Agricultural Commodity Trading

1,419 Views | 8 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by reineraggie09
StockHorseAg
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12:03p, 12/14/23
AG
Does anybody else on here trade grain, live cattle, or other Ag Commodities?

With China buying a record amount of wheat, the drought in Brazil, and other factors impacting the markets, I thought it would be interesting to start a thread here where we can discuss agricultural markets.

Right now I'm a little bullish on wheat futures, Russia has just started attacking Ukraine's grain terminals again, China is buying the crap out of our wheat and so are some other countries.

I think there is more upside risk than downside risk on corn as well.
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TxAg20
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12:31p, 12/14/23
AG
I used to hedge oil and gas as a producer and occasionally dabble in corn, soybeans, coffee, and sugar. I retired about 18 months ago and haven't made a futures trade since, but it still interests me.
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Win At Life
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2:04p, 12/14/23
AG
Pork belly prices have been dropping all morning, which means that everybody's waiting for it to hit rock bottom so they can buy cheap and go long. Which means that the people who own the pork belly contracts are goin' bat-shiat. They're saying, "Hey, we're losing all our goddam money, and Christmas is just around the corner, and I ain't gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the kung-fu grip, right? And my wife won't f... my wife won't make love to me 'cuz I ain't got no money, right?" So they're panicking right now, they're screaming "SELL! SELL!" to get out before the price keeps dropping. They're panicking out there right now! I can feel it! They out there!
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Tormentos
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2:20p, 12/14/23
AG
He's right Mortimer, look at it!
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reineraggie09
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5:47p, 12/14/23
AG
My dad trades Cattle Futures and literally nothing else. He says there is no way to keep track of multiple commodity markets at the same time with all of the variables, risks, and the like.

As a child of a commodity household, it is a stressful way to earn a living and made me chose a much more stable line of work even though I love me some markets.

As for what is going on, I have nothing of value to add to the conversation. Best of luck to you.
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shaynew1
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10:41a, 12/15/23
AG
I put some on to manage risk as a producer and then some spec trades. Most of the spec trades I do are spreads or crushes. They keep me a little more tuned into the cattle market and I don't have to feel guilty about long technical conversations with my broker. That gives me something to discuss with producers we sell cattle for.

Like reinerag said it can be gd nerve wracking. You can have the fundamentals pegged and get tomahawked by the technicals.

The smart money has a funny way of finding all your stops somehow.

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reineraggie09
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In reply to shaynew1 • 11:01a, 12/15/23
AG
shaynew1 said:
I put some on to manage risk as a producer and then some spec trades. Most of the spec trades I do are spreads or crushes. They keep me a little more tuned into the cattle market and I don't have to feel guilty about long technical conversations with my broker. That gives me something to discuss with producers we sell cattle for.

Like reinerag said it can be gd nerve wracking. You can have the fundamentals pegged and get tomahawked by the technicals.

The smart money has a funny way of finding all your stops somehow.



Or they can find one wobbly cow in Washington two days before Christmas…….
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shaynew1
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11:10a, 12/15/23
AG
I remember that day.

I'm getting itchy just thinking about that with todays expanded limits.
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reineraggie09
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In reply to shaynew1 • 11:23a, 12/15/23
AG
20 year anniversary in a couple days. I walked into the house and my dad was sitting in the living room with all the lights off late afternoon. I need therapy
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