Congrats on retirement. As I mentioned in my blog article, if the hypothetical Joneses that you inspired were actual clients, we would have simulated other stresses to the plan. One of those is lower returns (but similar volatility) than expected over the life of the clients. When I reduce the expected return of the entire portfolio to 3% (from 6%), the Joneses still had money left in > 90% of the simulations (a great planning result). I was able to reduce their plan's success to < 50% by stacking a variety of stresses together on the plan (lower Social Security payments, plus lower market returns, plus higher inflation). That, however, assumes that the Joneses never made any adjustments to spending as a result of real world events, which isn't how people typically behave.

I also didn't reflect other likely adjustments to spending, such as folks tending to spend less on items like travel and autos later in life. In an actual client plan, I would try to have them break down their spending goals in as much detail as possible, prioritizing needs, wants, and wishes so that we can reflect those nuances and play "What if?" scenarios out more similarly to the way we tend to behave.

Good luck!

Thanks Jeff!

I read your blog post and found it informative and reassuring. I was glad to see someone else in agreement with the idea that I'm still young enough to be heavily leveraged in equities. I should be able to weather some volatility and come out ahead when I do actually need the money rather than relying on conservative but safe options such as CDs.

Thanks for your insight. I'll be following your blog

up-n-aTm said:

---

I officially retired on July 1st. Please let me know if I can add any additional information. I'll admit I am pretty concerned about my current exposure in the market with my high exposure to equities.

---

Good for you ! I was wondering what had happened since your post. 58 is young, enjoy !

I'll put a plug in for Jeff...

he's a good guy and pretty smart with the dollars...