It seems this thing is going to pass and has a price tag north of 3 trillion. Is this going to spark inflation again? The bond market seems to think so, as the 10yr is back up above 4.5%. Thoughts?
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Does "Big Beautiful Bill" set off inflation?
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Last: 7 mo ago by b0ridi
The SALT 40K was a big failure imo. Thats the kind of tax cut that will not create growth, but more irresponsible actions by certain states only to get bailed out by the fed, all of us
I say this being a republican....from what I've seen so far all the republicans got what they wanted. About the only group I'm not sure about are the ones who wanted zero changes to Medicaid. But it sounds like the changes there were soft.
So all of them should be able to say to their constituents they did right by them and get re-elected
Now, is that what this country needed as a whole?? nope. far from it. We all know it. They're trying to position that they are cutting spending but they aren't.
Kick the can down the road until it blows up. We only have 1 kid and sometimes I wish we had more. Its times like these I'm glad we only have 1.
So all of them should be able to say to their constituents they did right by them and get re-elected
Now, is that what this country needed as a whole?? nope. far from it. We all know it. They're trying to position that they are cutting spending but they aren't.
Kick the can down the road until it blows up. We only have 1 kid and sometimes I wish we had more. Its times like these I'm glad we only have 1.
Without considering any potential additional tax increase or spending cuts, the bill is inflationary. The bill is expected to increase the FY25 budget deficit from an already enormous $1.7T to $2.3T.
https://www.crfb.org/blogs/house-reconciliation-bill-would-massively-increase-near-term-deficits
I support DOGE's original mission of cutting unnecessary waste and fraud, but there isn't really enough of it to really make a dent in the deficit. To actually make a dent, we need entitlement reform or substantial cuts to the Department of Defense.
https://www.crfb.org/blogs/house-reconciliation-bill-would-massively-increase-near-term-deficits
I support DOGE's original mission of cutting unnecessary waste and fraud, but there isn't really enough of it to really make a dent in the deficit. To actually make a dent, we need entitlement reform or substantial cuts to the Department of Defense.
Yes.
Next question.
~egon
Next question.
~egon
Very inflationary. Particularly on the back of tariffs.
In isolation, probably. The move down in oil prices may mitigate every bit of the upward influence of the bill. That's yet to be seen. Oil has moved much further than gasoline but wholesale gasoline has already started the move down.
I think Saudi is going to do whatever Trump needs them to do with their ability to generate excess supply.
I think Saudi is going to do whatever Trump needs them to do with their ability to generate excess supply.
Or we could go back to a tax structure similar to the first half of the 20th century. Slashing taxes while increasing spending hasn't worked for 40 years.themissinglink said:
Without considering any potential additional tax increase or spending cuts, the bill is inflationary. The bill is expected to increase the FY25 budget deficit from an already enormous $1.7T to $2.3T.
https://www.crfb.org/blogs/house-reconciliation-bill-would-massively-increase-near-term-deficits
I support DOGE's original mission of cutting unnecessary waste and fraud, but there isn't really enough of it to really make a dent in the deficit. To actually make a dent, we need entitlement reform or substantial cuts to the Department of Defense.
That definitely won't fix the deficit as tax receipts were significantly lower (see link below for receipts and outlays as % of gdp) until WWII. Rates probably should go up a bit, but even getting back to second half of 20h century tax receipts, we'll still have a deficit issue. No matter how you slice it, we have a spending problem and the biggest driver is entitlements.cajunaggie08 said:Or we could go back to a tax structure similar to the first half of the 20th century. Slashing taxes while increasing spending hasn't worked for 40 years.themissinglink said:
Without considering any potential additional tax increase or spending cuts, the bill is inflationary. The bill is expected to increase the FY25 budget deficit from an already enormous $1.7T to $2.3T.
https://www.crfb.org/blogs/house-reconciliation-bill-would-massively-increase-near-term-deficits
I support DOGE's original mission of cutting unnecessary waste and fraud, but there isn't really enough of it to really make a dent in the deficit. To actually make a dent, we need entitlement reform or substantial cuts to the Department of Defense.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S
So Trump is draining the swamp by dissolving the country?
Dude doesn't give two rips.
This is worse than any previous prez
This all has to be the biggest political theater heist of all time.
