Survival is all we'll really care about if the USD collapses.

---

I see your point. I don't think this is necessarily binary, where 1 is everything is A ok and 0 is the end of the world as we know it. I'll put some thought into this and reply when I can. Thanks for your input on this.

---

Agree on this being non-binary and that's frankly one of my fatal flaws. I tend to boil things down to 2-3 options and drive on towards one of those options. That's really why I asked the question without giving my version.

Look forward to the discussion.

---

1. Dollar milkshake theory plays out -> Bitcoin drinks that milkshake as fewer trust the US govt and policies domestically and globally.

2. Complete chaos and anarchy and death and destruction, Bitcoin doesn't die because theres internet somewhere and/or internet architecture is quickly rebuilt and the nodes in space and nodes in hardened infrastructure (underground/faraday-caged) are able to communicate, bringing the bitcoin network up before any other monetary network or system can be built from scratch/flourish.

3. Fiats switch to CBDC's, creating demand for censorship resistant monetary features, leading to bitcoin dominance.

in all scenarios, there's a currency collapse as Fiat has had the light shown on it and proven to be an unacceptable measure of human energetic output due to its bottomless ability to print money.

Fiat collapse is a certainty, imo.
It cannot maintain it's stature or integrity, too many people are too informed.

---

Forgive me but I'm just not going to reengage on this one with you. Not being a dick, sincerely. You're simply too emotionally attached to BTC as a tool to change the world and I just can't get there. Human nature. History. What societal breakdown really looks like. IMO all of those are on my side here yet you're convinced all of them will lead people to throw off the yoke of government backed currency which means we're on opposite sides of all of those and I just don't care to write nor read lengthy messages on why the other of us is wrong. I'd love to see the end of the fiat era but we simply aren't going to ever agree on this.

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I dont think anyone will throw off the yoke of government money, I think government money is so severely inefficient that it kills itself.

Death by autofellatio.

Also, not being a dick, but you have such a hard on for the theory that the Navy back the USD as a global reserve currency you won't explore ideas outside of that pillar of your reality. It seems we are both exceptionally static individuals, you resort completely to the past as projecting the future, and I'm resorting to the present and technological adoption curves to project the future.

LOYAL AG said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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LOYAL AG said:

---

Threads like this make me wonder what people envision when they picture a currency collapse. That is where this analysis must start. So to the OP and anyone else that sees a currency collapse in our future what does that look like? Play it out in your mind and tell us what you see. This is where the conversation begins.

Thanks!

---

The fact that I cannot envision what my life would look like exactly if I were to become paralyzed in a car wreck does not prevent me from maintaining disability insurance. I see putting say 1% into BTC as similar. I don't need to predict all the details to conclude it is a reasonable asymmetric bet.

---

Flawed analogy. Here's where I was going with the question.

What does a currency collapse look like? Well historically it looks like war and famine. Death and destruction. Those things don't look in any way like modern society where we have, among other things, a functioning electrical grid which is a requirement for BTC to even matter. I can't envision a world where the currency has collapsed and society still functions as it does today which makes your insurance policy worthless. That's what I'm getting at. There are no hedges to protect wealth against a collapse of the USD, that leads to war and destruction on a global scale and at that point survival is all you'll care about. Food, guns and ammo. Everything else is meaningless.

That's my version of how a currency collapse plays out. So how do you see this playing out where you can actually have BTC and use it for something? I'm not a gold bug either, it's no more valuable to me than BTC. Food, guns and ammo. Survival is all we'll really care about if the USD collapses.

---

Yeah, hard to imagine the scenario where everything is worthless, goes to zero, except bitcoin, lol. Not sure how you would buy anything with it (food, etc.) with a power grid that does not function. Not sure what you should have for "insurance" but it might best be something you can get your hands on. A lot of pie in the sky stuff relating to the USD collapsing. Very glad it hasn't.

Interesting thread. Following

Adverse Event said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Adverse Event said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

Threads like this make me wonder what people envision when they picture a currency collapse. That is where this analysis must start. So to the OP and anyone else that sees a currency collapse in our future what does that look like? Play it out in your mind and tell us what you see. This is where the conversation begins.

Thanks!

---

The fact that I cannot envision what my life would look like exactly if I were to become paralyzed in a car wreck does not prevent me from maintaining disability insurance. I see putting say 1% into BTC as similar. I don't need to predict all the details to conclude it is a reasonable asymmetric bet.

---

Flawed analogy. Here's where I was going with the question.

