TSM and ASML. Adjacent companies to NVDA in the semiconductor space.

I'm not personally bullish on either, but I did see some chatter regarding them being pulled up by NVDA here. I've had more success with some of the "blue chip" semiconductor companies.

I have had luck with the following companies: Cadence, Nvidia and Broadcom. I'm up significantly on all of them.

RightWingConspirator said:

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I have had luck with the following companies: Cadence, Nvidia and Broadcom. I'm up significantly on all of them.

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NVDA has been insane. hindsight is 20/20.

Here are some names I did a little research on that might be worth a look. I know most of these are well known,

APTV
AMAT
CRWD
MRVL
TXN
MPWR
SNOW


MPWR was not known to me until this evening.

I just have a feeling in 5-10 years Palantir will be a monster.

confucius_ag said:

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I just have a feeling in 5-10 years Palantir will be a monster.

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Are you holding any?

Yessir. Had nearly 4000 shares. Have sold some on this run . Still have 2500

MSTR will likely be $1K per share by Fall of 2024.

I picked up the fidelity AI mutual fund

Software companies will dominate more so than hardware companies.

Don't sleep on Cisco, Meta, Arista, and Palo Alto networks.

Palantir will be good. Microsoft will win.

Fireman said:

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MSTR will likely be $1K per share by Fall of 2024.

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If you at all believe in Bitcoin, this is the way. MSTR will continue to mirror Bitcoin's price action. And MSTR only has 13 million shares outstanding…a little more than half of the total Bitcoins available. Will be a fun ride!!

Merrill reiterated their NVDA Buy rating, $500 target.

For every $1 spent on AI hardware, $8 will be spent on software.

Nvidia's CEO singled out NOW and ADBE that would benefit greatly from their AI partnership with Nvidia. I have owned both for a long time and added when I heard him say that.

MSFT is a no brainer.

I own others but feel most comfortable recommending those 3.

After the big run I imagine there will be some backing and filling. But it's very early in AI.

OldArmyCT said:

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Merrill reiterated their NVDA Buy rating, $500 target.

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If I had invested every penny five years ago in NVDA five years ago, I would be worth $35 million today.

as they say, hindsight is 20/20.

25% of my portfolio is now AI/Cyber/Semiconductor related

PLTR above 5% of my portfolio now, largest single position about equal to GOOG AMZN PYPL combined
still obvs didn't buy enough last year

I opened up a position in PLTR and ASML.

Why all the PLTR hype? Purely curios...

fulshearAg96 said:

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Why all the PLTR hype? Purely curios...

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I think they barely made a profit last quarter, but revenues increased 25% year over year in 2022.

I'd sell any AI stocks as it's in a massive speculative bubble

RightWingConspirator said:

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There are many that would disagree with that comment. Nvidia's revenues didn't just increase by nearly 40 percent because people are speculating.

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The company is trading at around 40X sales and 200X earnings. To say it's not a massive speculative bubble just because they had a good report of revenue growth is simply untrue. Both can be possible.

CISCO was going to develop the internet and traded at an outrageous valuation. Manages to grow earnings for the last twenty at a very good clip. Too bad about investors that got in when it was at its peak in 2000. That was a high price that they could not come close to justifying.

NVIDIA is just another highly speculative, highly crowded FOMO trade that will burn investors badly in the long-term if they are buying at current prices and the AI rainbows and unicorns dream narrative.

(1a) Cisco

During the dot-com bubble, Cisco was one of the most popular stocks, reaching a peak price to sales ratio of 38x (same as Nvidia today). It would go on to suffer a 90% drawdown & 23 years later, it remains below its 2000 peak. $CSCO

Video: https://t.co/NWVbslG7ni pic.twitter.com/h0x7fctmOQ

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) June 9, 2023

Yup, by no means am I an expert, but Barrons had an article just the other day saying AI stocks are not any where near as richly valued as conventional wisdom would have us think. My point is for everyone who feels they're overvalued, there is someone who feels they're not valued high enough. Someone is wrong and only time will tell who it is. I'm sure the same was said about Amazon.

AggiEE said:

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I'd sell any AI stocks as it's in a massive speculative bubble

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Not all of them are in a massive speculative bubble

Man I checked NVDA today and got excited after seeing their recent run up.. So I go check my brokerage acct.. DOH! I sold all my NVDA shares back in October at $123 a huge loss!

I still have 166 shares of NVDA I bought at $25. I pulled out my initial investment after it doubled the first time (doh).

I am constantly thinking about taking my gains on NVDA and am glad I have only done so once so far. But I am thinking now is the time to take the gains and move on.

The following just doesn't make sense to me. Trading at a 8-10x multiple of Google and Amazon?
Google: MKT Cap $1.56T; Q1 Revenue $70BN; Q1 EBITDA $20BN
AMZN: MKT Cap $1.29T; Q1 Revenue $127BN; Q1 EBITDA $16BN
NVDA: MKT Cap $0.96BN; Q1 Revenue $7BN; Q1 EBITDA $2.5BN

Not sure why keeping it and setting tight trailing stop losses isn't the strategy here.

p-townag said:

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I think the Cisco comparison is a good one for a stock market cautionary tale. The difference with NVIDIA is that the demand for chips will continue to soar, regardless of the stock market. We're only going to get more reliant on chips, not less.

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NVIDIA doesn't need demand to keep soaring, it needs to exclusively take ownership of the entire marketplace and keep it that way. Unlike software with recurring streams, they only receive a single sale for their product as shipped

This is the semiconductor industry. NVIDIA will be just like Cisco and a cautionary tale in terms of overvaluation despite being a "good company"

Been riding the PLTR rollercoaster since IPO.

Also, AI is not a speculative bubble. Every tech company is implementing AI/ML into their roadmaps. We are consuming more data everyday and someone/something will have to process it to gain valuable insights.

Real-time insights will become the standard and it can't be done on the backs of legacy systems. That is why hardware will continually to be redesigned and has been since the first IC was built by my grandfather for TI in 1958.

Maybe the bubble will be all the startups trying to enter the space, but the big guys will be around.

Exponential growth in data = exponential growth in hardware = exponential growth in the tooling (AI/ML) to make sense of it.

Still hold 100 percent of my position at $418.37, but I have set up a trailing stop set at 7 percent.

Also set up a trailing stop at 7 percent for my AVGO and CDNS stocks.

trailing stops are for p@ssies

I'll be holding (or a bag holder) of NVDA for at least 10 years. The thought of missing out on continued gains far outweighs my fear of it dropping.

Well consider me one then. I've seen too many fantastic wins turn into significant losses. I'll gladly wear the "pu**y" badge as I'm counting my money.