Anyone on this board own stock in FIZZ? Their financials look good and I'm a firm believer that flavored sparkling water is a rapidly growing industry. Thoughts, both pro and con, are appreciated.

I'd invest in Waterloo but not la Croix

Celsius has been my best performer over the last 18 months. It's a crusher

I like Waterloo as well. Are they public?

ToddyHill said:

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I like Waterloo as well. Are they public?

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They're not. They were raising $100 million through Goldman a few months ago. Their pro-forma showed a ~30% IRR to the investor, but the returns were capped, which I didn't like.

Apache said:

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I'm a firm believer that flavored sparkling water is a rapidly growing industry. Thoughts, both pro and con, are appreciated.

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The flavored sparkling water industry took off about 7-8 years ago with LaCroix & they were followed by dozens of copy cats. It would appear that the market has matured & is close to peak at least in the US. Not sure what the global outlook is, but I think you're too late for much more US growth. All this in my completely uneducated opinion based on anecdotal evidence, btw.

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I agree with this.
When I started my current employer in 2015, they had la croix in the fridge.. that was my first exposure.

Now, at the grocery store, sparkling waters take up just as much room on the shelf as sodas, and easily 5-6 brands; store brand, la croix, bubly, soleil, waterloo, spindrift, sparkling ice, etc etc
and at work we have ~3 of those brands instead of just la croix

So I'd say it's at the peak about right now. 4-5 years ago would have been a good ride up.

All good. Thanks for your perspective.

Here's where I'm at. 66 year old white guy who is just not into trends. Just discovered the flavored carbonated water products and think they are outstanding. I'm hooked on both LeCroix and Waterloo. I go to my local Wal Mart and both are either out of stock, or just about out of stock. Further, there are more LeCroix SKU's than Waterloo. Of all the flavored carbonated products, LeCroix probably commands about 40% of the shelf space (of about 5 or 6 total brands).

Here's my question...based on what I'm seeing today, and the technical analysis is positive, how is FIZZ not a screaming buy?

ToddyHill said:

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Here's where I'm at. 66 year old white guy who is just not into trends. .
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Here's my question...based on what I'm seeing today, and the technical analysis is positive, how is FIZZ not a screaming buy?

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I think you answered your own question. You aren't into trends, and la croix is (not) a (new) trend.

ToddyHill said:

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Here's my question...based on what I'm seeing today, and the technical analysis is positive, how is FIZZ not a screaming buy?

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It trades at 35x earnings, so there seems to be some substantial growth or margin gains priced in. When I look at the 5 year chart of FIZZ at 35x earnings versus AAPL at 30x earnings, AAPL looks like the better buy. I own neither. Next look at BRK which has an impressive history (in just about any backward looking chart), currently trades at 9x earnings, and has a diverse asset base.

They sell water and they charge more than gasoline. $$$$$$

I have only seen FIZZ at Sam's club. I never see it on the shelf anywhere else.

With that being said, I loved it when I was training for my Ironman back in 2016/2017. The little plastic canister was awesome for storing sea salt in and made it easy to use while on the bike or running.

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I go to my local Wal Mart and both are either out of stock, or just about out of stock.

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Is that a sign of demand or poor resupply logistics by the bottlers?

Jim Cramer had AEO in his portfolio because his daughter loved shopping there.

It's dropped 41% in the last five years.

FIZZ has dropped 9% in the last five years and has no dividend.

Wouldn't touch it.