What does a currency collapse look like? Well historically it looks like war and famine. Death and destruction. Those things don't look in any way like modern society where we have, among other things, a functioning electrical grid which is a requirement for BTC to even matter. I can't envision a world where the currency has collapsed and society still functions as it does today which makes your insurance policy worthless. That's what I'm getting at. There are no hedges to protect wealth against a collapse of the USD, that leads to war and destruction on a global scale and at that point survival is all you'll care about. Food, guns and ammo. Everything else is meaningless.

That's my version of how a currency collapse plays out. So how do you see this playing out where you can actually have BTC and use it for something? I'm not a gold bug either, it's no more valuable to me than BTC. Food, guns and ammo. Survival is all we'll really care about if the USD collapses.

---

I see your point. I don't think this is necessarily binary, where 1 is everything is A ok and 0 is the end of the world as we know it. I'll put some thought into this and reply when I can. Thanks for your input on this.

---

Agree on this being non-binary and that's frankly one of my fatal flaws. I tend to boil things down to 2-3 options and drive on towards one of those options. That's really why I asked the question without giving my version.

Look forward to the discussion.

---

1. Dollar milkshake theory plays out -> Bitcoin drinks that milkshake as fewer trust the US govt and policies domestically and globally.

2. Complete chaos and anarchy and death and destruction, Bitcoin doesn't die because theres internet somewhere and/or internet architecture is quickly rebuilt and the nodes in space and nodes in hardened infrastructure (underground/faraday-caged) are able to communicate, bringing the bitcoin network up before any other monetary network or system can be built from scratch/flourish.

3. Fiats switch to CBDC's, creating demand for censorship resistant monetary features, leading to bitcoin dominance.

in all scenarios, there's a currency collapse as Fiat has had the light shown on it and proven to be an unacceptable measure of human energetic output due to its bottomless ability to print money.

Fiat collapse is a certainty, imo.
It cannot maintain it's stature or integrity, too many people are too informed.

---

Forgive me but I'm just not going to reengage on this one with you. Not being a dick, sincerely. You're simply too emotionally attached to BTC as a tool to change the world and I just can't get there. Human nature. History. What societal breakdown really looks like. IMO all of those are on my side here yet you're convinced all of them will lead people to throw off the yoke of government backed currency which means we're on opposite sides of all of those and I just don't care to write nor read lengthy messages on why the other of us is wrong. I'd love to see the end of the fiat era but we simply aren't going to ever agree on this.

---

I dont think anyone will throw off the yoke of government money, I think government money is so severely inefficient that it kills itself.

Death by autofellatio.

Also, not being a dick, but you have such a hard on for the theory that the Navy back the USD as a global reserve currency you won't explore ideas outside of that pillar of your reality. It seems we are both exceptionally static individuals, you resort completely to the past as projecting the future, and I'm resorting to the present and technological adoption curves to project the future.

---

That's a fair assessment of both of us most likely. To be clear though I fully expect to see a world where the USD is not the global reserve I just disagree on how we get there. IMO it comes when US Navy does not patrol global shipping lanes but as long as we do the dollar will be the reserve because if you stray too far we'll simply protect everyone but you. As long as we are the only game in town we're going to dictate how it gets played. That's the reality of the world today. The entire system is dependent on us and when we stop playing the game ends at which point reserve status isn't relevant.

I see us eventually pulling the plug because the American people have signaled for 30 years we're done with globalization and I hope that once we're done electing boomers that we'll see the US largely withdraw from the global stage. Once THAT happens I fully expect the world to return to the mean which will most definitely be bad for nearly everyone. Globalization has allowed the world to thrive in a way that it never would have were it not for the US, our Navy and the security we provide globally. This world didn't exist 100 years ago and it won't exist 100 years from now.

What we don't know is what happens here if/when the US retreats. IMO that's how the USD ceases to be the global reserve is when we're simply no longer interested in propping all of this up anymore and I think that day is coming. Maybe at that point we start to see a push towards something not called the Dollar but not before then.

Does the "Navy protects the dollar" build in things like "our incompetent admin is looking to cut spending on the Navy by 20-30%"?

We could be one conflict from China away from our fleet being at the bottom of the Pacific and Indian oceans.

Saudi Arabia protects the US dollar more than the Navy. That is, until they don't.

BTC is not a "hedge", it's a lifestyle. Reverse mortgage your house and spend all your disposable income on it.

bmks270 said:

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If fiat collapses, so does Bitcoin.

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Still stuck in the matrix I see