Dude doesn't give two rips.
This is worse than any previous prez
This all has to be the biggest political theater heist of all time.
Everyone remembers that Trump went bankrupt on that Atlantic City casino right? He probably thinks the country can just do the same thing and still somehow come out on top. It's basically going to be our only option at some point. I hope I am dust by then.
lol, how quickly we forget the previous administration and the inflation reduction enlargement act.
txaggie_08 said:
lol, how quickly we forget the previous administration and the inflationreductionenlargement act.
Spend years *****ing about the direction of things and then fall back on "he's only doing the same as the last guy".
Learn about the Texas Nationalist Movement
https://tnm.me
https://tnm.me
The Big Beautiful Bill will result in a continued devaluation of the dollar. Use your tax cut dollars to buy Bitcoin, gold and real estate.
JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:txaggie_08 said:
lol, how quickly we forget the previous administration and the inflationreductionenlargement act.
Spend years *****ing about the direction of things and then fall back on "he's only doing the same as the last guy".
The deficit will become a serious problem for Republicans once again at the moment a Democrat is elected President.
This has been debunked endlessly.
Nobody paid those rates.
Nobody paid those rates.
Sapper Redux said:JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:txaggie_08 said:
lol, how quickly we forget the previous administration and the inflationreductionenlargement act.
Spend years *****ing about the direction of things and then fall back on "he's only doing the same as the last guy".
The deficit will become a serious problem for Republicans once again at the moment a Democrat is elected President.
And will stop becoming a problem for the media.
The Democrats are at least consistent in their calls for communism and ever increasing spending regardless of who is in office.
I brought this up on F16 as a reason why we shouldn't just trust Trump's decisions because he was a "businessman" and got flamed away. The responses were basically, well how many businesses do you own you loser.
I am definitely not bashing Trump on that comment either. I just figure that either A) he thinks he can't ultimately change the financial situation with the debt (which I believe is true because he will never get Congress to cooperate) and so there's no point stopping the train in its tracks or B) he doesn't care to change it because bankruptcy can end up working out not so terribly especially in his past experience.
So that's where I think his past experience is relevant here.
So that's where I think his past experience is relevant here.
Trump campaigned on eliminating the SALT cap so there had to be some give.jamey said:
The SALT 40K was a big failure imo. Thats the kind of tax cut that will not create growth, but more irresponsible actions by certain states only to get bailed out by the fed, all of us
Ag CPA said:Trump campaigned on eliminating the SALT cap so there had to be some give.jamey said:
The SALT 40K was a big failure imo. Thats the kind of tax cut that will not create growth, but more irresponsible actions by certain states only to get bailed out by the fed, all of us
They gave them more though
Real truth, only time will tell. The general direction is positive imo but the economic side of it… not sure. Didn't really expect Trump to reduce the deficit but did expect the government "investments " to actually yield better results and I don't see anything so far to make me feel otherwise. I do wish overall fed spending would go down … way down but at least I'm more on board with what the $ are spent on for the most part . Net positives versus major net negatives is improvement.
He was throwing out promises like a fireman throws out candy to kids at a parade. Did pretty much everything but promise to bite the head off a live chicken. Republicans (and I'm one of them) knew, or at least should have known, that he couldn't hand out all of those goodies and reduce deficit spending at the same time.Ag CPA said:Trump campaigned on eliminating the SALT cap so there had to be some give.jamey said:
The SALT 40K was a big failure imo. Thats the kind of tax cut that will not create growth, but more irresponsible actions by certain states only to get bailed out by the fed, all of us
A tax cut without a spending cut isn't a tax cut. A tax cut when spending goes up is an increase in taxes. - Russ Roberts
Yep, and the SALT cap came from the TCJA in his first term anyways.northeastag said:He was throwing out promises like a fireman throws out candy to kids at a parade. Did pretty much everything but promise to bite the head off a live chicken. Republicans (and I'm one of them) knew, or at least should have known, that he couldn't hand out all of those goodies and reduce deficit spending at the same time.Ag CPA said:Trump campaigned on eliminating the SALT cap so there had to be some give.jamey said:
The SALT 40K was a big failure imo. Thats the kind of tax cut that will not create growth, but more irresponsible actions by certain states only to get bailed out by the fed, all of us
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